1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Key Trends Amongst NBA Champions (and how they relate to the Contenders)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Sen89, Dec 16, 2013.

Tags:
  1. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    1,734
    Likes Received:
    909
    I posted this on another board...thought it'd be interesting to discuss with respect to the Rockets

    Study Period:
    1994-2013 (the modern era/the last 20 years)

    The Point:
    - Find common links and trends (via team stat ranks in their championship year) amongst these champions.
    - Apply these trends to the 2013-2014 Season, and to the possible contenders this year

    Methods:
    - Look at team stat ranks amongst Champions since the '93-'94 season (and adjust them to a 30 team league). Any decimal ranks are adjusted numbers.
    - The '13-'14 teams I threw in the "contenders" category were SAS, MIA, OKC, IND, LAC, HOU and POR

    Key:
    Green = Team which is in best position according to the trend/average
    Orange= Teams in solid position according to the trend/average
    Red = Teams not in good position according to the trend/average

    -----

    TREND #1: OFFENSIVE PACE – Champions usually have a medium to slow offensive pace

    Findings (30-team adjusted):
    A) 18 of the 20 champions were not in the top-10 fastest teams (pace wise) in their season. The only “fast” teams were the '01-'02 Lakers, who were #6, or an adjusted #6.18, and the '08-'09 Lakers, who were #5 in their respective seasons.

    B) 10 of the 20 ranked between #11-20 in their title year. 8 of the 20 were ranked lower than #20. The slowest team (respective to their season) was the '98-'99 Spurs, who were last in pace (adj. #29.87) in that year.

    C) The average adjusted pace rank amongst the twenty champions is #17.9 of 30

    '13-'14 Contenders’ Offensive Pace Ranks
    OKC: #4
    HOU: #5
    LAC: #8
    SAS: #12
    POR: #14
    MIA: #16
    IND: #21

    TREND #2: ORTG + DRTG – Champions’ ORTG Rank + DRTG Rank is usually under 20

    Findings (30-team adjusted):
    A) When adding up the teams’ ORTG (points scored per 100 possessions) Rank and DRTG (points given up per 100 possessions) Rank, 17 of the 20 champions ended up under 20. The exceptions were the '94-'95 Rockets who ended up with 21.1 (#7.77 on O, #13.33 on D), the '00-'01 Lakers who ended up with 23.69 (#2.06 on O, #21.63 on D) and the '03-'04 Pistons, who ended up with 20.6 (#18.54 on O, #2.06 on D).

    This basically means that most of these teams are high-level on both ends, rather than just elite on one. That’s something most would’ve guessed, but it’s interesting to see how few teams were only dominant on one end.

    B) 16 of the 20 were top-10 in ORTG rank. Exceptions were the 93-94 Rockets (#16.66), the '98-'99 Spurs (#11.33), the '03-'04 Pistons (#18.54) and the '09-'10 Lakers (#11).

    C) 18 of the 20 were top-10 in DRTG rank. Exceptions were the '94-'95 Rockets (#13.33) and the '00-'01 Lakers (#21.63)

    D) The '95-'96 Bulls were 1st on both O and D in their year.

    E) The average ORTG rank is #7.2 and the average DRTG rank is #5.2; the cumulative average is 12.4.

    '13-'14 Contenders’ ORTG Rank + DRTG Rank
    SAS = 6; #4 on O; #2 on D
    MIA= 8; #2 on O; #6 on D
    OKC = 13; #8 on O; #5 on D
    IND= 15; #14 on O; #1 on D
    HOU= 16; #3 on O; #13 on D
    LAC = 16; #6 on O; #10 on D
    POR = 22; #1 on O; #21 on D

    TREND #3: TEAM APG% - Champions are never bad passing teams (but they're not always elite)

    Findings (30-team adjusted):
    A) 10 of the 18 teams were top-10 (included the '99-'00 and '00-'01 Lakers in here, although the adjustment pushed them just over #10) in APG% (couldn’t find data before 95-96). 6 of the 18 were between 11-20th. Only two had a rank lower than 17th: the 02-03 Spurs (#22.66) and the '11-'12 Heat (#20).

    B) The average APG% rank was #10.37 amongst champions

    '13-'14 Contenders AST% ranks (it's difficult to label a "best" here, because one could make the case that a team with an overly high APG% rank could signify a lack of shot-creators. That being said, the numbers clearly show that ranks lower than a certain point in APG% are a negative indicator of success)

    SAS: #1
    LAC: #3
    MIA: #5
    POR: #6
    OKC: #14
    IND: #18
    HOU: #20

    -----

    There are many other trends which could be found, but these three stood out to me when compiling the numbers.

