And yet, all the alternatives are even more seriously flawed. Sure - if you could pick the one guy that is best, that's great. But that's not how it works. If you wait until later, you're just as likely to get Locker or Mallet as Dalton. The choice isn't between Newton or the field, as you're implying - it's between Newton and a specific one of the 6 other QBs taken in rounds 1-3. The odds are against you when you're hoping the one guy you pick out of those is the one that turns out good because most will suck. I never said it doesn't work - it's worked brilliantly for many teams like New England. I'm saying it's pure luck and a horribly stupid strategy to rely on because it's going to fail the vast majority of the time. At the end of the day, the QB that everyone thinks is the best is far more likely to succeed than the QB that everyone thinks is the 5th best. And since, unlike other positions, you have to commit to just one guy for at least 2-3 years to find out, you should be doing everything possible to take the guy with the highest likelihood of success or you simply increase the odds that you will waste the next 3 years of the franchise.
Yes, but if you have the #1 overall pick you have a chance at a Cam Newton, since you bring up that draft class. Instead of either trading down and taking a chance on reaching for a guy like Ponder, Locker, Gabbert or hoping you fall upon the next Andy Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Chances are you can find a contributing offensive or defensive lineman to compliment that #1 QB in that same draft class. I'm sure Miami would like their 2008 draft redone so they could take Matt Ryan first overall in place of Jake Long, but when you evaluate what players you have available, the scouting and general managers should have that correct decision down by the time the draft rolls around. Tannehill isn't too bad but I'd place Ryan's talents at QB over his, plus they could have used that 1st rounder on Tannehill on another guy to bolster their offense or defense.
Well the consensus is having about a 17% success rate with QBs taken in the 1st round. 12 have been taken in the 1st round since 2009 and only 2 of them have panned out IMO (Luck and Cam), obviously the jury is still out on a few but the list of "awesome" QBs taken in the 1st round as of late is paper thin. With that said, 10 QBs have been taken with the #1 overall since 2001 and I would say 4 of them lived up to the hype (Luck, Cam, Eli, and Vick) so there is a little better success in that front. But my point is that you do not have to take a QB in the first round, let alone the #1 overall pick, if you are not completely sold on one.
All true... I'm not saying that the last rated QB is always going to be "better" than the highest rated one... just saying that QB's drafted "later" don't always suck (and in some cases, the "elite" rate is just as high as when you take a QB #1). And because there is still a pretty decent failure rate for #1 QB's... and you're investing the 2-3 years no matter what... you have to be 100% sold that said QB is the potential franchise QB you hope for him to be. If there's any doubt, I have no problem with them taking an elite "other" player #1, and drafting a QB with talent (but not as much talent) in the 2nd round... and that also lessens the "investment" requirement that you're hand-cuffed with (as its easier to walk away from a 2nd round pick vs. a #1 overall pick). It will all come down to whether or not the Texans are 100% sold on Bridgewater. They can't screw up this draft (not just the #1 pick, but they need to hit on 2 or 3 players this draft to help pull them out of this). I just refuse to buy into the schtick that quality QB talent has to be taken in the top half of round 1... it doesn't.
Building talent hardly matters if you are deficient at QB. That's the modern NFL. Look at the Bills. They've got a great DL. Heck of a pass rush. Pretty meaningless without a decent QB.. It's impossible to compete for championships without a good QB these days. The rules changes have really empowered that position like never before.
Funny enough, the Bills may be the perfect example of when you don't reach for a QB in the first round just to draft one. E.J. Manuel may not turn out to be a bust... but regardless, with him being a first round pick they have to spend 2-3 years on him to figure it out. Nobody is questioning the importance of QB in "today's" NFL... but reaching for a QB is not always the answer either.
E.J. was a definite reach. Not a first round talent by any estimation, projected as a 2nd or 3rd round grade (he was picked 16th). Nobody is grading Bridgewater as anything less than a top 10 talent in the current draft. If you look at skillset and production by those 2 players, there's a world of difference. Manuel is slow in his reads, panicks under pressure in the pocket, and has a noticable hitch in his delivery of the football.
You always have your years where QB is just not as strong in depth as others (actually most years it's like that) but that doesn't mean your team should reach for a guy like the Bills did with Manuel. Obviously these guys have had trouble drafting as the first pre-draft consensus on the Bills was that they would take Nassib in the 1st. Everyone here was all up for taking a chance on a guy like Manuel in the early 3rd round as Barkley went and I'm sure we have much less of a scouting pedigree collectively than most NFL teams. But this will more than likely be a stronger QB class than that of 2013, where, so far Mike Glennon looks like the best QB to emerge from the flock. Honestly, I believe that if your GM and scouts are good enough you should be able to consciously make a sound decision on who has the potential at being a franchise turning QB. I would hope that we can trust the Texans in deciding for themselves whether Teddy is the right or wrong decision at QB with the 1st overall pick. Not just choosing someone just because all the mock drafts have him going to said team at #1. As we've stated before we need BPA and then team needs not fill out the roster with a bunch of middling players to end up in the same position next season.
