[ClutchFans] The Chandler Parsons Contract: Salary Cap Implications of Exercising or Declining the T

Parsons is the most likely guy on our team, or maybe any team to already have an under the table but not in writing (McHale) agreement, we're talking about Dan Fegan, and people need to stop acting like Chandler is an idiot and is somehow some sheep on the outer that needs to be told what's happening. I'd suspect whatever agreement Parsons get, it will be a reducing amount each year to try and soften any tax implications from the other guys.

 

Couldn't be said better.
From a pure mathematical point of view, picking up his option for 14-15 is just a no-brainer. I don't think you can get a significantly better deal in RFA to compensate the huge loss of the cheap option.

I can't believe people are worried about Parsons leaving in URFA in 2015. It's all about money. You save big in 14-15, and throw whatever money necessary to keep him. (Even if he becomes a sure-fire MAX player, Rockets are still at a big advantage in retaining him.) If he just wants out or Rockets don't want to pay the market price in summer 2015, we can still trade him.

On the other hand, declining the option comes with huge risks. When you see an astonishing (close-to-MAX) offer sheet with a player option coming from a "dumb" team, watch Clutchfans implode.

 

Imo, RFA is the smart play here, you are tempting fates allowing him to be an UFA, and As a RFA, he wins by getting a better contract earlier and the Rox win by keeping his cost down a bit.

Great read as always Bima.

DD

 

Let him become unrestricted.

If some team offers him ridic money, let him walk.


We have bigger fish to fry. Love or Lebron

 

Another thread on Chandler Parson's contract!?!?!? This is getting as bad as all the Jeremy Lin threads!!! I'll be so glad when we trade him and all the Parsons extension fans and Parsons restricted agency fans all go somewhere else............................

On a more serious note...

I fully expect Morey to move heaven and earth to trade Jeremy Lin AND Omer Asik by the trade deadline for cap flexibility in 2014....not 2015.

 

Yeah,would love to Sign Bosh,cause I think he could Solve so many Problems for this team,he is a great defender especially in the PnR,can be a stretch 4,could slide to C and can score easily in the post

Better fit than KLove yeah I Said it

 

Let's take a look at our roster, and one should realize Morey wouldn't pay free agent money(market value) except for : stars at max(underpaid), promising rookie scale contracts(underpaid), minimum salary contracts with above average advanced stats(underpaid).

Asik has superstar like RAPM number and plays a position hard to fill. Lin was coming off a magnificent year at 23 years old when signed. And they both were offered contracts to scare away home team matching.

Unless parsons becomes an Allstar next year, I don't see how Morey would pay him market value. If so, That's more about 'human element'.

 

Boy, do I agree. The reason why people on Clutchfans naively think Parsons is re-signing for a $8 mil/yr (or so) is because they are sports fans, and sports fans are almost always going to be homers.

I put together a list of 2014 free agents a few months ago on this message board, and I explained why Parsons will likely receive a max contract (or something very close to a max contract) in 2014 (or 2015, whenever he hits free agency). Most of the people who responded thought I was crazy, but I believe I am looking at Parsons' value in free agency objectively.

I also concluded that Parsons at something like four years, $50 mil (possibly quite a bit more) appears to be an overpay, and that it might make more sense to trade Parsons shortly before the draft for a fairly high (mid-lottery?) draft pick, and to let Parsons' impending free agency become someone else's problem. In a deep draft like the 2014 draft, you are probably getting better value out of the, say, #10 overall pick on a rookie scale contract than you're going to get from Parsons at $12-$14 mil/year.

I still think trading Parsons in mid-June for a mid-lottery pick is the way to go, particularly if/when the team trades Omer Asik (along with Jeremy Lin, possibly) for players on rookie contracts, expiring contracts, and draft picks. Houston would then be able to sign a Parsons replacement in free agency (e.g., Luol Deng for something like four years, $36 mil, which is less than Parsons should get) AND they'd be adding whoever they draft with the mid-lottery pick acquired for Parsons. Deng + this mid-lottery pick > Parsons.

Don't forget that this is exactly what Daryl Morey did with both Kyle Lowry and Chase Budinger. The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior!

 

Is this a possible scenario?

I enjoy reading about the business side of being an NBA GM but it's hard to make a decision on what to do without doing due diligence and reading up on players, what options are available for who, etc. It can get a little overwhelming.

So without digging too much into it yet, is this situation below possible?

1) Pick up team option on Parsons for 2014-2015.
2) Sign KLove to max contract.
3) Use Parsons' Bird Rights to sign him to near-max contract.
4) Sign Jlin with MLE.

 

After you use cap room to sign someone (KLove) in this case, there is no MLE available. Instead you only have the so-called room exception of about $2.5M/year for 2 years. No way Jeremy signs for that.

 

Do we have Lin's Bird Rights? If so, we can we also sign him to a long-term deal?

Basically, how can we keep Lin on the team? Not a LOF. Just a Lin fan.

 

Lin is on a 3 year contract, so at the end of the 3 years the Rockets will have Lin's full bird rights. All they need to do is wait until the end of year 3, then give him a QO (qualifying offer) and they're free to match Lin's salary.

 

Meaning if he keeps playing well, Rockets won't be able to afford Lin, along with Howard, Hardin, new Parsons contract, and another hot shot player.

 

Agreed.

I believe this is correct. Lin's cap hold should be the same as any other player under bird rights that has an above NBA average salary ($5M or so), or 150% of his salary cap hit. In this case $8.375M x 1.5 or $12.5625M.

Players under NBA salary average are subject to a 190% cap hold, so a $4M player with full bird rights would have a cap hold of $7.6M.

You are correct. I keep forgetting his year at GSW. So he will be a 5 year veteran and fall under normal FA.

 

If the Lakers offer him the same money Fegan would probably sell him LA. That's where the bulk of his connections are. That and for the greater national exposure which again leads to these sponsorship deals. Parsons has been chasing these opportunities hard since signing with Fegan.

Though the bigger danger is 2015 where nearly half of the league will have 10M+ of cap to spend. A lot of teams will be disappointed over not signing a superstar and their marketing/ticket sales dept will need some sort of splash to sell.

I really believe for the Rockets to keep Parsons they need to get that big trade done this season so they can make him a restricted free agent in 2014.

 

Parsons will get 10mi/yr somewhere, if not here.

 

Parsons is worth 8mi MAX