    Pace is an interesting one, because the numbers support the claim that fast teams struggle in the grind-it-out style of the NBA playoffs. There are an exception or two, but both Lakers teams had legitimate half-court scoring options despite their fast pace. The Rockets need to be able to play efficient, slower ball.

    The ORTG + DRTG may seem obvious, as I mentioned earlier, but it shows that most of the champions were not overly reliant on dominating one end of the floor (some were dominant on one end, but they managed to still be high-level on the other). The Rockets need to up their DRTG, even though it's higher than one would think based on our raw PPA numbers (due to our high pace).

    Lastly, the APG% ranks are also interesting. It's far from being without flaws, as it doesn't equate to ball-movement (a more important factor), as LAC relies on CP3 to dominate the ball and create for everyone, and they still get a high rank. That being said, it does show that the lower rank teams are usually more iso-dependent, and that's rarely ever a good thing. We're last amongst the contenders, so that needs to change.
     
    #1 Sen89, Dec 16, 2013
    2 people like this.
  2. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,901
    Likes Received:
    4,661
    I'm reserving judgment on our team while we're missing so many guys. Start tracking our stats again when Lin comes back, James' ankle is better, Parsons' back balkiness is further behind us, and whoever we get in the Asik trade is better integrated into our offense.

    Until then, our stats are naturally going to be crappy. When we start clicking again I guarantee you well be a top ten defense.
     
    #2 Spacemoth, Dec 16, 2013
  3. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    1,734
    Likes Received:
    909
    While true, our ranks are still pretty indicative of our style of play. Also, other top teams have had guys miss games as well.

    I'm not so sure about the defensive prediction though. We need to improve our personnel, effort and possibly our schematic strategies on that end before I'd be satisfied. But there are some promising aspects there in place.
     
    #3 Sen89, Dec 16, 2013
  4. Dankstronaut

    Dankstronaut Way, way out here.

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    10,410
    Likes Received:
    14,898
    Ah geez, thank you, I've felt this whole seasons that the passing on this team is poor and I'm not just speaking to assists. Just passing. They're terrible at it, really. Bounce passes all over the place, to big men even lol... about once a quarter one of them makes a pass that's like say man, you need to practice your passes.


    As far as pace, I think their half court game will come with TIME (like years together, Harden, Howard, Parsons as the core) and not to beat a horse to death but passing is what makes half-court games deadly. The ball moves a lot faster than people.


    Certainly, I think all the crap drama Asik has brought in is a hindrance but it seems like there is still a bit of uneasiness between some other teammates. Health is another one. Eventually they are going to stick with a couple guys for a few years and let them develop some championship caliber chemistry because I don't see that right now. I see a bunch of individuals who are good playing with the same color jersey on.
     
    #4 Dankstronaut, Dec 16, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  5. dakeem1

    dakeem1 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    1,326
    Likes Received:
    199
    Based on this analysis, only 2 teams fit ALL criteria... Spurs and Heat. Interesting to see how this plays out. Obviously, these rankings will change as the season progresses, so we can't crown these 2 teams so early.
     
    #5 dakeem1, Dec 16, 2013
  6. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    If you wanna crown 'em then crown their a..., but they are who we thought they were!
     
    #6 basketballholic, Dec 16, 2013
  7. syntax error

    syntax error Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    97
    Likes Received:
    2
    Nice analysis. But I'll simplify it a bit.

    16 of the 20 champions had the following as their best players:

    Hakeem
    Jordan
    Duncan
    Shaq
    Kobe
    Lebron

    These guys were the best or second best players in the league in their respective winning years.

    Of the remaining 4 years we've got:

    Wade
    Garnett
    Dirk

    These guys were top 5 in their respective years, maybe even top 4.

    The only anomoly is Detroit in 2004.

    To win a championship you need a top 2 player (80% since 1994).
     
    #7 syntax error, Dec 16, 2013
  8. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Any player in the top 10 players is capable of being a top 2 player in any given year.

    That's why you need multiple great players, a great gm that puts together quality role players, and a good coach and scheme.
     
    #8 basketballholic, Dec 16, 2013
  9. Raven

    Raven Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Messages:
    14,984
    Likes Received:
    1,025
    I've been pointing this out for years. No superstar = no championship. One exception since 1980, just one.
     
