Tanaka

But now - it's much easier for the Yankees to simply outbid everyone if they choose to. Before, assuming it was a blind posting system, they had to guess a bit and it was harder to be sure to win unless you threw some crazy number out there. And before, the winning team had some negotiating leverage because they were the only ones that could come to terms with the player - otherwise, he was going back to Japan. Now it's no different than any other free agent + paying $20MM.

 

Yes, I understand, but this just makes it cheaper for the egregious spenders to get their foot in the door. It does nothing for competitive balance.

Sure, it allows more teams to negotiate with the player, but I don't see many non-coastal teams winning that anytime soon.

 

It takes the guess work out, but this system actually makes it more expensive for a team like the Yankees.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseb...ers-from-japan-capped-at-20-million-1.6623372

Less of the cost of a player goes towards the release fee, so more of it is taxable, and therefore more expensive.

 

That is the way the system should work, IMO.

 

Olney:

Now that the rules are in place for players from Japan, we’ll soon know if Masahiro Tanaka will be posted. It makes sense for all 30 teams to indicate a willingness to pay the $20 million posting fee, because 29 teams won’t actually have to pay that figure and by saying you’re willing, you look like you’re trying.

Put it another way: Offering the posting fee is like showing up at the winter meetings. If you don’t, it’ll just look like you don’t care.

There is lots of speculation within the industry that the Cubs are going to take a serious run, and presumably the Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers and other clubs are involved as well.

Wrote the other day that because Rakuten’s ownership believes it won’t get full value for Tanaka in getting $20 million, rival owners have talked about kicking in extra money to make the deal go through.​

 

Oh goodie!

This thread can now get focused on an educated guessing exercise of "to where and how much for?"

I'll say Yankees 5 yrs/85 million.

Wait, scratch that....I forgot about the inevitable bidding war between these 4 drunken sailors.

Yankees 7 yrs/150 million

 

Olney:

• The speculation on the bidding for Masahiro Tanaka -- if he's posted and made available to Major League Baseball teams -- is centered around his talent and skill, naturally, but also around his age.

"Who would you rather pay," one executive postulated, "a 29-year-old Cole Hamels or this guy at age 25?"

Hamels, of course, landed a $144 million deal in the summer before he turned 29 years old. Given how the market has played out for Hamels, Zack Greinke, etc., the talent evaluator who posed the question believes that the Tanaka bidding will go well over $100 million and approach $150 million. He is not thought of as having as much ability as Yu Darvish by a number of evaluators -- "a No. 2-type starter, maybe No. 3," said one scout who saw him last summer -- but the bidding will be fueled by the fact that the team that lands him has a shot to get the best years of his career, rather than the downside.

(If you're wondering how Tanaka would get more than Darvish, who signed a six-year, $56 million deal, remember that Tanaka will be, for all practical purposes, a pure free agent, while Darvish was restricted to negotiating only with the Rangers after that team submitted the highest posting fee. In fact, the disparity between the Darvish and Tanaka contracts may be significant enough to make you wonder if Darvish will react.)

There is a lot of industry speculation that the Cubs are going to be seriously involved, as well as the Yankees -- who might have to blow up their $189 million luxury-tax threshold goal to sign him -- and the Rangers. If it is accurate that Tanaka prefers to play on the West Coast, then the Dodgers and Mariners might have an advantage beyond their available dollars. Tanaka would be a great fit for the Giants in a lot of ways -- they need young starting pitching; he could be marketable for them; they're one of MLB's most flush teams; they'd keep him away from the Dodgers, etc. -- but it's unclear whether San Francisco would consider that type of investment.

If the Dodgers' talent evaluators like him, and are invested in the pursuit, as they were with Greinke, it's hard to imagine why they would lose out; they're more than capable of writing the biggest number on the check, as we have seen. ​

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Rakuten will offer Tanaka $8 million to stay - Masahiro Tanaka | INT <a href="http://t.co/lllUs957YM">http://t.co/lllUs957YM</a></p>&mdash; Rotoworld Baseball (@Rotoworld_BB) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rotoworld_BB/statuses/413469807543992320">December 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
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$8M? Dude stands to make $100M

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Japanese Pitcher Tanaka Won’t Be Let Go, Reports Say If Mr. Mikitani posted, it would be concession that Japan is a minor league for MLB</p>&mdash; Peter Gammons (@pgammo) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgammo/statuses/413618624419467264">December 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Reports out of Japan this morning are that Rakuten won’t let Masahiro Tanaka go to the U.S. <a href="http://t.co/0jfZBws3X7">http://t.co/0jfZBws3X7</a></p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/statuses/413610584702058496">December 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>GM: “Bizarre news on Rakuten. Not sure I buy it.” Reference is to Rakuten’s reported decision not to post Tanaka. No official word yet.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/413676115665113089">December 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tanaka will be posted after all according to Japanese media reports w <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Yankees&amp;src=hash">#Yankees</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23dodgers&amp;src=hash">#dodgers</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Rangers&amp;src=hash">#Rangers</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Cubs&amp;src=hash">#Cubs</a> considered favorites</p>&mdash; Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/statuses/415675648665858049">December 25, 2013</a></blockquote>
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I swear if the Rangers get him.....

 

Random non-Christmassy rant: MLB market is totally messed up. Basically, unless you're traded or released, players and stuck with a team from 18~22ish(depending on HS or college) until he's in he's 29~31 and possibly past his prime. Hence really skewing the market on FAs.

So here you have a guy who's obviously not worth star money, but because he's the only 25 yr old player who doesn't suck on the market, he instantly becomes one of the most prized commodity.

 

He won't get star money, and he might be a star.

 

What do you consider star money?

 

And yet, the 29-31 year old player ends up making a huge amount of money... far more than what they're probably worth at that point... but that's what the market dictates.

I don't think baseball players want the system changed for a second. yes, they are "owned" by a franchise for much of their career, including in most cases their "best" years... but if they're good, there's always a huge payout in the end (and in some cases... see Beltran... they get two huge payouts).