You are assuming Bridgewater is a reach at #1. I think Bridgewater is as sure a pick as Luck. He doesn't have quite the size or experience but he he has more natural gifts and better pocket presence. That's what I see. I think many see a QB from Louisville and think he can't be as talented as he is. And a few see a black QB and think he can't be as cerebral and smart a QB as he is. He has qb intelligence like no one I've seen coming out of college. Plus he is talented, very. Watch him thrown on the run. His accuracy is better than any college player I've seen in recent history. But that's a distant second to how smart he plays and how good he is in the pocket. Reaching for manuel with that pick was a risk. But drafting Bridgewater with the number one overall pick is about as sure a thing as their is. Carr will probably be a top 15 pick. Yet he just played a good team and got rattled. Watch Stanford manhandle Mariota in the biggest game of his career. Watch Bridgewater on Saturday. He will not get rattled. He will not get intimidated. Not matter what they send at him, no matter how hard they hit him, no matter how many sacks. he will get back up and he will stand in the pocket and he make his pre snap decisions even better and he will find his receivers. No one has stopped him yet. Not the best defensive team last year. Not even UCF. The only thing that stopped him was the clock. Watch him on Saturday, win or lose, it will not be because someone caused Bridgewater to sway in his brilliant play. Regardless of his poor Offensive line and less than stellar running game Bridgewater will succeed. Win or lose Miami will not stop Teddy Bridgewater. They will have to break his legs to do that because breaking his arm won't be enough. (Okay if it's throwing arm that will work too.) Watch the game on Saturday. It's an important game for Texans. Bridgewater will be playing a team that is more talented at every position with the one exception of Teddy Bridgewater. Watch how will he plays and understand you will be witnessing the next Texans QB for many years to come.
No - it's not. The elite rate of 2nd and 3rd round QBs is nowhere near the rate of #1 picks. It's not even remotely close. It's just that we don't remember all the failures of 2nd and 3rd round QB picks because so many of them just disappear. I'd argue just the opposite. If you have a 50% chance of getting a good/great QB at #1 vs a 25% in the 2nd round, you absolutely, no-questions-asked jump at the #1. You will not ever get better value for your #1 pick than doubling your chance of finding a franchise QB. And realistically, the 2nd round rate is likely lower than that anyway. Your two choices are: (a) 50% chance of solving QB problem, 50% chance of wasting the next 3 years (b) 25% chance of solving QB problem + great pass rusher, 75% chance of wasting the next 3 years At the end of the day, a great pass rusher is useless if you haven't solved the QB problem. By the time you find one 4 years later, that #1 pass rusher will likely be a free agent and if he's any good, will be crazy expensive to keep (see Mario Williams). If they decide none of the 5 QBs is likely to be franchise quality, then yes, they should pass. But they don't need to be 100% sold on him. They just need to be believe he has a good chance to be a franchise QB. Besides, Clowney or whomever else isn't a 100% sure thing either. And, yes, they can screw up this draft. They will just suck next year and repeat the process again. The Texans' job is to give them the best opportunity to win - not to pass on that for a "safer" option because they are scared of failing. Of course it doesn't - it's just, by far, the most effective way to do it.
I hope he does well... that being said, any team would be foolish to base their draft position on just this one game (regardless of whether or not he does good or bad). If the Texans are sold on him, then they'll take him... if they don't take him, it won't be the end of the world simply because they feel he's in the 80+% of first round QB's that ultimately do fail.
Of course don't watch one game. Watch all of them. And what you will see is Teddy Bridgewater will impress. Regardless of the strength of competition, regardless how bad his running backs play or his offensive line performs. Regardless if he is injured. Regardless of the weather or how hard he has been hit. Regardless of the magnitude of the game Teddy Bridgewater will shine. He is what stops Louisville from being a .500 team. No matter the more pressure, the more on the line, the more talented his opponent, Teddy Bridgewater will step up to the plate. He is a gamer. Reading what you write clearly you have not watched enough video of Teddy Bridgewater. Don't just watch one game, watch them all but at least start off by truly watching one. Watch this one this Saturday. I guarantee the Texans will. And then watch the Texans on Sunday and hope and pray they lose.
Sorry I would much rather have Marcus Mariota...who is now expected to come out. USA Today actually has the Texans drafting him. Mariota has all the tools that Bridgewater has but has way more upside than Bridgewater. The only thing that Teddy has going for him is the pre-snap reading of a defense. But if the Texans get O'Brien as the coach I think Mariota will get much better at that even pretty quickly.
Mariota is a classic spread QB. He might work out. Teddy's been playing a pro style offense since high school. I'd far rather have Teddy. Mariota feels like a lot more of a gamble to me.
If we're picking first we have to go with Teddy. If we're picking second we can take a risk and go Mariota or maybe even Clowney. I feel the same, he could come out and play masterfully in the NFL or he could be another spread offense QB that takes a few years to fully develop the way Cam did.
I can hear it now With the first pick in the 2014 NFL draft the Houston Texans select Derek Carr fresno state :0
I wonder if people watch any video or just listen to what ESPN says. First the only thing is a big thing. It's a thing Keenum and RGIII suck at right now. Second it's not the only thing. It's only one of many important and big things. Bridgewater has much better footwork. Has much better pocket presence. Bridgewater takes almost half his snaps from under center. Bridgewater throws with more accuracy on the run. Bridgewater plays in a pro style offense. I am not a scout but those are obvious things I see that Bridgewater is better at. Things that are not so obvious but I give the edge to Bridgewater or strength and quickness. And most of the intangibles like heart and stepping up for big games. And this does not even include the fact Mariota plays in a less complexed spread offense for a more talented offensive line. I would consider Mariota with the first overall pick but he is a drop off from Bridgewater. I don't get why people can't see it. And never do I hear any practical reasons why mariota is better. Makes me think some just think he is too black. Watch more video and you'll see. The biggest game of the season for Mariota. Most of the mistakes Mariota made in that game Bridgewater wouldn't have. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/wUkqgVKITUE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
