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Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by TTNN, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. CasaDolce

    CasaDolce Rookie

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    Fair enough. In restrospect, I should have said he "invited himself back into the game" instead of the more dramatic "checked himself back in". Basically Harden would get up and signal to McHale that he was going back in, and McHale would be like "oh okay". I guess that's respectful enough.
     
  2. Aleron

    Aleron Member

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    I think San Antonio fans wish Duncan checked himself back in
     
  3. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    If McHale could play Harden 48 minutes a game without any consequences on Harden's health, I'm sure he would do it. However, that's not the case, and McHale has to rest Harden as much as possible when possible.

    If Harden does ever request to check back into the game, the most likely reason is he feels he has had enough rest to return to the court in a game that is still competitive.

    I highly doubt Harden would request to check back into the game if the game is a blow-out.
     
  4. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Can't wait for the Harden forced McHale to make Lin come off the bench conspiracy
     
  5. Morlock O

    Morlock O Member

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    please don't give them any ideas :(
     
  6. Aleron

    Aleron Member

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    It's about Daryl Morey, but the whole Adelman/Mchale Morey thing was Before Lin so...
     
  7. kuku

    kuku Member

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    I looked up at basketball-reference.com at the lineup you provided. Their total minutes for were 283 minutes, which accounted for about 4 min/game for the season, hardly cause enough impact (about +1.2 points/game) for the whole game.

    This is a classic example of how someone can take a small section of stats and drive their point home. When they are on the court together, their stars aligned and the sum was greater than the parts. It hardly prove they are good players.

    Basketball reference showed every one of their bench players (except Odem) had a negative on/off court ratings. Even though they are raw data, it's still a better indicator than a five-man lineup.
     
    #427 kuku, Oct 29, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  8. kuku

    kuku Member

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    The more I think about Beverley's game, the more I think he is a smaller version of Shumpert. They both are:

    - Defensive pests
    - Great on ball defenders
    - Fit well with a ball dominant PG
    - Can knock down open 3's.
    - Very athletic with hop

    In that sense, Bev is more of a 2 than a 1. As in Harden's case, he is more of a 1 than 2.

    What makes Bev more valuable than Shumpert? He is actually small enough and quick enough defending against PG's! Most of team's ball dominant players are PG's. They are also the initiators of their offense. By causing problems at the initial point of attack, Bev can wreck hovac into their offense. Bev might just be the perfect 2 who plays along with Harden or Lin.
     
  9. RocketPowerNick

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    ... so why isn't Lin starting? Confused.
     
  10. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Actually, this is a classic example of taking stats out of context.

    The 5-man line-up with the most number of minutes for the Clippers is 699.6 minutes, this line-up also unsurprisingly has the highest net points per 100. And this only amounts for 8 minutes a game over the course of 82 games.

    The line-up with the 2nd most number of minutes is the one you just described, at 283 minutes.


    [​IMG]

    Obviously, the Clippers use a various number of line-ups, but they all have high degree of success.

    Where are you getting your numbers from?
     
  11. kuku

    kuku Member

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    When I said that someone takes a small sample to drive their point home, I was referring to the blog.

    <PRE>
    Player Split MP ORtg ORtg ORtg
    Blake Griffin On Court 2598 114.8 107.3 +7.4
    Off Court 1348 105.2 99.2 +6.1
    On Off 66% +9.6 +8.1 +1.3

    Chris Paul On Court 2335 116.5 106.7 +9.7
    Off Court 1611 104.3 101.3 +3.0
    On Off 59% +12.2 +5.4 +6.7

    Jamal Crawford On Court 2232 110.3 102.9 +7.3
    Off Court 1714 113.2 106.6 +6.6
    On Off 57% -2.9 -3.7 +0.7

    Matt Barnes On Court 2059 109.7 102.3 +7.4
    Off Court 1887 113.5 107.0 +6.5
    On Off 52% -3.8 -4.7 +0.9

    DeAndre Jordan On Court 2009 115.7 107.7 +8.0
    Off Court 1937 107.3 101.3 +6.0
    On Off 51% +8.4 +6.4 +2.0
    Caron Butler On Court 1880 114.1 107.3 +6.8
    Off Court 2066 109.1 102.0 +7.1
    On Off 48% +5.0 +5.3 -0.3

    Lamar Odom On Court 1617 108.5 98.8 +9.7
    Off Court 2329 113.6 108.5 +5.1
    On Off 41% -5.1 -9.7 +4.6

    Eric Bledsoe On Court 1553 106.1 101.5 +4.6
    Off Court 2393 115.0 106.5 +8.5
    On Off 39% -8.9 -5.0 -3.9

    Willie Green On Court 1187 110.9 106.5 +4.4
    Off Court 2759 111.8 103.7 +8.1
    On Off 30% -0.9 +2.8 -3.7

    Ronny Turiaf On Court 701 101.4 98.7 +2.7
    Off Court 3245 113.7 105.8 +7.9
    On Off 18% -12.3 -7.1 -5.2
    Ryan Hollins On Court 664 105.3 101.5 +3.8
    Off Court 3282 112.8 105.1 +7.6
    On Off 17% -7.5 -3.6 -3.8

