Agreed. They need to upgrade the QB position. Disagreed that they have to use the #1 pick in the draft to do so, especially on somebody who isn't one of the best QB prospects ever to come out in the draft... just happens to be the best one this year. Explore all opportunities. Don't settle to take one with the first pick. My ideal scenario would be to trade down for a package of multiple picks, and still use a high one on a QB (presuming the "right" QB can be had). If they feel Bridgewater is the only right QB they could ever want/have/work with, then they have to take him first. Again, if they feel he is the best they could possibly have... take him. If they feel they could do better than Bridgewater (in any avenue... next year's draft, free agency, later round picks, etc.), then don't reach just to say "we drafted a QB #1 to upgrade our position!" (regardless of said QB being a true "franchise" player... a move that sets this team back further as they wait for him to "blossom"). Looking at the quality of QB's in this draft, they're going to have to feel pretty strongly that Bridgewater is "it" to use the #1 pick on him. If they don't, I wouldn't blame them for trading down... or taking somebody else... and finding another avenue to improve the QB position.
Then we agree... Yes, I do believe a QB is important... I also disagree that you HAVE to take a QB #1 to fix that position. There's just too many examples out there that say otherwise. Also, most teams that find a good QB elsewhere (other than the #1 pick) also happen to be good organizations with strong head coaches/systems. On the flip side, most teams that have a failure at QB via a high pick in the draft also happen to be teams that have a poor system/poor coaching structure.
Fact of the matter is, you take the best qb prospect as they have the best shot of being a franchise level player. If you start Bridgewater and he is god awful next year, chances are, you are number one again. At that point I would take Winston. The point I am making is, if you want to be an elite team, you need an elite quarterback. Find him. I don't care if you draft the first three picks as qb(I really think that is a bad idea LOL). Find him.
I agree you need to "find him"... but how can you support finding him via a system that has such a high failure rate, and has massive repercussions to building the team/salary cap if you do fail with that pick? If Bridgewater meets all the "criteria", and fails, you support potentially compounding that mistake by taking another QB that meets the same "criteria?" You're also only going to give your "franchise" QB 1 year to figure it out?
Nick, you are taking me a little bit to literal right now. I just am emphasizing the importance of finding that guy. The Redskins took Cousins and RG3 the same year, which I consider a smart move. If the Texans were in position to do the same with two number one picks, you do it. You couldn't go wrong having both a Bridgewater and a Winston on your team. The Texans hit a GRAND SLAM with JJ Watt, undoubtedly the best defensive player in the NFL. What has he done for the Texans this year? Put up great numbers and lead the Texans to a 2-11 record. Having the best signal caller seems like the only variable to winning a super bowl.
Potentially a stupid question, but are teams able to communicate with a player/his agent prior to the draft?
Blake Bortles. Watch him. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/AsHSYdNv2C4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/WYd29xlmc04" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/IkyK4bLS_as" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/pZa6_irsHuQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/FqkvlGRn5os" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
It is, but you need to still build a team around him to put him in a situation to succeed. Drafting two QB's with #1 picks, who both will demand a hefty salary that counts against the cap, with only one player playing at a given time, will worsen the ability to build a "team". And yes, JJ Watt cannot do it by himself given the limitations this team has with its OLB's, ILB's, secondary, and remainder of the front 4... just like a good QB cannot do much with a bad O-line, bad receivers, and talent-less RB's.
Salaries aren't as hefty any more with "Guaranteed" money becoming more of a factor. If you have two stud prospects at the qb position, you can flip them for amazing value. Especially come draft time when teams are looking for that franchise level QB. I am tired of the Carr/Schaub era. Bad to mediocre QB play seems habitual in Houston.
I agree on free agency. Next year's draft is a huge reach because this team could easily be 7-9 just with a coaching upgrade, taking them out of the mix for all the top names. Trading down is certainly an option depending on how far down we're talking. Where I really disagree is the bolded part of the idea of waiting for later round picks. If they think a QB out there is great, then they have to assume at least 1 other team can see the same thing. If that's the case, then the odds are the guy will be gone by round 2. The only way a guy is available further down the draft is if no one thinks that player can be great. And then you're back to just relying on luck. Take Russell Wilson or Tom Brady as examples. If Seattle/NE thought either of them would be superstars, they wouldn't have waited to take them. Do you really wait until the 3rd round to take Wilson and risk losing him to some other smart team if you think he was going to become what he is? Of course not - the only reason they waited is they weren't counting on him being great (same reason they paid Matt Flynn). Taking QB's after the first round is generally just taking a flier on someone and hoping they outperform expectations. That should NOT be the way the Texans go about trying to find a QB.
It only takes 1-2 teams to be convinced that Bridgewater can be an elite QB and you can get a lot from him. He sees the field very well and has a strong arm. I think that he will seperate himself the closer we get to the draft and there will be increased buzz that he is a high end QB.
To expand on that, that strategy works for teams that are undergoing long rebuilding processes and are willing to try a guy for a few years, fail, and repeat while building up other parts of the team. The Texans have way too much talent in their prime to be experimenting. They have a pressing, immediate need to fill the biggest hole on the team and to try to see what they could do with this current window of the high-end talent they have (Foster and AJ still being great but nearing the end of their primes being the biggest examples). Unlike a Jacksonville or Oakland that needs to rebuild in a lot of areas, the Texans aren't THAT far away from being contenders. A top-tier QB and a top-tier coach can get this team right back to the top very quickly. There's more talent on the team than it appears.
bahahahahah, what a terrible pick that would be for any team. Also, how is Boyd only two spots ahead of him, really fell off.
