I read a great article by a film critic one time that broke down why many people are shocked with awards show votes. I can't remember who it was, or I'd find it as it was great. Basically it said you can't ever underestimate the feel factor and the awe factor. If you go back and look at those nominated and those that win the vast majority of the time the actor that transforms the most and/or that tugs on the most heart strings is generally the one that wins. Sandra Bullock in 2009, Jean Jujardin in 2011 are some examples of "heart strings" wins. Daniel Day-Lewis (every time he's won), Colin Firth in 2010 and Helen Mirren in 2006 are "transformative" wins. You also have those combo-wins, which tug on heart-strings and are transformative. Like Sean Penn in 2008, Forest Whitaker in 2006 and even both of Tom Hanks' wins.
I think Jared Leto had an Academy Award role but I don't think his performance was Academy Award worthy. I have been raving about Jonah Hill and I am so happy he is nominated. He should win. His performance is all over the place and so multi-dimensional. Would be hard to see THAT role winning over the gay transitive with AIDS who has a drug problem.
I think christian bale really disappears into his character. His physical appearance his voice everything. He is the anti-will smith.
Agreed. I think Leto will win, but doesn't deserve it. Jonah Hill is the winner in supporting actor category (for the second time), yet won't win. Agreed. He is just as great as Daniel Day-Lewis in that regard, and the fact that he wasn't nominated for his role in Rescue Dawn is one of the greatest travesties of Hollywood Awards shows.
The SAG awards was this past weekend and usually it foreshadows who will win the Oscars. Looks like Dallas Buyers Club will sweep for Actor and Supporting Actor, and American Hustle wins best picture
Not sure why Documentaries can't be considered for Best Picture cause clearly, The Act Of Killing is the best picture In my humble opinion. An important film that needs to bee seen, just a gut wrenching unsettling piece of film-making. Can be viewed now on Netflix instant!!!
I've seen it, and I wasn't that astonished. He's dressed as a woman, I've seen it before. He plays a junkie, and I've seen better performances as a junkie from him in Requiem for a Dream. I think Jonah Hill puts on a better performance this year, and Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones and Waltz were better last year. Hill, Nolte and Plummer the year before that, and Bale, Ruffalo and Renner the year before that. I think he wins it because cross-dressing will be considered edgy or showing his range, and because the subject matter tugs on the heart strings.
