[ClutchFans] Morey: Asik trade fell apart at high level

I would be sooooooooo happy if asik would man up and embrace his roll on this team

 

This assumes that the problem with trading Asik was the balloon payment at the end, and not the idea that the complete package of players/picks was the sticking point. It doesn't really say anything about the question of Lin being a net negative with his contract or not. E.g. would someone give a second round pick for Lin? This trade collapse tells us nothing about that question.

 

All I know is that the Rockets are struggling getting stops, especially second team and Omer is our solution. Put the past behind you...time to ball like last year Omer!

 

Asik needs to realize that he has a true chance to get to the finals IF he puts in his share of the work load. He can up his status IF he still wants to be traded by how well he performs in the playoffs for next season. I hope he wakes up and sees that this his best chance right now to get the Chip.

 

That first round pick was traded in a package with Brad Miller and Nicola Mirotic for Johnny Flynn (who didn't contribute) and Donatas Motiejunas (who isn't contributing). When Motie gets traded for a second-rounder, it'll close the book on the return we got on Battier, which was basically nothing.

Of course, had Battier stayed we only might have made the playoffs, and would almost certainly been eliminated in the first round. So, we wouldn't have gained much by keeping him either, except maybe a little pride and a little credibility.

 

Wonder if Asik's "mysterious" ailments will continue throughout the season?

 

Things are so tense here, a simple question could cause explosion :grin:
I think at this point, let's just wish that everyone get healthy and play well

 

You can't judge a draft pick based on how the player drafted a couple years later turns out. The trade and the draft are two separate decisions.

When Houston traded TMac's expiring contract to NY to eat Jared Jeffries' salary, Morey landed a 1st round pick. That pick turned into the 16th pick of the 2012 draft, which was used to select Royce White.

The right way to view the situations is that A) Houston was right to make the TMac trade, but B) Houston chose the wrong guy in Royce White.

You can debate whether the Rockets used the Memphis pick the right way (combined it with a pick they got from the AB for Dragic deal to get the pick that ended up being DMo). But the trade itself should not be judged by the pick's subsequent use, especially when that subsequent use happened a couple years after the trade was made.

The "DMo pick" might very well have been used to select, for example, Kenneth Faried (has been a starter on a very good Denver team) or Nikola Mirotic (playing very well in Europe). Making these selections would not have made the Battier trade more or less correct.

Things would be different if we are talking about a "draft night" trade, like when the Spurs traded George Hill for the draft rights to Kawhi Leonard or when Houston traded the draft pick used to choose Rudy Gay for Shane Battier. Here, when you make the deal, you do so for the purpose of choosing a specific player. Not the same situation where you are dealing with picks 1 or more years in the future.

 

The difference is how Lin reacted to changes, compared the Asik. In terms of being a team player, you can't ask more! I hope people appreciate Lin for asorbing all changes pushed to him.

 

It is reasonable to assume that Omer Asik wants to make good money on his next contract. If so, then it's not helpful to his values come 2015 (which is not very far away) if he misses too many games or does not play well the next 1.5 seasons.

He may or may not still be angry or depressed about things, but if I were his agent, I certainly would not advice doing anything other than playing well.

 

They can chuckle all they want. In 2015, Lin and Asik come off the books and the Rockets can (and IMO, will) sign Love. Then the Rockets will chuckle all the way to 3+ championships.

 

Well supported

But those are dynamics in terms of Morey getting what he thinks is a fair deal, not in terms of him getting nothing at all (i.e. being underwater). We gave up nothing (but money/cap space) to sign Asik & Lin. We're only underwater if we have to ship assets to get someone to take the contract off our hands.

We may be underwater on the Lin deal, but I don't think this deal answers that question.

 

True. Whether you think the Rockets did Lin a favor with that contract or just want him gone, gotta appreciate how Lin has handled everything. And improved in the process.

 

Again, and I'm saying this as a guy who is behind Lin and appreciate his game and his attitude, it's not the same circumstance. Lin is not starting but he is playing around 30 minutes a game when he was healthy. He has a chance to make his numbers. He also almost always starts when a key guy is out with injury on the bench like Harden or Parsons. Asik's loss a lot of minutes when TT failed. Could Asik handle it better? Yes for sure but it isn't the same as Lin's being assigned to lead the bench unit or be used as a bridge to them. He's still getting significant playing time and actually more steady time than he did this time as a starter last season.

 

This is game theory at work here. Morey probably determined that teams are low balling for Asik since they believe we have to make a trade. Therefore the appropriate strategy should be to withdraw from negotiations and wait for teams to up their offers to play with the big boys, so to speak. The same thing applies when you deal with a car salesmen.

If we traded Asik for a bad return it would make Morey look weak and lead to more low-ball offers in the future and it may not get us any closer to our ultimate goal of winning a championship. So in my opinion withdrawing is a good strategic move. Asik is at a position of need for several teams and even with a $15m salary next year he should be valuable.

 

The following is a list of teams that were rumored to be interested in Asik and possible trade scenarios with the net financial ramifications of Asik's (or Lin's) balloon payment due in 2014-15.

Let's start with the easy ones:


Chicago: Asik (or Lin) and Brewer for Deng straight up.

This deal would save Chicago over $15.6 million in salary and luxury taxes this season, more than enough to pay Asik's (or Lin's) entire balloon payment for 2014-15. Very simply, Chicago doesn't know what they want to do. They're in the luxury tax and in danger of missing the playoffs. And now they think they're gonna be able to retain Deng next year.
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NY Knicks: Asik (or Lin) and Brewer for Tyson Chandler straight up.