If that is the case, I don't think a rookie QB (regardless of where he is drafted) can be expected to come in and lead this team to the playoffs/super bowl right off the bat. I'd equate the likelihood of that happening to the "luck" you refer to in finding non-first round guys like Wilson, Brady, Kaepernick, Romo, and Brees. I actually don't think the Texans have as much overall talent as the other elite teams out there. They do have some quality starters... they have zero depth... and besides Watt, the starters they do have are either older (AJ, Owen Daniels - who likely gets cut), injury prone (Foster, Cushing), or past their primes/on the decline (Duane Brown, Jonathan Joseph, Daniel Manning). Basically the result of a team that should have made the playoffs starting in 2009, but only made it starting in 2011. The 4-5 year window became 2 years, and now its time to rebuild/reload.
I think of the alternatives: #1 pick later first round pick second round pick free agent trade The #1 pick is the most likely way to find a potential starter to get you to contender status quickly. In Year 1, there might be a better option, but by year 2, #1 pick is most likely to be better than any of the other options. Depth is acquirable in all sorts of ways - I agree they don't have a lot of it, but it's lower on the list of problems. I don't know enough about the cap situation of all these guys to know who's likely to be cut, etc. But many of these guys aren't old - they might just be being misused or not being put in the best situation to succeed thanks to crappy coaching. There are too many teams that we see major turnarounds with just coaching - and we KNOW this team's talent was really good just 14 months ago. I find it hard to believe everyone just aged and became permanently ineffective in that short a period.
I totally agree. Despite what McNair said, this is a team that does need a rebuild. And the cornerstone is a franchise QB. Everything else builds from that.
Do we know that? Offense: They had a good run with their now OLD offensive system in 2012, that got more and more ineffective and eventually pretty much figured out as the season went on. Now, with a likely change in system, anchors like Chris Myers (signed to a big deal) become a big question mark. Duane Brown has been inconsistent all season, with a likelihood that his best years are behind him. Arian Foster, who was already showing diminishing returns, may not be as effective in a new system. Andre Johnson will eventually slow down one of these seasons. Wade Smith will be cut. Owen Daniels will be cut. Still need to figure out the right side of the line. Hopkins has been OK, but other rookies have been much better (including guys drafted in later rounds). And yes, of course, the QB needs improving. With good QB play, which this team had most of 2011 and 2012, it does mask a lot of the deficiencies... but you still need a quality system built around that QB to enhance the likelihood of having consistent play at the position.... and they have no clue who will be implementing that system or training the new QB at this point. Defense They also had a huge turnaround on defense in 2011 culminating with the influx of a dynamo (Watt) along with a new coach/scheme. Now, 2 years later, the scheme/coach has been figured out with worsening numbers each year... despite said dynamo still wrecking havoc. Can you name one other player besides Watt and maybe a healthy Cushing (which is still a big if) that you would say is "untouchable" or "irreplaceable" on this defense? Antonio Smith will be cut, Daniel Manning could be cut, even if Cushing comes back healthy they need to get more talent at ILB, their OLB play is awful in this system... and the secondary has guys with no business currently starting in this league playing big minutes (Swearinger, Keo). All this also presumes they even keep the same scheme that these players were once so effective in... I don't see how they can without either upgrading the talent, or going to a scheme that the current players they do have don't get as exposed in.
Since 1969 the year in which the drafts were merged. 14 Defensive players were selected #1 overall, they have accounted for 24 Pro Bowl appearances and 8 Super Bowl wins. 6 have neither won a Super Bowl or gone to the Pro Bowl. And the 2 who were elected to the Hall of Fame, Lee Roy Selmon and Bruce Smith, never won any Super Bowls. 20 QBs have been drafted #1 overall, they have accounted for 49 Pro Bowl appearances and 14 Super Bowl wins (I didnt count David Carrs because he was the backup). 7 have neither won a Super Bowl or gone to a Pro Bowl. And all 3 of the ones who were elected to the Hall of Fame, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Troy Aikman, delivered multiple Super Bowl wins. So basically you have just a good of shot at missing on the "cant miss" defensive guy as you do at missing on the "franchise QB". And even if you do hit on the HOF defensive player it won't lead you to Super Bowl wins. But if you get the right QB it leads you to multiple championships.
Not sure why you bolded that the 3 HOF ones had multiple SB wins... that's probably the #1 reason two of the three are even in the Hall to begin with (Bradshaw and Aikman) The SB winning #1 pick roster is as follows: Bradshaw - 4 Aikman - 3 Elway - 2 Plunkett - 2 (not a HOFer) Eli Manning - 2 Peyton Manning - 1 That's it. Drew Bledsoe and David Carr won as backups. So, thus far, only 6 of the 20 #1 pick QB's ended up starting for championship teams... with some of those championships being a product of a good QB being on a GREAT team (pointing more to the Steelers, Cowboys, and Raiders championships). So, I still disagree that the "right" QB automatically gets you to "multiple" championships. Jury is still out on Luck, Newton, Bradford and Stafford... as the run on #1 pick QB's will likely continue in this QB friendly era. You do need a QB to win in this league... and you do usually get better QB's at the beginning of the draft vs. the end of the draft... but you still need the right guy on the right team for it to be successful.
