Gary Kubiak fired

And that's always been my issue with AJ's ardent fans - there are a lot of WRs who have scored *a lot* of TDs with mediocre QBs/teammates, bad coaching... Gordon tied AJ's career high this year in only 14 games... and with guys like Hoyer and Campbell throwing to him and absolutely no other even remotely viable offensive threat on the roster.

So I think there's *some* merit to the Kubiak/Schaub blame... but I think the impact is minimal, and I keep going back to AJ being pretty pedestrian (TD-wise) before either/both got here. He's had five seasons of 100+ receptions, and his TD ratio those five years is 1:17.4.

 

Since you don't know the relevance of YAC average, let me explain.

This is your statement: "T.Y. Hilton-ish ability to rip off massive plays from near the line of scrimmage."

Guys who catch closer to the line of scrimmage, and especially one who has the ability to "rip off massive plays" will have a much higher YAC average than receivers who run deeper route trees. Which is why EVERY YEAR, the YAC average leaders are slot receivers, running backs, and tight ends, and complete receivers who excel at all the routes.

Another one of your statements: "He [Calvin Johnson] is not very agile and lacks elite acceleration, but his sheer size and straight line speed are unmatched."

Here are Calvin Johnson's and TY Hiltons 40 times and their 10 yards splits.

Calvin Johnson: 4.35 1.52
TY Hilton: 4.32 1.53


Megatron had the faster 10 yard split than the diminutive TY Hilton. Meaning his acceleration is on par or better than TY Hilton's.

Anyway, I'll just leave this to you posting lazily, if not ignorantly, and leave y'all to discuss Kubes.

 

There's a difference between mediocre QB, bad coaching... and scheme, right? Especially if you consider both are an issue.

As an ardent AJ fan I'm saying 2 things:

1. Look at the QB/coach just from a competence perspective. Matt had what, one good year from a TD perspective - 2009 when he threw 29. And that was AJs best year there, too. He had a year of 24 and a year of 22... otherwise never above 20. David Carr never had 20 or more TDs.

Meanwhile, Joe Montana threw 26 or more TDs 6 times. Steve Young threw 20 or more 5 times, including 30 or more twice. Stafford has thrown for 20 or more each of the last three years, including 41 one year. Brees is on his 10th year throwing 20+ TDs and 6th year at 30+ (and 3rd year in a row at 39+).

Warner threw for 27, 30 and 26 TDs his final three years... and surprise surprise Fitzgerald grabs 10, 12 and 13 TDs. I mean Fitzgerald grabs 97 catches and 13 TDs one year, then the very next year still grabs 90 catches, for more yards, but only 6 touchdowns.

Clearly, QB has an impact here.

2. Then, getting past the above, there's a further impact from style, right?

In 2012, the Texans probably best year, Schaub stays healthy, throws 22 TD, has a solid QB rating for him. Is he throwing TDs to AJ... no. Is it because he has another WR he prefers in the end zone? no. Instead, he throws 6 TDs to Owen, 3 to James Casey and 3 to Garret Graham.. and 2 to Foster. Over half of his TD passes are to tight-ends, and 64% are to non-WRs.

In 2009 when Schaub threw 29 TDs, Andre did better, but Schaub still threw 42% of his TDs to TE and backs. Andrew caught more than 50% of the TDs thrown to WRs.

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Look, I'm not saying Andre Johnson has no part in this TD issue. For one, he should be way more vocal about it. But that's his personality and some of that character makes him a better player/teammate elsewhere. But for two, maybe he should be better at finding that window in the end zone... and maybe that's a problem.

But, it'd be one thing if we had a Jimmy Graham or a healthy Gronk, and we decided to run a TE heavy offense (as the Saints effectively do now). But even with that, it's impossible for me to believe that had AJ played his whole career with a Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Montana/Young... heck even Stafford, that he wouldn't be a +/- 10TD a year guy. Which still might be under-performing by him, and you still might say not the greatest TD catcher, but at least not a knock.

The issue IS his quarterbacks and coaches.