Don't know if Morey would have done this deal or not. Knicks owe Chandler over $28.5 million between this year and next year altogether. Rockets owe Asik a shade over $20 million for this year and next year altogether. If both sides were agreeable to this deal the Knicks could save somewhere between $36-40 million over the next 2 seasons with this straight up trade. Does it matter to the Knicks?? Probably not. But that's why they suck. Anyways, not likely that Dolan was choking on Asik's balloon note.
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Charlotte Bobcats: Asik (or Lin), Brewer, Smith for Ben Gordon, Brandon Haywood, and another minimum salary contract (Adrien or Taylor) plus a first round pick.

Pretty fair trade especially if Charlotte is ACTUALLY planning on getting into the playoffs (which is what they said but not necessarily what they meant).

This deal would save Charlotte over $9 million in salary from Haywood's guaranteed money and Gordon's guaranteed money....making Asik cost them an extra $6 million next year over doing nothing. Do you think MJ would choke on paying Asik $6 million as a free agent to play for them next year????
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Atlanta Hawks: Asik for Millsap

It's the same money. $1 million difference over 2 years.

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Cleveland Cavaliers: Asik for Bynum and a couple picks:

Bynum has a buyout for $6 million if he is waived before January 10th. If they keep him, he's gonna cost them $12 million and will likely konk out on them sometime around February 21st.

Asik would cost them a net $8 million over the next 2 years above what Bynum is gonna cost them if they keep him just this year. And perchance Bynum stays healthy (prolly a 0.01% chance) and they keep him next year even for just half a season, then they've paid out the same money.

Now Gilbert indeed could have scuttled a deal for Asik because he values cap space to have to sign Lebron back. I can see that as a possibility. But that would still be dumb because he's got enough cap space even with Asik on the books to still be able to easily dump a contract out to Utah or Philly or Miami or some other team with cap space along with a pick to get Lebron back to Cleveland.
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Cleveland: Asik/Brewer for Varejao/Clark and a first rounder

Net financial effect to this deal is about $3.8 million dollars more for Cleveland over the next 2 years. No way Gilbert was choking on that. And that deal wouldn't prevent Gilbert from signing Lebron outright either.
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Philadelphia: Asik/DMo/Brewer for Young/Hawes or Turner/Hawes or Young/Turner

Let's take the worst case scenario first for Philly as far as money goes, that being the expiring deals of Hawes/Turner out and Asik/DMo in. That would cost Philly an extra $11.5 million net over 2 years with them saving $5 million this year.

But you see the problem here is Philly has to spend the money anyways. There's a 90% rule. They've got to pay out 90% of $58 million this year and 90% of whatever the cap is next year (rumored to be $62 million). Guess what? Next year they've got less than $30 million on the books. They're gonna have to pay the $15 million to somebody. Tell me...who else could they get that would be better for them to spend the money on??? Philly choking on the poison pill???? Hardly. And that's without considering if they moved Young's money off the table.
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Which brings us to.......

Boston: Asik for KHump and a couple picks

I suspect this is the deal Morey really wanted to do, with Boston that is. I see no reason for him to want Lee/Bass at this point. That's what Boston wanted . However if Boston was the team that choked on the $15 million salary for next year, let's consider that.

The difference between what is owed Asik and KHump at this time is right at $11.8 million. Asik makes Boston a top 3 team in the East. Next year they can torque and possibly contend in the East. Adding Asik costs them $11.8 million in actual money and runs their cap up to about $70 million with Bogans waived and Crawford/Bradley re-signed. Choking on the poison pill???? C'mon now. If they don't take him and waive Bogans and let Crawford/Bradley walk, they have at best around $50 million of salary with a projected $6-8 million of cap space after swallowing down draft picks, etc. Are they gonna get anything close to Asik for that much????
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Washington: Asik/Brewer for Gortat/Ariza/pick

Yeah I know we didn't hear much about Washington but we did hear a brief rumor about them the last couple days. This deal would cost Washington a net $8.2 million over the next 2 years with them having to pay out the $15 million balloon next year. But once again, they gotta pay out the money to somebody. They're at around $40 million in cap next year, maybe $45 when draft picks are in. They're either gonna have to pay Gortat around $10 million or let him walk. You mean to tell me paying a net $8.2 million for Asik over these next 2 years instead of Gortat and Ariza for one year isn't worth it? They're choking on that poison pill? Don't see it.
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So, you tell me, who is this team owner that is choking on paying Asik $15 million next year and what sort of totally lop-sided trade was Morey trying to pull off that would cause that owner to choke so bad on the salary due Asik?????

 

If Morey wants to move Asik, then it has to be done with more than just Asik. While Asik does has value, but it just not ask much as Morey think he has. Whoever acquire Asik, they have to put up 15m next year.

Knicks in general has no asset beside Melo. If Morey want to move Asik, he can package Lin and Parson plus (1 or 2) second round for Melo, Felton and Martin. A win win for both teams.

Rockets in return get an upgrade for 3 and a scoring option, a backup PG and a backup center.

 

"Quite some time" likely means until next year's trade deadline. Because you see at next year's trade deadline if Asik plays well he'll be owed roughly $10.5 million. Somebody is going to come calling on that deal. But they're going to have to pay a king's ransom at that point to get Omer away from us.

 

Tell the Bulls, Lakers, and Knicks that PGs are in high supply.