I think you mistook what I said. That's what I'm talking about. Teams can only pick players when they're 20 or when they're 30. There's no in-between. The reason why a 30yr old "good" pitcher gets $10-15mil/yr is because there are no 26yr old good pitchers available. So you have this very limited FA market where only the top teams can bid on the few star players available. Contrast this with football, where every team can have big FA signings of players still in their prime. I was just pointing out that part of the side effect of the limited market is what will drive Tanaka's value way up.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Are the Astros gonna look into Masahiro Tanaka? Yeah. Are they gonna get anywhere? Just like Choo, quite doubtful. <a href="http://t.co/AQYssadBsV">http://t.co/AQYssadBsV</a></p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/statuses/416332106805964800">December 26, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Team officials involved in Tanaka sweepstakes say the Japanese star will cost a minimum of $17 million a year</p>— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/statuses/416547877624627200">December 27, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Verlander got $180M Felix got $175M While he'll be paid good money, I don't see him getting paid like the stars have recently. I'm guessing he gets around $100M (plus the team will get $20M). Of course, it wouldn't be the first time I've been surprised by the money thrown around in baseball.
Fair enough, and I agree with those numbers. I would consider those guys the elite and still see a lot of guys in the 15-20 million per year range as star level players. If the Astros were to make a run at him we would likely have to come in several million a year more than the true contenders to have a chance, and an additional year too. Can't see a guy wanting to change his whole lifestyle to come to America only to play for a record breaking bad team. And yes I think we are headed in the right direction, but if I'm from Japan what I'm seeing is a terrible team in the Astros
Money talks, you think hes gonna take less money to play for a better team? The quickest way for a bad team to be relevant is good pitching.
Doubt Crane is going to outbid the Yankees, Rangers, Cubs etc when he isn't making any money off of his Comcrap tv station.
Not saying you're wrong, but that would be horribly shortsighted thinking if that were the reason. Can't assume the tv issue goes on in perpetuity.
Can't assume it gets done quickly either. Zero sign of it getting fixed and this wouldn't be the first TV situation that drug on for years
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Since I've been asked: Astros remain quite unlikely to sign Masahiro Tanaka, regardless of whether they meet with him.</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/statuses/421439587479605248">January 10, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
How many years has it been now where we've received promises that Jim Crane would shell out cash for a good roster once we our farm system was built up? Well I would say our farm system is built up now. 3 #1 overall picks in a row. Let's go Crane. You want to pressure anyone to give you a TV deal, make the team competitive like the Rockets have done. Until then you will continue to draw the interest of the city in the way of a minor league team.
He's only owned the team for 2 years. It's not like we're talking about the Pirates or the Royals of the past with 20+ years of suckitude.
Yeah... but what has he done THIS WEEK????? I agree, we have spent a fair amount of money this off season. If anything, Crane has proven that he will sign people that make sense and is willing to spend to make the team better.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Rival exec pursuing Tanaka believes <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Astros&src=hash">#Astros</a> met with him, but is unsure if they made formal offer or not.</p>— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/statuses/424765102659600384">January 19, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Nikkon Sports (via MLBtraderumors) is reporting that nearly every offer for Tanaka is 6/100m or higher and that the Dbacks offered 6/120m. There's no reason I can see Tanaka signing with the Astros. Even with a new TV contract, it seems preposterous to sign a player with an AAV that's 1/3 of the total payroll (~$60m) to play for a team that could conceivably lose 100 games again.
That's just not a good argument. The payroll is inevitably (I sure hope) take a steep rise at some point within the next few years, and the loss total will take a steep decline. Who cares that he's 1/3rd the payroll at this point in time? Him being as good as advertised is all that matters.
Soooo many things I can touch on here.... It's about as bad of a risk management strategy as possible. The type of thing everyone here is hoping for almost never happens: a bad and low-payroll team ponying up a lot of money on one player. What if Tanaka blows out his UCL on day 1? The rebuild takes a huge hit. It's also not difficult to picture how Tanaka NOT being as good as advertised could set the rebuild back. What if he ends up as a good 3/poor 2? Then you've lost 6 years worth of payroll flexibility for a better Wandy. It's the same reason trading for David Price, while awesome-sounding, would be dumb. If it works, great, but if it doesn't they've screwed themselves. We all just have no idea what the "competitive payroll" will be. It could be $120m or it could be $80m. Especially in light of the CSN debacle and bottoming attendance, its hard to forecast a $100m+ payroll right now. If Tanaka ends up being a good 3/weak 2, is that worth $20m per year to a team that may max out its payroll in the $80-$90m range? The assumed decline in losses is reasonable but it sounds like a lot of people are expecting us to hit on every prospect. I don't expect the Astros to be an 80 win team in two years. The division is too tough right now and if Springer doesn't go out and hit immediately then club might not have any new impact bats in the lineup. I'm not banking on Singleton to be a ROY-candidate either. We're not magically going to be a 90 win team in 3 years and its very easy to see how Springer/Singleton not panning out could set back the rebuild back 1-2 years for the Correa/Ruiz/McCullers generation to come. The payroll will "inevitably rise" due to salary/arbitration raises. Once all the young prospects make it to the club and start performing, their salaries will go up. Everyone right now is making damn near the minimum. Castro is a good example, he got $2.45m in his first arbitration year. If he has another two good years I could him getting $8-10m plus in his last arbitration year. He alone could account for a $10m increase in roster salary in a 3 year period.
