[ClutchFans] Rockets to begin season with Beverley, Asik as starters; Jeremy Lin off bench

Kinda of annoying now. Let's stop here.

Lin is a better player than Pbev. Lin should be on the starting lineup but for whatever reason he is not.

Let's just hope that Lin will continue to be productive which is the most important thing for the team as well as for himself. Let Lin ride through his current contract and see what see what happens.

No more debate.

 

Dude, how did you get all those green squares by your name?

In this thread alone, the last 5 things you have said have been refuted.

 

You keep saying that you prefer that Lin coming off the bench and dominate the 2nd unit, but Lin can dominate the 1st unit just as well, hence his stats are a little better as starters. You also assuming that Lin coming off the bench means he will be free from Harden, but Harden plays so many minutes that there is very little time when he is not playing with Lin. Furthermore regardless of Lin starts or coming off the bench, Harden still dominates the ball. It's not like Harden knows he is tired and let Lin run the offense when he comes off the bench. I would agree with you if Harden and Lin take turn running the offense so both can go all out on attack mode, but they don't. Harden still runs the offense the majority of time he is in the game, tired or not.

 

So much truth here. If I was an optimist I would agree with all points, however the pragmatic side of me tells me that over the course of Lin's career he will never truly prove himself whatever he does or wherever he lands simply because "People are going to choose what they believe in". Even worse, people will believe what is perpetuated by the media; by what they see and hear. If ClutchFan's can't even get it right than there's not much hope that history will get it right. We know the drill. Product of the system. Not on the scouting report to lost his starting spot because he got outplayed? Putting up better numbers because he is playing against the bench? etc. etc. ad infinitum

 

I don't know... the last couple games Harden seems to have been letting Lin do more. A couple thirty point games and high shooting percentage might be affecting that. We'll see what comes.

 

Really, you think Lin can dominate the first unit? We do not live on the same planet.

Lins stats do not tell the tale. If Lin scores 20 points in a game he starts, many Lin fans will assume he did well as a starter because he started. What if he actually did most of his damage leading the attack when harden sat. What if he did most of his damage spotting up for three watching harden dribble, but it looks like he played a good aggressive game.

And you don't believe Lin when he says he has more freedom to attack coming off the bench. I have watched every game this year including preseason games. You can tell the difference, but Jeremy's comments are most telling, unless of course you think he is just being the polite Asian kid and singing the company tune.

 

Lin is in Bev's shadow? What? I think if you talk to Beverley, or anyone else on the team or coaching staff, they would tell you the Lin is playing better than Beverley. Except for the part where they wouldn't talk to someone outside the team at all.

Whatever the nefarious, misguided, or wise reasons they had for moving Lin to the Bench, his play is obviously good.

 

It could be Harden trusts Lin more, and it could be his injury. I like to believe it's the first, since he did encourage Lin to shoot more.

 

Except that his biggest +- are the three line ups when he's on the same unit as Harden, and not by a small margin.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13HOU4.HTM

Keep in mind, this year's Lin is not the same as last year's Lin. When Harden handles and kicks it out, Lin is shooting over 45% from 3. Lin is also one of the best passer's on the team, so when Harden passes, Lin can often skip pass it to an open shooter.

Combine his current shooting with his ability to drive and Dwight in the paint, and there really is no room to double team Harden without paying a stiff penalty.

Last year the complaint was that Lin couldn't co-exist with a ball dominant Harden. That's no longer true when Lin is currently the best 3 point shooter on the team, AND an elite drive to the rim player. In other words, he can now play off the ball as well as dominate the ball.

 

Your entire premise is that the best player should start. That's not the case with good teams and there are tons of examples. Ginobli didn't start because the spurs understood they had enoug offense on the starting unit and the bench needed manus leadership and ability to create offense.

The great irony is that people here are praising Popovich and the spurs, when Pops would likely bring Lin off the bench too.

Lamar odom didn't start because of the same reason. Nba history is littered with examples of this, but too Many Lin fans are frankly too uneducated about How winning teams are constructed or don't give a crap about winning.

If you want Lin to start, then you should go ahead and root for him to be traded off the rockets. It's not that he isn't a good player. It's that on good teams that want to contend, there are a bunch of options and bunch of good players, and Lin might not get the chance to start.

 

It could also be coaches encouraging him to bring a player along. He knows how to do that, as it was done for him when he was playing 6th man with two all-stars. Lin is already elite at driving to the basket. If his three point percentage stays up above 40%, he's headed into all-star territory himself.

 

Torocan, we just disagree about what it takes to win a title and maybe you don't care. I don't know.

I do know that offense is not this teams problem, it's defense. I also know that Beverly is a better defender and should be a competent three point shooter and we need to find out if he can handle it.

I also know that lins 44percent shooting from three won't last. It's about big picture vision for Lin and the team. I just don't see how starting Lin gets either goal there.

