Russell Westbrook has knee surgery AGAIN, out until after All-Star Break

7 games?? Wasn't it 6?

 

The point I'm making in bringing Lin up is that Harden's production in OKC is pretty similar to what Lin is giving the Rox, and if you just base it on that then just as Lin isn't worth 15M, Harden's production in OKC wasn't worth it too. In fact strictly on production alone I would put it in the 8M-ish salary (what Lin is making cap-wise).

When people say Harden is clearly worth a max salary there is the expectation he was better than he currently was producing at the final year of his contract in OKC, because as you said everybody knew he was sacrificing not just coming off the bench, but also part of his game in OKC. The question is will he ever stop sacrificing since WB and KD were staying long term? If OKC had kept Harden on the squad he would still be the 3rd option behind KD and WB, and I don't know if he will get enough touches to increase his scoring from 16 pts to your baseline 20-23 ppg, he was already hitting shots at a crazy efficiency, it was a matter of there were not enough shots to go around. Maybe Presti realized that although capable of much more, Harden will never realize his potential with two franchise guys already on the team, I guess he just made the mistake of picking WB instead of Harden as the 2nd franchise guy.

 

The point production was similar, but the efficiency numbers were very different.

Harden was logging 66% TS% in OKC, Lin was more like 55%.

Also, Harden was logging considerable time on the floor without Westbrook as the defacto PG, so he was not only the initial point of offense (like Lin), but he was also the focus of the opponent defense for long stretches during games for OKC.

Assuming a significant drop off of 20% in efficiency with increased usage and defensive attention would have had him clocking 52% TS%, which was still an obscene number. Whereas Lin might have seen his TS% dropping down to 45% with a 20% drop in efficiency... an above average number, but not all star/max contract material. I use 20% as a base decrease in efficiency as I believe it makes for a conservative baseline level of consistent performance once role and minutes are increased.

This is why I felt Harden was already going to be a max player, while Lin was most likely at an average/above average stage with potential upside.

As for Harden not living up to his maximum scoring potential in OKC, I think that's something that shouldn't have been an obstacle in relation to the construction of the team in OKC. The issue of sufficient touches becomes a non issue against the most elite teams.

The reason I believe this is true is when you're deep in the play offs or playing against top play off contenders going after a ring or HCA, the opposing defenses are so strong that there will inevitably be games where they take away one of your offensive options.

KD will have a bad game. Westbrook will have a bad game. Whether this is due to being cold or having an elite defensive scheme neutralizing them is irrelevant. It's at that point that a player like Harden becomes invaluable as he can increase his touches and keep the offense afloat. This was especially apparent during the Spurs series where Harden's impact basically carried OKC to multiple wins.

For me it's a utility argument. Harden's utility is marginalized with KD and RW against most teams... except when KD or RW are having a rough night, and against the teams where it counts the most. IE, the teams that you need to beat for HCA and to advance in the play offs and win the championship.

This is similar to Lin's role on the team. Lin's utility in terms of touches is somewhat marginalized when we play poor to mediocre teams... until Harden is having a tough game, or we're facing the toughest defenses, or the rest of the team is having difficulty scoring. It is at that point that Lin's value to the team is maximized as he can carry a significant part of the offensive load in terms of both point production and ball distribution. This is what we saw earlier in the season when the bulk of the team couldn't hit a shot... it was basically Lin stepping up to fill the gap that made many of those wins possible.

I think the error Presti made was not necessarily underestimating Harden's ability, as opposed to overvaluing Perkins' impact while underestimating that Harden's value came in the 10-20% of games that are most pivotal to winning an actual Championship. He got overly caught up in the dollar vs ppg argument versus the situational marginal utility of Harden.

 

Well their bad then, since they should have known. They only got to evaluate him every day.

The financials allowed them to afford all 4. The question is did they want to pay the tax to do it and they didn't. The odds of having a 4-some that talented and that young is rare and worth paying for. And if the rumors about the trade kicker are true then all they had to do was give Harden one and he would have agreed to their number.

No, but I thought he was one of the best players in basketball. He had just made the Dream Team. I would think a GM that gets to see him everyday should have known just how good he was though. I'm happy we had a GM who knew.

 

Lin is not the best example, Parsons is better IMO. Is Parsons right now worth max contract? I don't think so, he is good but, could maybe have a bigger role on a different team, but essentially offensive minded role players are not worth max contract. Harden was offered $13M per year but didn't take it, not because of money, but because of role. Players don't care just about current contract, but want to position themself to earn another/bigger contract once their contract is up.

OKC got better after Harden trade and was top 10 regular season team of all-time last season and were on pace to do that again this year. They have 2nd best defense behind Pacers right now, that was a pipe dream in 2012. Winning championships a lot of times comes down to luck and the best way to win one is to give yourself multiple chances. Keeping Harden obviously had very short shelf life.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Russell Westbrook update exactly one week from surgery: He's on the practice court, shooting free throws <a href="http://t.co/KcjK991dwB">pic.twitter.com/KcjK991dwB</a></p>&mdash; Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) <a href="https://twitter.com/anthonyVslater/statuses/419168683466838016">January 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

This could very well be the reason why he keeps needing knee scopes. He's not allowing his knee to rest and heal properly. I have a feeling if the swelling persists after the ASG, they might need to shut him down for the rest of the season.

 

If you have a meniscectomy then you can return quick, but you risk your future.

 

Yessir!!!!! Play time almost over for the Western Conference :grin:

 

Could be, but something I read 2-3 months ago makes me think they botched the original surgery.

The predicted ASG return could have been a very conservative estimate to manage public expectations. I doubt they are risking further injury.