Not only is that all built around the worst-case scenario across the board, but you're both worrying about paying these prospects their salary raises (which would assume they are good), and worrying that not many of them will pan out at the same time. It makes no sense. Crane paying Tanaka $20MM/year is a good enough indicator to me that he's going to be willing to shell out what it takes to re-up with any prospects that pan out. It's also an indicator that he's going to be willing to easily exceed $80-90MM in the future. I think that can be fairly assumed. In no way will a single bad contract (worst case) just kill the whole rebuilding process. It's preposterous to think so. The potential reward far exceeds the risk, imo.
Thanks to new TV deals, nearly every competitive team will have a $100 million dollar + payroll. It will become the new normal, and mid-market teams like Seattle, Washington, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Arizona have no real case to be outspending the Astros significantly, other than TV money. Sure, some teams stifled by both bad stadiums and small markets/poor attendance will always be below the mean and will need to be more inventive/creative/accurate in their decision making (Oakland, TB, Pittsburgh)... but the Astros need to not only take advantage of their "smarts" in the front office (yet to be proven at the MLB level), as well as their market size, favorable stadium profits, and hopefully a lucrative TV deal.
They are points to consider and are irrefutable facts of baseball. • Prospects don’t all pan out • Prospects that do pan out can quickly become expensive via arbitration. And no, I wouldn't say I worst-cased the scenario at all. I try to aim for realistic outcomes, not ceilings or floors. If Springer comes up mid-June and puts up a 3-4 WAR pace to end the season, I consider that a reasonable outcome for a 24 year with his pedigree in his first big league action. But if he doesn’t set the world on fire in his first ML season that’s not unreasonable either. Heck if Singleton contributes less than 2 WAR to the big league club this year I won’t be surprised. That’s not a slight against either player; I simply believe in non-linear prospect development. For Tanaka, I believe any expectation of him being more than a solid 2/3 starter with upside his first year is foolish. But whoever signs him will definitely be paying ace money for 6 years plus. Worst-case scenario is the decade or longer periods of mediocrity/rebuilding that several teams have gone through. The Pirates and Royals late-90's/early 00's come to mind. An even more recent example is the Mariners; most of their recent top prospects busted and they just signed Robinson Cano. If Cano gets injured, their team is screwed. Think what you will but baseball history is littered with teams with BA top 5 systems that went nowhere. I don’t think Tanaka could kill the rebuild (your phrasing) but if he doesn’t perform up to the contract then it hurts the rebuild. Maybe not next year but year 6 the team could come to regret the contract like carlos lee’s.
Show me the money.... the Astros don't have an RSN deal yet and who knows when it will happen or how lucrative it will be. All we know is that it'll be less than the Dodgers RSN and more than Miami's TV deals. I don't even dislike Tanaka or think he'll flop. I simply believe you sign a player like him at a different point in team building. 70 win team on downslope: stupid 70 win team on an upslope: possibly a good idea 90 win team on an up or down slope: probably a good idea 50 win team with a $26m payroll the previous season: bad idea.
The Astros for the next 4 years are in no danger of having a high payroll, you seem to be against the move because the Astros are probably gonna struggle this year, and mediocre in 2015, but why would that negatively effect 2016-2018. If come 2019 when the Arbitration numbers start getting huge, Tanaka will be at the end of the contract. You point to the Mariners, but what about the Nationals. If we were to follow their trajectory we would be WS contenders in 2016. With Appel, Rodon, Folty, Tanaka, and Cosart (among other lesser prospects) there are of course no guarantees, but as we have seen pitching wins, and that is a potentially devastating rotation at even a 50% success rate. I just don't see 20 million crippling this team given how virtually the entire roster is under cheap team control until 2018.
You make two assumptions... 1. That the team from last year, with the low payroll, will continue to play at that level even though the prospects that will be added (for basically zero increase in payroll) will improve the overall talent. 2. That adding a high priced player will prevent the team from continuing to spend to improve, as well as to keep the players they have without selling off the arbitration raises. Yes, a lot of this depends on a TV deal being done. But, there is no reason that teams like Arizona, Cincinnatti, Seattle or St. Louis should be in a position to spend more money than Houston... given that a tv deal is eventually signed in the next 2-3 years (and likely sooner).
I see the consensus is falling on the pro-tanaka side; fair enough. I think we're all guilty of saying "you're assuming". It's true, we could become the next nationals. In a vacuum, spending another $20m in a vacuum is not a big deal given the current level. But I continue to believe putting that money into one player, especially one without any ML record is a fools errand. I do happen to think the overall product won't be as starkly improved as it appears everyone else does. I think getting to 70 wins will be a stretch. Why not just wait and sign a big FA when we're in shouting distance of .500 ball?
Maybe there won't be somebody who is as young/talented/available then. Tanaka is not the typical past-29/30 free agent that most teams have a chance to sign any given year, who usually have little upside and don't live up to the money. Maybe this team needs a big-time player simply to get to .500... and can start adding additional parts once they get there. Maybe this team could add a big time player now (regardless of team performance)... and continue to play add-on once the TV money continues to come in. If the team feels the guy can live up to the deal... there's really no "bad" time to sign him.
If they need a big-time player to get to .500, they're doing it wrong. I agree completely with the last sentiment though. Regardless what any of us think if Luhnow and Co think they can get their moneys worth on Tanaka then they should do it.
I don't think anybody knows the "right" way to win in an uncapped sport. Some teams only develop prospects from within, only to have to trade them as they hit their real prime years... and start the cycle again. Some teams don't develop anybody of note, sign all high priced free agents, and trade them for much needed youth when that plan ultimately fails. But if you're saying that this team would be doing it "wrong" by adding a high priced player to a roster full of prospects... not sure if there's another example out there to prove you right or wrong. Just don't think it would be as big of a gamble, unless this team decides to get the $20 million/year to sign him by skimping on other current expenditures (start dumping arbitration eligible players, not being able to sign draft picks, drafting only singable players, etc.)
Yes we know, this has really turned into more of a hypothetical discussion of the Astros giving out a monster contract at this point.
Oh, we don't? Now, on to the update: He's expected to make his decision on Friday. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The latest on Masahiro Tanaka, who will make a decision by Friday: <a href="http://t.co/YlElUCmxxX">http://t.co/YlElUCmxxX</a></p>— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/statuses/425308321898172417">January 20, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I wasn't opposed to going after Abreu, but for some reason Tanaka seems like a bad idea given the state of the club. (to me).
Speak for yourself. I'm just the kind of idiot that believes there's still a chance. Probably a couple more braindead folk like me in here too.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Stand down, folks. Masahiro Tanaka's tweet says that he "cannot decide." (via <a href="https://twitter.com/IchiroReport">@IchiroReport</a>)</p>— Robert Murray (@RobertMurrayMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertMurrayMLB/statuses/425646573494624256">January 21, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Define "money's worth". Crane has the lowest payroll in the league. For 2014 it's $14M less than the next lowest, the Marlins. $35M lower than the next one, the Rays. We have room to overspend on Tanaka. I agree we shouldn't be overspending on players that will block our existing talent, but Tanaka will still be in his prime when we're supposed to be better.