    Grant Hill On Court 436 104.2 104.2 0.0
    Off Court 3510 112.4 104.6 +7.8
    On Off 11% -8.2 -0.4 -7.8

    Chauncey Billups On Court 417 117.1 111.0 +6.1
    Off Court 3529 110.9 103.8 +7.1
    On Off 11% +6.2 +7.2 -1.0

    Maalik Wayns On Court 37 101.4 97.2 +4.1
    Off Court 3909 111.6 104.6 +7.0
    On Off 1% -10.2 -7.4 -2.9

    DaJuan Summers On Court 7 92.3 92.3 0.0
    Off Court 3939 111.5 104.5 +7.0
    On Off 0% -19.2 -12.2 -7.0
    </PRE>
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAC/2013/on-off/
     
  12. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I think you have your numbers mixed up a bit. Barnes, Odom and Crawford all have positive on/off court rating.
     
  13. kuku

    kuku Member

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    I only went by the top five players who played the most minutes, and I stand corrected.
     
  14. TJ VS TR

    TJ VS TR Member

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    Nice one! It does mean something!
     
  15. gene18

    gene18 Rookie

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    Absolutely. I psted this opinion a while ago. If Harden plays 36minutes, only 12 minutes wont overlap.
     
  16. gene18

    gene18 Rookie

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    Synergy's overall Defence PPP last year was about equal for Lin and Beverley.Lin's was slightly better.Why are you insisting unequivacally that Beverley is a much better defender. Hollinger and Morey also said that Lin is. much better in the area of defense that people give him credit for.
     
  17. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    now we are roughly 10% into the season, and most likely we will drop the TT line up, thus it is a good time to look into the stats we have so far, compare to last season and again revisit the question Beverley and Jeremy, who fit the team the best.

    Let's first start with individual performance this season compare to last one.

    Individual performance: Shooting


    [​IMG]

    Here I listed all 4 our main player side by side with last season's numbers. (DH12 is not included since he is new to the team).

    We could see that, playing time, FGA, pretty much stay the same with James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Parsons, Beverley significantly increased with playing time, thus almost doubled his FGA which is anticipated.

    For James Harden, and Parsons, FG% roughly stay the same compare to last season, but across the board, 3FG% dropped but TS%, eFG% and FT% remain the same. Parsons decreased his 3FA.

    Compare Beverley and Jeremy, it is striking that Beverley across the board the FG%, 3FG%, TS%, eFG% all dropped almost 10%, whereas Jeremy in all these areas has more than 10% increase, which is amazing.

    I don't anticipate Jeremy's shooting% will remain like this for the whole season, but it is obvious that he improved his shooting, thus I would not surprise his full season number would be better than last season one. And, the argument Beverley is a better spot up shooter than Jeremy should be taken back for further observation. At least it is not shown now, and we could revisit till Beverley's shooting significantly improved.

    Individual performance: other


    [​IMG]

    Now let's look at rebound and TOV and assists. Basically everyone's assist number dropped, I'd say that's mostly due to changes in the team and less chemistry build up yet. Same could be saying that everyone increased their TOV.

    With increased playing time, Beverley got corresponding increased Offensive rebound, which is good, also personal fouls , which is no good. However, other advantage he shown last season in steals and blocks did not increase with playing time, they stayed the same as last season per game wise.

    All Jeremy, Beverley and Parsons increased their personal foul drawn, which is good, James is already elite in that department, so we don't see further increase. Both Beverley and Jeremy have assist and Assist ratio dropped, which I would think that's due to James is playing more PG role this season.

    Individual performance: Overall

    [​IMG]

    Now let's look at their overall performance in terms of +/- and rating.

    In terms of points per game and USG%, James and Parsons stayed the same as last season average. Both Beverley and Jeremy improved their pts/game, however, with 5 min more playing time, Jeremy have almost double the average PTS, well, that's not surprise, we all know Jeremy is much better offensively.

    Due to DH and Asik on the floor all the time, the whole team has improved their defensive rating, plus Jeremy also improved his individual defense, thus we see Jeremy has the most improved DefRtg, whereas Beverley has much smaller improvement in that number, since he was already pretty good last season. However, that's one thing I noticed, due to the improvement of the whole team defense, that advantage of Beverley over Jeremy got diminished here, as when you compare the DefRtg between Beverley and Jeremy, there is only 0.3 pt difference, whereas last season, it was more than 5.

    Whereas Beverley's advantage in defense is decreasing there, his disadvantage on offense is increasing. Within all 4 players, all their OffRtg dropped except for Jeremy. With Beverley has the biggest drop, almost 8pt.

    With these changes, the NetRtg difference of Beverley vs. Jeremy is striking. It totally reversed the trend compared to last season. If that difference granted the argument Beverley should start over Jeremy, I'd think it is only fair we should revisit the argument.
     
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  18. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    Tell that to McHale. Personally I do not care who starts as long as Lin finishes and gets 30+ minutes.
     
  19. yummyhawtsauce

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    Shumpert also guarded PG's too...
     
  20. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Member

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    Good observation. However, the stats is based of 50% of Lin starts (4 out of 8 games), so it doesn't justify the topic on who should start. Good to know nevertheless.
     

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