I think I've changed my mind. You have to swing for the fences on this one. Take bridgewater, Mariota, or manziel
I think he will. I honestly don't see us winning another game except possibly Jacksonville. Clowney and Watt on the same d-line?….drool.
Captain obvious here but no qb is a sure thing. I'm, no nil scout but the qb is the easily the hardest position to project, i.e. one of the greatest qb's of all time Tom Brady going in the sixth round. I do think it would be hilarious if the ended up drafting Derek Carr.
Up until recently it was one of the easier ones to project at least a serious prospect. Before Dalton and Kaepernick, there hadn't been a successful 2nd round QB in a very long time. It's sort of the nature of it though, since a 1st round QB would be given more chances to play it out.
The most successful QB drafted outside of the first round since the Texans have been in the league has been . . . . . . drumroll please . . . Spoiler MATT SCHAUB Too early to tell for some, but the last few years have produced some promising QBs in the 2nd and 3rd with Dalton, Kaepernick, Wilson, and Nick Foles who just had the highest passer rating in any month in NFL history (beating down Oakland helped a lot). Anyway, looking at recent history of drafting QBs, there's almost nobody worth mentioning who's been drafted outside of the first round. Drafting a QB is always risky, no matter where you're doing it. As you can see below, there are plenty of QBs drafted in the first who are busts. But the success rate still dwarfs that of QBs selected later. IMHO, if you're in position to draft one of the top QBs in the first and you don't have enough confidence in them to pull the trigger, then don't bother drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd because the odds are very long that a QB taken there will become your long term solution at QB. If you're not confident enough to take a chance on Bridgewater or Mariota, then there's really little point in drafting Mettenberger or McCarron or Boyd or Murray. The cost of the investment might be lower, but the odds of it paying off are dramatically lower. And of course, if you draft a QB in the 2nd, you're going to give them a few years to develop which means you're probably not spending another high pick on a QB in the next few years. So if you're not going to take Bridgewater or Mariota, you might as well draft nobody and look for your franchise guy in 2015. You can talk about Brees and Brady, but Brees was drafted 13 years ago and Brady was drafted 14 years ago. And nobody nearly that good since. It's not a common occurrence. So here's a list of notable (not necessarily meaning "good") QBs drafted since the Texans first draft. Notice almost everybody listed, good and bad, was taken in the first. There are a bunch of names not worth posting because they never did anything. 2002 - 15 QBs taken 1 - David Carr 1 - Joey Harrington 4 - David Garrard 2003 - 13 QBs taken 1 - Carson Palmer 1 - Byron Leftwich 1 - Rex Grossman 2004 - 17 QBs taken 1 - Eli Manning 1 - Phillip Rivers 1 - Ben Roethlisberger 3 - Matt Schaub 2005 - 14 QBs taken 1 - Alex Smith 1 - Aaron Rodgers 1 - Jason Campbell 4 - Kyle Orton 6 - Derek Anderson 7 - Matt Cassel 7 - Ryan Fitzpatrick 2006 - 13 QBs taken 1 - Vince Young 1 - Matt Leinart 1 - Jay Cutler 2 - Kellen Clemens 2 - Tarvaris Jackson 2007 - 11 QBs taken 1 - Jamarus Russell 2 - Kevin Kolb 3 - Trent Edwards 2008 - 13 QBs taken 1 - Matt Ryan 1 - Joe Flacco 7 - Matt Flynn 2009 - 11 QBs taken 1 - Matt Stafford 1 - Mark Sanchez 1 - Josh Freeman 2010 - 14 QBs taken 1 - Sam Bradford 1 - Tebow 2011 - 12 QBs taken 1 - Cam Newton 1 - Jake Locker 1 - Blaine Gabbert 1 - Christian Ponder 2 - Andy Dalton 2 - Colin Kaepernick 2012 - 11 QBs taken 1 - Andrew Luck 1 - Robert Griffin III 1 - Ryan Tannehill 3 - Russell Wilson 3 - Nick Foles
Some of these players might stay in college. If so, that makes drafting in the first almost mandatory, because so little might be left in the second.
I only see us going qb if we stay having the first over all to get bridgewater. I think mariota and hundley stay in school making 2015 the banner year for qbsand we with the 2nd pick draft Clowney
After watching this Green Bay v Detroit debacle, it's all the more apparent that in order to be relevant you have to have the QB position settled. With Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have been a Super Bowl contender since his 1st year starting; without him, they are competing with us for the top pick in the draft. That's all I need to know when it comes to drafting a QB or not. I know people say "well, none of these guys look like franchise changers, that's a pick that can go on someone else". Well....I know it sounds stupid, but if there's ANY position in the NFL worth taking a chance on (considering the money isn't nearly what it used to be), wouldn't it be a QB??? Carolina didn't pass up on Cam Newton just because they JUST drafted a QB; heck Jacksonville has been the laughing stock of the NFL for a few years because they refuse to draft another QB. In 2013, you HAVE to have a top-notch QB in order to be successful.