 

I'm looking back over the last 4-5 years of YAC leaders, and this doesn't appear to be the case. Slot receivers are very underrepresented. RBs are very well represented, however. Which makes sense, since they catch the ball more routinely away from defenders/in the backfield. TEs are represented well, but to a lesser degree than RBs, because fewer of their routes have them so shallow as RBs or doing other things like chipping or otherwise not being shadowed by a defender. The best WRs in YAC seem to almost universally be those who play vertically on the outside, and not those who play horizontally on the inside. So that's your first mistake. Your second mistake is you're thinking that because someone has a greater ability to "rip off massive plays" that their YAC will be better than most by default. Simply not true. A guy like Hilton can hit on short passes *more often* than someone like Johnson, but the fact that he is catching so many shorter passes, which result in lesser YAC, brings that average back down.

In any case, the YAC stuff you posted doesn't make this statement any truer:

On the flip side, Andre Johnson is not, nor has he ever been, a WR that can, with any degree of (relative) consistency, turn a 10-yard slant into a 70-yard TD. Calvin Johnson can.

A fair point, in a vacuum. But I'm willing to bet the now 28 year old Johnson is not as quick as the 24 year old Hilton. I'm also willing to bet there's a crop of guys faster than Hilton, even. Just because you're not elite at something doesn't mean you're dog crap, FYI.

Look, being from Canada, I'm guessing the Lions are your favorite team, and Calvin is probably your favorite player or something. A word of advice though, don't take anyone saying he isn't the best at *everything* as some kind of personal insult.

 

I love that we always had Dre and I don't want to sound like I'm dogging him BUT, you don't see him breaking off long runs and getting into the end zone often. I know Kubiak would take him out a lot in the red zone which was BS but in between the 20's can't put it all on Schaub and Kubiak. But I do believe he would have more TDs if Kubiak wasn't so tight end happy in the red zone.

 

Regarding the TD issue for Andre Johnson. This offense never had much issue moving down into the red zone over the past few years. But how many times did Andre have a ball thrown to him in the end zone?? I can count them on my hands and more than half of those came from Case this year. No, he didn't catch them all, but to paraphrase Wayne Gretzky, you don't catch all the balls not thrown your way...

I blame alot of his woes on the fact that they were seemingly using him as a decoy in the red zone....How many times have we been clamoring for a simple jump ball on 1st and goal at the 5? If for no other reason than we don't do it and to surprise the defense?

 

Combine 40 time is sometimes different than on the field 40 time with helmet and pads on. They say our Martin is fast and he ran a good 40 at the combine but he doesn't look fast on the field. TY has a combination of speed and quickness which is dangerous. And I don't believe Johnson is faster than him with helmet and pads on...But both of them are faster than most on the field.

 

THIS...every other team has a QB throw fade's to their best receiver...AJohnson had his first fade TD from Case Keenum. Do you ever ever ever remember Carr or Schaub throwing fade routes for Andre? Furthermore, the Texans relied so much more on the run game and play action to the TE for TDs in the red zone. Put Andre Johnson on the Patriots and watch Brady abuse defenses with WR rub routes, crossing patterns, and bubble screens to get AJ#80 TDs!!! The Texans massively failed to utilize their best offensive weapon until the game was out of reach.

I guarantee the same thing happening in Detroit if the Lions pick up Kubiak to run the team. The running back and TE will get so many more looks. Calvin will only get his touches in the play action game, but he will primarily serve as a decoy for the run game, just like #80 was here.

 

I don't think you will convince Stafford to stop bombing it vertically to Johnson, ever.

There are 3 factors at play here:

1) WR ability
2) Offensive scheme
3) Quarterback play

With AJ... we know that the scheme was decidedly not vertical and his QB was also decidedly not vertical. The Carr days remain a mystery to me because not only were they so long ago, but that team was just... bad. I feel like holding the expansion days against AJ does him a disservice. In retrospect, as bad as those teams were (particularly the offenses), I'm shocked he put up the numbers he did. I mean, does anybody remember Chris Palmer's offense? Reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald being banished to WR purgatory the last few years.

 

How many 8-yard Montana/Young slants do you think Rice turned into 50+-yard touchdowns? I think we’re roughly of the same generation - so I’m going to assume we both grew up watching Rice: this was not an uncommon occurrence – it’s what defined his career and made him such an incredible weapon (Owens , too, to a much lesser but still potent degree).

