[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Thanks for calling me sir but you're making me feel like my dad! Lol

I am not saying it's only due to the shooting percentage. The link I sent uses the exact same data Clutch uses to make his assersation. And for you to say that it works for determining the starting lineup bc it shows how good they are together but all of a sudden doesn't work to show who closes out a game better just doesn't make sense. You either believe that this methodology is accurate in showing our best lineups or you don't.

However, you said that "flow and the hot hand" are better indicators of who should play in the 4th. I'm saying if you believe that, then you should also support the premise that starters in a slump should get pulled if they're slumping and replaced by the hot hand. Just this season we have seen that with guys like Dion Waters, Victor Olidipo, Mike Dunleavy etc bouncing in and out of the starting lineup.

Also, I don't get your example of guys like Mchale and VJ. They closed out most of the games they played in. I think all of us aren't disagreeing with that. I even said in my original post that if you go by these numbers, We are better starting Bev and finishing with Lin. However, I'm not a believer in these numbers as I have also used them to show that Lin and Ronnie Brewer in instead of Parsons and Beverley gives us a better net rating than Bev with the starters. So are you saying that we should start that lineup? The numbers clearly show that weare better off with a lineup of Lin, Brewer, Harden, DH and TJ. Please see Row 1 and Row 6. We are 17.7 with Lin and Brewer vs 13.8 for Bev and Chandler.

http://stats.nba.com/teamLineups.ht...sortField=MIN&sortOrder=DES&filters=&Period=0

I would love to hear you explain that one.

 

People keep saying (including myself) that Lin is better off the bench because he would be allowed to control the ball and do his thing. I'm beginning to see or stop denying to myself that this isn't really true. Lin doesn't often get his chance to really play a point guard and his minutes or the way he is used doesn't play the role of the 6th man.

I really think it's the coach. Not only how he plays Lin, but the way he rotates the other players' minutes. It's the main thing that always drives me crazy. He keeps allowing players who are useless stay in the game.

 

I agree with you that given the type of player Harden is, it is better for the Rockets to have Lin come off the bench.

But I do miss how brilliant the two of them were sometimes able to be together last year. It was something else having two gifted play makers on the floor at the same time. The Rockets had to change their approach with the addition of Howard, and no doubt they are a better team for it. But I do miss those days sometimes.

 

You bring up a great point on why these stats also are skewed. Bev is playing with the starters and playing his natural position. Even when Harden handles the ball, that's ok b/c that is Bev's game- bring up the ball and pass it to Harden. He doesn't run plays (hence the low assist numbers) and he isn't a good scoring option (see last two games). Lin's game is running the offense but half the time he's asked to play shooting guard. That is 100% on McFail. I have said it a million times, let Lin play point for the whole game and Harden play SG. When we do, good things typically happen.

 

But if T-Man is correct and we shouldn't play Lin with Harden, we basically have about 8-12 min a game that we can play Lin...

 

Ok... Not going to really respond to this... I agree with Jeff... If you would like to continue the discussion and I would be more than happy to have a discussion and not an argument...

Thanks,


T_Man

 

I never stated that Lin and Harden shouldn't play together.. I am on the topic of why Bev should start and not Lin and how we can best utilize Lin's gifts and talents to its potential.

T_Man

 

I'm sorry if I offended you. I thought we were having a good discussion/debate. I'm not sure where I was arguing but I was making valid points.

 

Sorry I meant to say start a new thread about who should end.. No offense taken...

T_Man

 

Do you mean data or data source? From what I see at stats.nba.com, the 4th quarter net rating numbers cover 9/10 games for about 46 minutes. The data Clutch used (for his very particular argument) covers 17/15 games for over 240 minutes. Not exactly the same data.

For any net rating numbers, we require both games played and minutes played. That is the closes we can easily get without removing blowout wins and blowout losses, which would skew the data for or against either player.

When I look at the data, I see no significant numbers that suggest starting Brewer. In fact, there is no lineup data featuring Brewer for over 55 minutes of action over 4 games. Without looking at sample size we are both misusing the numbers and being intellectually dishonest.

There are only 3 lineups which have 100+ minutes of action. The top two lineups cover 262 and 248 minutes of action. (Something Clutch directly addressed in the article.) That is the data used by Clutch. But Clutch used the numbers to verify assertions made but he coach, GM, and players. In the context of the accusations that McHale as an irrational dislike of starting Lin, the numbers are indeed clear.

Ultimately, it comes down to how we judge the influence of a coach. The net rating numbers could tell us something about the intrinsic value of a player's skill or they could be telling us about the effect a particular system is having on player performance. The numbers are descriptive but don't give us any insight into causation. Clutch did a fair job of providing quotes from McHale and Morey to address that shortcoming.

 

Not sure how structured we are right now..

 

Also n9t sure how balanced we are with our mindset that Harden should shoot and distribute the most. That strikes me as unbalanced. A great coach would utilize his players' strengths. I do believe that having Bev in there for the last offfensive possession is not utilizing strengths. Lin, Cass, AB, etc. would have been better.

 

Sure the minutes are less- we are only looking at one quarter. But the minutes are even and clearly show an advantage. One could easily argue that Clutches stats are only based on a small number of minutes and games too and many have. So what's the magic number of minutes we should use to make an accurate conclusion? Realistically, an entire season- which is why this isn't a fair assessment. But if you think approx 250 min is then I think we will see a lot of other lineups that are more effective than Bev with the starters later on this season (but then people will be saying 250 minutes aren't enough). Bottom line is that this entire thread based on these stats really aren't conclusive and not based on nearly enough minutes.

 

I thought about starting a new thread but the last time I did something like that Clutch merged them. I agree with you. It is a different discussion so maybe I will do it after the game. Go Rockets!

 

Clutch has a larger sample size period. He also has a larger number of games. My statement couldn't be more clear. It is solely that sample size matters. You claimed to use the same data as Clutch and that is a lie. It is different data.

I haven't an agenda, here. You, however, clearly aren't in this for an honest discussion. Clutch based his research on stats and quotes from the head coach and GM. The bottom line is that McHale might be correct in his coaching and the numbers bear it out with respect to his starting lineup. That was the gist of the whole article.

There is an argument to be had about who closes games. Have it elsewhere. It is a shame what every discussion on this forum now devolves to.

Now... No more feeding trolls.

 

Thanks for the name calling. Not really necessary but if it makes you feel better keep it up. Larger sample size is relevant and I said so. But if both are small sample sizes then neither is very accurate. That was my point. However, you seem to have made yourself the judge on what counts as a sufficient sample size and what does not. Who really has an agenda here?

Neither of these sample sizes is based on enough minutes. That's my point.

 

and no one ever thought jeremy was the solution against memphis ever again! lol.

 

Lol, this thread

 

The numbers are clear, this team needs Jesus.

 

hahahahaha