For the record, are you a Lin fan, rockets fan or both. I'm not trying to be a dick,I just ant to know where folks opinions come from. I got no problem if someone likes Lin and doesn't give a crap about the rockets. (I do hate when they are dumb about it though, which you obviously are NOT).

 

One problem is that both Harden and Lin have lower TS and efg% when the other is on the court, with Harden declining a bit more than Lin does.

 

I'm a Morey fan, Lin fan, Harden fan and Asik fan (though my fandom of Asik has taken a hit as of late). As a result I want to see the best results for the Rockets.

Mostly I'm a fan of basketball, though natively a Knicks fan.

I'm also very much a fan of efficiency and statistics.

As for my views on Lin's starting, I'm viewing it mostly through the lens of strategic choice. I'm a big believer in running up the score early and out of the half.

Intuitively it makes sense that when you put an opposing team in the hole, they'll have a tougher time winning. And if you start the game in a hole, it's harder for you to win.

Limited statistical sampling of quarter by quarter leads of one season has also shown that teams with better win records tend to create first quarter and third quarter leads, with a slightly higher correlation to a third quarter lead.

http://www.82games.com/random11.htm

By extension, if you look at the first portion of a quarter as a microcosm of the first quarter, then it would follow to reason that running up a 10 or 15 point lead in the opening minutes would intuitively increase your chance of winning. Just as pushing a lead in the 3rd quarter would do the same.

So my argument is that if you wish to win the game, your best option is to put your biggest advantage on the floor to start, then manage your minutes afterwards.

We must remember that Harden is currently playing 40 mpg on average. That leaves only 8 regulation minutes with him off the floor.

If Lin plays 34 minutes, then 26 minutes will be with Harden. I believe that 4-6 minutes of that should be with Lin in order to maximize the lead. I also believe that 4-6 minutes of that should be to open the 2nd half.

If we had a better line up to put on the floor to start, then it would be the best choice to do so, whether that is Lin or not. The relevance is not whether it is Lin or not, but that the players put on the floor create the highest probability of winning the game.

As for winning a Championship that is an entirely different discussion best saved for another thread. For now, we should be focused on getting a play off seed, which means maximizing regular season wins.

 

Rondo was in Houston. Is there something cooking now by Morey?

See source: http://news.sina.com.tw/article/20131119/11150219.html

 

Actually it is.

Points per possession for the team, as your argument was about floor general-ship, and not about creating individual offense, as you cited.



Let me know how you would like the shift the argument next.

 

I just don't want to see guys like Asik or Lin get marginalized.

Asik may be a lost cause at this point but I don't think Lin is. If the trends so far this season continue, then he should start. One - because it is better for the Rockets. Two - because it would make him easier to resign if we go down that road.

It's just a little vexing to see some fans here continue to claim that Bev is a lot better than him when it is becoming apparent that is not the case - nor is Bev a better "fit". I certainly hope the coaching staff isn't as stubborn. It is troubling to see fans on this very site say how Lin would be a much better fit on the Spurs - mainly because they have a better organization.

 

Do not forget :

EXPOSED as a SCRUB by the Miami Heat in early 2012

 

This is true and made me somewhat curious, so I messed around with the TS of other players in the line up with/without Harden/Lin on/off the court.

I used the NBAWowy on/off tool. It's a script so can't link the actual results.

http://nbawowy.com/

Parsons - TS%
W/Harden - 67.0%
W/Lin - 45.3%
W/Harden+Lin - 59.1%

Dwight
W/Harden - 51.0%
W/Lin - 50.0%
W/Harden+Lin - 57.4%

Casspi
W/Harden - 48.1%
W/Lin - 51.8%
W/Harden+Lin - 50.0%

Garcia
W/Harden - 48.4%
W/Lin - 46.4%
W/Harden+Lin - 59.4%

The numbers seem to bounce a bit up and down, though it appears that with the exception of Parsons, TS% goes up or stays the same, with increases in efficiency for Dwight and Garcia.

I'm guessing that this may be to the presence of Dwight + Lin + Harden limiting the opportunities to double-team. As for Parsons and Casspi vs Garcia I'll need to think on that.

It may be due to Casspi/Parsons driving more to the basket vs Garcia doing more spot up shooting, but I would have to dig more into the data before I felt comfortable with a hypothesis.

 

As I said, it's a skewed stat as it is affected by line ups. Lin is playing heavily with the reserves which is a less efficient unit. It is a PPP stat, but across ALL line ups.

If you put Lin with a weaker line up, and Bev with the starters more, and the starting line up is a stronger line up, then Lin will be skewed downward, and Bev will be skewed upward.

What you're trying to do is compare performance across all line ups simultaneously, with unequal line ups and minutes per line up. Mathematically that just doesn't work.

It's the same as trying to compare person A passing to Ray Allen and person B passing to Asik at the 3 point line so to speak.

Though I do appreciate that you're reading the foot notes on the page.