I’m not dismissing QB play as a factor; I just don’t think we can outright dismiss that some of this (5%? 25% 75% 100%) is on Andre Johnson’s inability to create touchdowns on his own.

It’s a factor; sure. Off the top of my head, I seem to remember Shannon Sharpe being the TD leader with far more frequency than Smith or McCafferty during Kubiak’s tenure in Denver. (Not to mention, like Foster, all those RZ TDs Davis gobbled up on the ground.)

But there seems to be this idea that, “if only”… Kubiak’s system was different/better; if Schaub was better – all of those 14 non-AJ TDs would have absolutely gone to AJ. And while I’d agree that *some* would/should… I’d argue just the same that AJ has to shoulder blame for not creating TDs on his own.

Randy Moss’ TD/catch ratio in Minnesota (playing for a gaggle of QBs, none appreciably better than Matt Schaub) was 1:6.3. When he moved to New England, to play for Tom Brady, his ratio improved to 1:5.3. That’s essentially seven additional TDs over three years, or 2/year. Not insignificant: AJ would have totaled 10, 10, 11 and 10 between 2007-10 if you add two TDs to his totals. On the flip side, 6 and 7 these past two years.

But even if you add 14 TDs to AJ’s total (2 for each year between 2007-2013), he’d still significantly trail CJ’s pace (by 16 if you adjusted for the disparity in games).

I think any WR would obviously benefit from a better system/QB; but I also think we should be realistic about the impact and, frankly, more critical of AJ's role in this. I've long thought he's too often miscast as something he simply isn't.

 

Sure - but how many of these other WRs play in a system with - at its best - an absolutely lethal playaction that would spring them open 35+ yards down field because all 11 defenders were rushing to tackle a RB who didn't have the ball?

Again, it's about being measured: he's been hurt by the lack of a potent verticle game for sure; but he's also been in a system that has been very, very good to him. So if you want to say Kubiak has cost him TDs, you have to be fair and admit hes also created TDs, enough to probably equal out and leave us with... a 6-7 TDs/year WR.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. You want me to give Kubiak credit for the 6-7 TDs AJ gets per year? OK, sure.

Does that mean I'm not allowed to point out the fact that he could/should have 12-14?

It's about the number of opportunities. Kubiak's system has turned AJ into a 100+ catch per season machine at the expense of touchdown opportunities.

Not saying it's good or bad from a football standpoint, but from a HOF standpoint, it obviously is not good.

 

My point is that this arbitrary, "He'd have X more TDs with a great coach/good QB" doesn't hold much water with me. Again, the system may cost him TDs because it lacks a vertical passing game - but it's also created TDs that other systems simply don't provide WRs because of a lethal playaction... so where are these additional 6-7 TDs/year coming from? It sounds like you want to exist in a world where Kubiak's system has been combined with Belicheck's 2007 system and that has no basis in reality. Would he score 12-14 TDs in that system? Sure! And Calvin Johnson would score 22-24.

 

Yes, it's created TDs that other systems don't provide, but fewer overall.

From somebody actually throwing the ball to a WR down the field more than once a game? You know, like they do in Detroit, Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans, Indy, etc.

No. I want to exist in a world where AJ plays in a vertical passing offense. I never gave any indication otherwise. No idea where you came up with that.

On a different note; how cool would it be if BOB comes in and AJ immediately starts catching touchdowns left and right?

 

I for one cant wait to watch another team hire norv eh i mean gary and watch the train wreck.

 

i know nothing matters to hey now other than numbers and since numbers never lie and tell everything you need to know about what happened you cant argue with him about anything so not talking to him, so dont bother responding with "word vomit" or whatever corny bs you do...

to everyone else, i remember dre caught a TD pass against Tennessee, it was the fight game. he was mic'd up and when he got back to the sideline one of the coaches said something to him that was very telling about the way kubiak operates and why dre doesnt put up TD numbers..





he simply isnt an option, that was week 12...

 

Maybe it has something to do the Dolphins being 0-7 against the Texans.

 

One man's trash, another man's treasure.

 

Great idea. I'd be curious to see how Tannehill develops. It could really be good for both Tannehill and Kubiak. Somewhat surprised he'd agree to take his boy's job though.