[Hickory-High] Did J.R's Boneheaded Shot Hurt the Knicks?

if he holds onto it and takes a shot last second we dont ever get a chance to get the ball back

 

I kind of agreed with you.

It's a wide open three. Wide open.

The bigger mistake was the Beno foul.

The only thing I'd argue about in the analysis in the link is there wasn't enough weight given to the hot-hand theory. Smith was way off that game, and off all the players in the NBA, he's probably the one that follows the hot-hand theory the most. He's either on fire, or terrible.

I would say the home court advantage in overtime should be factored in more, but as he notes, the Rockets were the heavy favorite... and they had won the 4th quarter fairly decisively otherwise so were playing better more recently at least...

So, factoring that all-in, skews a bit towards bad shot because JR was so off. But otherwise, probably a much better shot than they would otherwise get.

 

its never a bad shot off an offensive rebound and you're wide open

 

I think he underrates NY's win% in OT, setting it at 30%.

I see how HOU is favored pre-game by quite a bit and how that translates to win % in OT, but not sure if these odds apply to this game. Specifically, NY has played pretty well when they beat SA and during this game-- the score was tied not because NY was hugely lucky on shots but rather reflect the actual play of the teams. Also, looking at it now in retrospect, NY went on to beat Dallas after this game so this is consistent with a view that they are not playing like a doormat team that Vegas pegged them to be.

Anyhow, if you change that 30% to closer to 50% or even 40%, I think the number would turn out significantly in favor of holding the ball.

 

Did JR do this math before hand or have privy to this information before the shot? If not, he should have done what is coached which I assume is to follow conventional wisdom. Even though the odds of this specific situation may have made the decision not affect winning percentages significantly, his decision should have been based on his prior knowledge.

Based on what he said, his prior knowledge was that it was a bone head move. Therefore, it is a bonehead move because he is not aware that it was not a bone head move.

 

It really comes down to whether you think the Knicks are good at making contested shots, and whether the Knicks would be able to beat the Rockets in overtime.

What's likely to happen is the Knicks will give the ball to Carmelo Anthony, and Carmelo Anthony will proceed to take a tough contested shot for the chance to win. Melo made only 1 FG in the 4th quarter, odds are the game would have gone overtime.

If the game goes overtime, I don't think the Knicks will win. The Rockets had momentum going in their favor, along with the home crowd.

The shot probably would not have been that big of a deal if the person taking it wasn't J.R Smith. He was 1-8 from distance, so obviously you wanted someone else other than him taking the last shot.

Udrich deserves equal, if not more blame for the loss in my opinion. It was an absolutely unnecessary foul that cost them the game. Smith's shot didn't cost them the game, since Knicks could have still gone overtime if they played good defense.

 

No offense, but did you miss Bargnani's shot a few weeks back off of a offensive rebound for a wide open three?

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If he makes that shot no one talks about it. He didn't, and now everybody needs a reason. I see why he shouldn't have taken it, but honestly if Parsons was in a similar situation and decided to pass the ball out I would be furious. I'm really split down the middle on this one.

 

they were up against the bucks. the game was tied against us.

he was ultra wide open. i mean yea they could've hold the ball for the last shot but look at how open he was

 

To me that shot was a wtf? moment.

 

I wonder why more people don't feel this way. They could have stopped them on the other side of the court and sent it to overtime. He had a wide open three and he took the shot. Not mad at that at all. The fact we won makes the win sweeter.

 

You take the last shot, although upon review it isn't as bad as I thought.

Even if you make it the Rockets have a chance to answer back. Taking the last shot, even a poor one, is the better odds given OT is the worst case scenario.

The foul by Beno was certainly the stupider play.

 

If Knicks was down by 2, yes, it would have been a good shot. You were wide open and in case you miss, you still have plenty of time left.

It was a terrible shot when score was even. You always want to take the last shot when the score is even. You either win the game or go to overtime, you can't lose. The way Rox was ISOing, I am sure Knicks would have more than 34.1% (J.R's 3pt%) of chance winning it in the overtime.

I thought even college kids can figure this out.

 

I liked the breakdown of the odds...I was surprised that game winning shots went in at such a low rate (30% according to the article). If they went in at a higher rate it would make more sense to hold onto the ball longer, but given they don't, it doesn't seem he made a bad decision.

 

I agree. The 30% in OT for the Knicks is the unreasonable number here. It's much more likely to be closer to the 55% that home teams win on average.

I actually did some calculations myself. The biggest factors on whether you should take the 3 or not depends on (A) the likeihood of making it and (B) the team's OT win possibility. You really need something like Warriors playing without Iguodala/Bogut, playing the Heat on the road, with Curry/Klay taking that shot for the numbers to make sense.

 

Bargnani is killing that team.

 

This situation is not typical. At the end of the game, its more important whether or not the shot goes in, as opposed to the number of points scored, than at other times in the game.

I think giving the Rockets a 70% chance to win in overtime is pretty high. They should be favored, but not that much.