    #9 Raven, Dec 16, 2013
  10. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,901
    Likes Received:
    4,661
    We've reached heights of 1 in offensive efficiency and 8 in defensive efficiency so far this year. Yea I check daily haha. Guess when we were at our best. Yep, just before Chandler went out for the two games. Yes Lin and Asik were already regularly missing games by then. Yes I would imagine we need all to be running on all cylinders.

    No other contender has been as snakebit as us this year. The exception of course is Chicago, but they are done as far as this year's incarnation of the Bulls goes. The Rockets still have a good probability of bringing back all their injured players in time for the rest of the year and the playoffs.

    The only other major pieces on contenders that I've noticed have missed significant time have been a.) Westbrook with OKC, but he's back now; and b.) Iguodala with GSW, who we're probably really lucky not to have faced in our two GSW games thus far. I suppose Dwyane Wade has missed a few games this year too, but this might be Wade's deal for the rest of his career. Can't really give Miami bonus points for that. SAS, Portland, and Indiana have been mostly pristine with their injury reports thus far. Lucky bastards.
     
    #10 Spacemoth, Dec 16, 2013
  11. syntax error

    syntax error Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    97
    Likes Received:
    2
    I don't know if any random top 10 player is enough. Guys don't jump from no 9 or 10 to no 1 or 2. Usually its a no 5 that goes to 1 or 2.

    Hakeem was a perennial top 5 guy before the first title. And in 94 he was MVP. Shaq was a perennial top 5 guy before he won his first. Duncan was a rookie his first chip but was a top 5 guy ever since. Kobe was a perennial top 5 guy until he won without Shaq. Lebron was the best player in the league for a while before he won.

    Going back further Jordan was the best player for a while. Magic and bird after their rookie years were 1 and 2 for a long while.

    To win a title you need a top 5 guy who might make the jump to no 1 or 2.

    The other thing to note is that the guy needs to become top 5 pretty quickly. History shows that the type of players who win chips are usually projected to be all time great only a few seasons into their careers.
     
    #11 syntax error, Dec 17, 2013
  12. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    22,025
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    one thing to note is that portland is currently way out in front in ORTG. so while their DRTG ranking gives cause for concern, their net rating ranking is probably pretty high and in line with being a contender. most teams just aren't usually in 1st by such a large margin (it was by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when i last looked).
     
    #12 francis 4 prez, Dec 17, 2013
  13. felixng2012

    felixng2012 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2012
    Messages:
    1,823
    Likes Received:
    282
    ^Portland is not a contender imo. Every championship team has been a top 10 defensive team aside from the 01 Lakers and the 95 Rockets and they were both top 10 defensive teams when they tried.
     
    #13 felixng2012, Dec 17, 2013
  14. RocketScientist

    RocketScientist Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 1999
    Messages:
    572
    Likes Received:
    29
    So who are the top 5 guys this year at this moment?

    Lebron
    CP3
    Duncan
    Harden
    Howard
    P. George
    Curry
    Aldridge
    Durant
     
    #14 RocketScientist, Dec 17, 2013
  15. drowsy12

    drowsy12 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    824
    Likes Received:
    28
    no order: Lebron, Durant, George easy

    last two are hard
     
    #15 drowsy12, Dec 17, 2013
  16. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2001
    Messages:
    20,716
    Likes Received:
    6,947
    pretty much everyone on our team except for dwight and asik are good passers, yet we are low on apg%. as i've been saying all year, our offense is too iso-oriented. we have the players to do better.

    2 things need to change for us to become serious contenders:

    1) harden and parsons need to become serious about defense. an upgrade on perimeter D will push us into the top 10.
    2) better coaching. if adelman were still here we'd have one of the best passing teams, at an average pace. also, sharing the ball means less energy spent from harden and parsons playing hero ball, and more energy to be spent on defense. i'm not advocating for adelman to rejoin the team which will never happen, just using him as an example.
     
    #16 smoothie, Dec 17, 2013
  17. hard

    hard Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2013
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    0
    individualism in a team sport is the opposite of what this team needs. It is one of the biggest problems of the roster at the moment.

    Keep praying for Harden Howard to be healthy all season and to put up god like numbers, then wait for frustration to soak you in play-off.

    watching BB for 10 years and this is the best of your observations? guess many would still agree with you here, anyway.
     
    #17 hard, Dec 17, 2013
  18. hard

    hard Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2013
    Messages:
    27
    Likes Received:
    0
    agree 100%
     
    #18 hard, Dec 17, 2013
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)

Share This Page