he doesn't need to state the obvious. the other 4 positions are set in stone barring any injuries does the numbers he just posted have an agenda?
Pay attention, this should be the standard for making a new thread. The X-Factor to consider is that Lin can be more ball dominate with the second unit and Beverly gives us defensive intensity to start the game.
He is right though, I do have an agenda. My agenda has always been to support what makes the Rockets perform the best. I am not ashamed of that.
@larsv8 I don't really understand the defense part. Are the opponent's stats of the whole team? Because I could see that the opponent score more if AB gets to play than we he doesn't get to play. Or does this include with
good stuff. i like reading the stats. but tbh, with how inconsistent our team is in general, and with the injuries we've had (to both lin and bev), i think we take these stats with a grain of salt both ways. sample size. i wanna see some full health. hopefully that starts tomorrow...and with asik soon enough.
What it means is that I used the overall offensive and defensive ratings for the opposition to assign values to the strength of competition. The presumption is that the team rating is an accurate assessment of that opposing teams starters which is who our starting lineup will be playing against. If one of the opposing teams had a particularly strong or weak bench, which is what is driving a high or low offensive/defensive rating, then that variable will be a little off. Overall though, I do not think it is enough of a weakness to dismiss the validity of the model.
No, rox4lyf is right, title is misleading. OP should have posted in the 'Should Lin be a starter?' thread.
So basically, we are better with Beverley in the starting lineup. (Per 100 Possession for per game statistics) Beverley - Harden - Parsons - Jones - Howard: (245 Minutes Played; +54 plus/minus) 112.9 Offensive Efficiency | 100.2 Defensive Efficiency | +12.7 Net Efficiency 48.0 RPG | 22.7 APG | 14.6 TOPG | 7.7 SPG | 7.5 BPG 56.0 eFG% | 59.0 TS% | 50.2 FG% | 40.5 3-PT% | 68.2 FT% 54.6 AST% | 53.3 REB% | 76.2 DREB% | 25.4 OREB% | 1.56 AST/TO | 0.363 FTA Rate Opponents Statistics: 42.1 RPG |23.5 APG | 13.0 TOPG | 9.7 SPG | 6.9 BPG 15.8 PTS OFF TO | 12.5 2nd PTS | 14.2 FBPs | 45.3 PITP 47.7 eFG% | 43.8 FG% | 35.0 3-PT% | 73.7 FT% Lin - Harden - Parsons - Jones - Howard: (248 Minutes Played; +17 plus/minus) 107.2 Offensive Efficiency | 103.3 Defensive Efficiency | +4.0 Net Efficiency 46.8 RPG | 20.8 RPG | 16.9 TOPG | 6.8 SPG | 8.2 BPG 53.6 eFG% | 57.3 TS% | 49.4 FG% | 33.3 3-PT% | 67.0 FT% 53.8 AST% | 1.7 REB% | 75.4 DREB% | 24.8 OREB% | 1.23 AST/TO | 0.155 FTA Rate Opponent Statistics: 43.7 RPG | 24.5 APG | 12.4 TOPG | 8.7 SPG | 6.8 BPG 19.8 PTS OFF TO | 15.2 2nd PTS | 9.3 FBPs | 42.7 PITP 50.0 eFG% | 45.2 FG% | 35.9 3-PT% | 70.7 FT% We are a lot better with Beverley in the starting lineup.
If you think Lin is the better player than you want him to have the most minutes. The problem is when Beverly starts Lin's minutes are not constant. Sometimes he gets 30 sometimes 15. If he is really better than it's ridiculous to give him only 15 minutes. That's the against him being a sixth man argument. I was on that side of the fence for a while but now I am on neither. The reason is Lin's inconsistency. He has games that are great and games that are bad. Some of that can be him giving way for Harden. But some is clearly poor play related. When he was supposedly injured I got that. But now I am not sure what it is. He seems to tire with a lot of minutes especially in 4 in 5 night type situations. Whatever the problem is his inconsistency makes it hard to argue he should start over Bev. And the sixth man sounds good for him. Perhaps the extra rest helps him to be more consistent.
Confidence. I think Lin has serious confidence issues. When he plays with confidence, he drives and finishes with authority. He makes good and crisp passes. He shoots better. When he plays scared, all those symptoms people point out surface. What's worse, when he plays bad offensively, he usually tends to drift on the defensive end. When he plays well on offense, he is more focused on defense too. I honestly don't know what are the factors that affect his confidence so much. If he can maintain a high confidence level most of the time, he can be a very god PG. I would say he should be the starter. For now, I agree with you that he is just too inconsistent to be a good starter. That said, I still maintain it shouldn't be about "fit" but about how good the guy plays. There is not enough evidence that shows Beverley fits better in the starting lineup.
My guess about Lin is that he is someone like DeAndre Jordan of the Clippers whose performance can really vary depending on the type of trust/support he is receiving, and the role he is given. This is just loosey goosey conjecture. But I think the environment he is facing now in the Rockets, where everyone is jockeying for minutes and role, might be the opposite of what he thrives in. My guess: he really believes that trust and sacrifice stuff he was saying in training camp -- and it was no accident that Linsanity happened when he was beloved by the entire City of New York, and the rag tag group of players he was leading.
As much as I want to say Lin needs to just man the hell up and not let mistakes happen, I really think coaching has a big part in this. Like everyone knows, he is really inconsistent but after watching last year where he clearly was benched for making mistakes instead of being allowed to play through them. I dont blame Mchale for the most part in the development of Lin, but he really doesnt have a track record for developing players. Either the coaching staff isn't really finding a way to help Lin improve in areas that he is lacking, or Lin just never will. In the beginning he was showing an improvement in shooting, but thats not coaching staff that is Lin training in the off-season. It shows promise when a player gets better in ONE off-season, but hes regressed and certainly shows up for 1-2 games looking really good then just dissappears. And dont say Parsons developed under McHale, because Parsons by all means already had the talent that he had before he even stepped on the court with playing time. I really dont see Lin staying here, Morey has been trying to shop for something better. It's clear that he will not throw Lin away for a downgrade though, he's been going after the PGs that are better than Jeremy. Mchale certainly hasn't helped in developing Lin at all, because he doesn't develop players. I dont think he's helped Dwight at all, other players haven't necessarily gotten better under Mchale, and the players that did improve it sure as hell wasn't because of the system that Mchale runs for the rockets.
Your right, maybe Lin needs more time to develop...or just stay as a "good" level PG in the league. I believe Morey was hoping to see more out of Lin, but with our roster its almost one year until its win-now mode. I think thats why he's been shopping Lin for PGs that are better. I think I need to emphasize that. lol
Good effort and analysis. I still think the best strategy is to start our offense on Lin PNR if we really want to contend, but we almost never use that as the main weapon. So unless there's coaching changes, Bev "fits" our current system better in the starting lineup.
