Key Trends Amongst NBA Champions (and how they relate to the Contenders)

I'm reserving judgment on our team while we're missing so many guys. Start tracking our stats again when Lin comes back, James' ankle is better, Parsons' back balkiness is further behind us, and whoever we get in the Asik trade is better integrated into our offense.

Until then, our stats are naturally going to be crappy. When we start clicking again I guarantee you well be a top ten defense.

 

Ah geez, thank you, I've felt this whole seasons that the passing on this team is poor and I'm not just speaking to assists. Just passing. They're terrible at it, really. Bounce passes all over the place, to big men even lol... about once a quarter one of them makes a pass that's like say man, you need to practice your passes.


As far as pace, I think their half court game will come with TIME (like years together, Harden, Howard, Parsons as the core) and not to beat a horse to death but passing is what makes half-court games deadly. The ball moves a lot faster than people.


Certainly, I think all the crap drama Asik has brought in is a hindrance but it seems like there is still a bit of uneasiness between some other teammates. Health is another one. Eventually they are going to stick with a couple guys for a few years and let them develop some championship caliber chemistry because I don't see that right now. I see a bunch of individuals who are good playing with the same color jersey on.

 

Based on this analysis, only 2 teams fit ALL criteria... Spurs and Heat. Interesting to see how this plays out. Obviously, these rankings will change as the season progresses, so we can't crown these 2 teams so early.

 

If you wanna crown 'em then crown their a..., but they are who we thought they were!

 

Nice analysis. But I'll simplify it a bit.

16 of the 20 champions had the following as their best players:

Hakeem
Jordan
Duncan
Shaq
Kobe
Lebron

These guys were the best or second best players in the league in their respective winning years.

Of the remaining 4 years we've got:

Wade
Garnett
Dirk

These guys were top 5 in their respective years, maybe even top 4.

The only anomoly is Detroit in 2004.

To win a championship you need a top 2 player (80% since 1994).

 

Any player in the top 10 players is capable of being a top 2 player in any given year.

That's why you need multiple great players, a great gm that puts together quality role players, and a good coach and scheme.

 

I've been pointing this out for years. No superstar = no championship. One exception since 1980, just one.

 

We've reached heights of 1 in offensive efficiency and 8 in defensive efficiency so far this year. Yea I check daily haha. Guess when we were at our best. Yep, just before Chandler went out for the two games. Yes Lin and Asik were already regularly missing games by then. Yes I would imagine we need all to be running on all cylinders.

No other contender has been as snakebit as us this year. The exception of course is Chicago, but they are done as far as this year's incarnation of the Bulls goes. The Rockets still have a good probability of bringing back all their injured players in time for the rest of the year and the playoffs.

The only other major pieces on contenders that I've noticed have missed significant time have been a.) Westbrook with OKC, but he's back now; and b.) Iguodala with GSW, who we're probably really lucky not to have faced in our two GSW games thus far. I suppose Dwyane Wade has missed a few games this year too, but this might be Wade's deal for the rest of his career. Can't really give Miami bonus points for that. SAS, Portland, and Indiana have been mostly pristine with their injury reports thus far. Lucky bastards.

 

I don't know if any random top 10 player is enough. Guys don't jump from no 9 or 10 to no 1 or 2. Usually its a no 5 that goes to 1 or 2.

Hakeem was a perennial top 5 guy before the first title. And in 94 he was MVP. Shaq was a perennial top 5 guy before he won his first. Duncan was a rookie his first chip but was a top 5 guy ever since. Kobe was a perennial top 5 guy until he won without Shaq. Lebron was the best player in the league for a while before he won.

Going back further Jordan was the best player for a while. Magic and bird after their rookie years were 1 and 2 for a long while.

To win a title you need a top 5 guy who might make the jump to no 1 or 2.

The other thing to note is that the guy needs to become top 5 pretty quickly. History shows that the type of players who win chips are usually projected to be all time great only a few seasons into their careers.

 

one thing to note is that portland is currently way out in front in ORTG. so while their DRTG ranking gives cause for concern, their net rating ranking is probably pretty high and in line with being a contender. most teams just aren't usually in 1st by such a large margin (it was by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when i last looked).

 

^Portland is not a contender imo. Every championship team has been a top 10 defensive team aside from the 01 Lakers and the 95 Rockets and they were both top 10 defensive teams when they tried.

 

So who are the top 5 guys this year at this moment?

Lebron
CP3
Duncan
Harden
Howard
P. George
Curry
Aldridge
Durant

 

no order: Lebron, Durant, George easy

last two are hard

 

pretty much everyone on our team except for dwight and asik are good passers, yet we are low on apg%. as i've been saying all year, our offense is too iso-oriented. we have the players to do better.

2 things need to change for us to become serious contenders:

1) harden and parsons need to become serious about defense. an upgrade on perimeter D will push us into the top 10.
2) better coaching. if adelman were still here we'd have one of the best passing teams, at an average pace. also, sharing the ball means less energy spent from harden and parsons playing hero ball, and more energy to be spent on defense. i'm not advocating for adelman to rejoin the team which will never happen, just using him as an example.

 

individualism in a team sport is the opposite of what this team needs. It is one of the biggest problems of the roster at the moment.

Keep praying for Harden Howard to be healthy all season and to put up god like numbers, then wait for frustration to soak you in play-off.

watching BB for 10 years and this is the best of your observations? guess many would still agree with you here, anyway.

 

agree 100%