Nice read on Bridgewater. http://www.battleredblog.com/2013/1...ecision-making-the-case-for-teddy-bridgewater
Being desperate for a franchise QB doesn't magically turn draftees into franchise QBs. You can't pass up on a special QB....but you also can't piss away a top pick by making QB an overriding priority. Along with Tony Boselli, wasn't that one of the franchise-limiting decisions the Texans made when they took Carr over Peppers? Keenum's good. Not elite, but good. Potentially to be very good. His ball placement is great, his mobility is great. People are trying to give him grief over the blitz, but you're talking about a guy relegated to practice squad until now. He's already shown that he can extend the play and make a throw (Graham TD, for example) or get rid of the ball. 2 INTs, one from being hit from behind during the throw. He may have taken sacks, but they aren't the Schaub fetal position crap. The issue there isn't Keenum being a fool (and pocket presence comes with experience)...they are a result of the pathetic line play we've been seeing - play that has gotten worse from game to game as guys (coughNewtoncough) seem to be phoning it in. We could pick anywhere from 1-6, depending on how the season wraps up. IMO: If you have the first pick, you grab Bridgewater. The other QBs? Not unless we trade down, more than a few spots. Someone will come up aces, but it's straight up gambling. I'm wary of Clowney. When there are big motivation/work ethic/conditioning concerns in college, I worry a lot. You'll get starting material even in the worst case, sure, but is it going to be another Marcell Dareus or Nick Fairley (expected to be top 5 at one point)? I like Barr a bunch, my only concern is that OLBs aren't usually game changers unless the rest of the defense is rock solid. A guy like JJ Watt is trouble for offenses every snap and can keep your defense in it. By contrast, you've got former DPOY Clay Matthews being turned into a non-factor this year. I'd much rather get a true NT to replace the overmatched Earl Mitchell, but like QB - you can't take one based solely on need without supply. Maybe Louis Nix if we fall back. I've seen someone rail against drafting a tackle high when we've already got Brown, but that's iffy logic. O-Line makes or breaks your offense, and it's currently got ours in a hot mess. Newton is a backup. Brown is a gem, but what happens when he gets hurt? Gardner and Harris are terrible, even for back ups. Jake Matthews can play either side of the line, so stick him on the right side, Newton as your swing tackle, and enjoy the show. Brown is making plenty of money, but when Matthews' rookie deal is up, Brown is going to be well into his 30s and this is not a league known for old players. Otherwise, I talk a lot with the Browns and Rams to see if you can pull off a deal to fall back and come away with their two first rounders (even if you have to toss in a 3rd to the Browns or 2nd to the Rams).
So is no one that concerned about Bridgewater being from a crappy conference? At least with Luck, RG3, Cam, and Wilson, they were consistently going against other future NFL players.
That's a pretty bad reason to not select a QB, considering that almost half of the starting QB's this season were from a "crappy conference" Romo - Eastern Illinois Joe Flacco - Delaware (Last year's superbowl winner) Andy Dalton - TCU (they weren't in the BIG XII yet) Alex Smith - Utah Case Keenum - Houston Geno Smith - West Virginia (He played most of his career against the Big East) Big Ben - Miami....of Ohio (2 Super Bowls) Philip Rivers - NC State (The ACC wasn't much during his tenure) Matt Ryan - Boston College (Mostly Big East Competition) Colin Kaepernick - Nevada (Other QB in the Super Bowl) That's almost 1/3 of the NFL, I didn't include the other ACC QB's because I didnt' want to derail the thread with College conference disputes, but the fact remains that if a guy has it, then he has it. There are so many cases of players who came from small colleges to become big time players that it makes this discussion about college competition, no longer relevant
So what you're saying is you're not concerned at all, and you're sure that he has IT. Okay. I have not seen enough of TB play so I'm just going by what people write. Btw, I'm not saying he can't be a starting QB bc of the conference, I'm just wondering if it carries any weight at all that he plays in the AAC as to whether or not he should be the #1 pick in the draft. You're saying it doesn't matter, so cool, I guess.
If the Texans draft first, it's Bridgewater. If they draft second, it's Mariota. If they draft third, it's Manziel. Is that a pretty safe prediction? If so, it's imperative the Texans draft first or second, because I don't think Manziel will be able to take the hits a scrambler is going to take.
