I never alluded to the outcome being the same. The only comparison is that a game can easily be lost when you are only up by 5 points with 21 seconds to go. In that respect, game 6 last year is a perfect example of a game not being over with 21 seconds to go. I never said the exact circumstances or outcomes were the same.
Sure, if we were playing the Miami Heat's starters and this was the Finals and not the 2nd game of the season. To make your argument credible why don't you find a game where the bench lost a winnable game in garbage time because the other team's bench got hot from the perimeter, and in regular season too.
Playing 3 PF's at the same time when you haven't palyed them all game long is pretty stupid. It didn't end up costing the Rockets the game, so it's alright, but basically what happened was like a guy out in a desert asking for water (to play a PF) and right before he dies of dehydration, McHale hits him with a fire hose. Some idiots around here can take that as "See what happens when we give people water(play a real PF)?" but people with a brain know better. Hopefully the rotations get fixed before it costs the Rockets any games.
Seriously, any of 3 PFs that were thrown in at the end of the game last night weren't expecting to play any more, since they missed first game, they didn't get time early in the game when we had a 20+ lead on Dallas, so it is understandable how they could be so lost. Also making 5/5 3pointers or so is not an easy thing to do. Yeah, you can blame McHale for million things, but not for this. I'd be more pissed if he continued to play starters with 17 point lead for the last minutes.
If the only way that you can see or understand a point is for it to be exactly the same, then you will have understand a point because no two games are exactly the same, for many reasons. For those that can reason, my point about being able to lose a game that you are only up by 5 points with 21 seconds left, is easily understandable and reasonable.
Dallas would've had the last laugh had they pull a quick one because of this. Those dirty (Dirk) bastards did everything they can, pulled every little trick, to try to take this one. I understand they wanted the W as any team should, but it was very annoying to say the least.
because this is OUR DIVISION! We have to show then Dirty Dirk Mavs that even our 3rd stringers will win.
The lead could have been only 4 points with 15.9 seconds left to go, if Dallas wouldn't have missed a layup. And it's not ONLY about resting starters, it's about WHEN to rest them, how MANY of them to rest, and the COMPOSITION of the lineup that you put out on the floor to close out a game even with a lead.
If you are going to panic after every close win, it is going to be a long season for you. Enjoy the ride, the team won ! DD
Every single season, top coaches like Pop or Spoeltra has one goal in mind: prepare the team for championship run. That means: 1. Fully healthy roster. 2. Peak performance entering playoff. Everything else before that is just secondary! You just don't gamble on the healthy of key players or burn them out in the regular season, even at the cost of losing a few games. I am one of the strongest critics of McHale but I can only say one thing about last night: Good job McHale!
Why do people like you call a discussion a panic because it's only a discussion? Who's panicking? I had drinks, was with great friends, and enjoyed the game immensely. Came here to talk about it today because I have the free time to do so. It's important to me because I want the ROCKETS TO WIN ALL THE GAMES POSSIBLE and THE CHAMPIONSHIP this year. I'm not just a blind fan that jumps up and down when we win and cries when we loses. I have a brain to think with as I enjoy the ride.
I agree with most of what you are saying to a certain degree. But those coaches have something that McHale doesn't as a coach: RINGS! I personally don't think we have the luxury to sacrifice a few games this year the way the Spurs or Heat can. We are still a young team and not playoff tested or proven. So the regular season and getting the best possible playoff position will be much more important to our playoff success than it will be to a team like the Spurs or Heat. The Heat have already lost two games, and no one is predicting that they still probably won't make the finals...yet. But if the Rockets had lost these first two games, the concern would be great for our chances because we haven't proven anything as a team on the floor yet. We just look pretty good on paper.
Haha at fools pointing to T-Mac outburst Vs Spurs. That and Miller vs Knicks (95?) are such rare sequences they stand out in the history of the league as come-from-behind-with-your-superstar-shooting-like-a-machine. So with 17 up in a regular season game against a team raising the white flag you don't bring in with less than 4 minutes subs that some argue should get more real PT, potentially a starting job.... give me an offing break....
The team won - it got close at the end - but never THAT close - we had the game the whole way. I doubt any other team comes in and hits a ton of 3pters and closes the gap like that and we won...the starters rested for tonight's game. Win win....why are we making panic threads after a win? DD
Thinking about this a little further, I simplified to the following model: team A and team B have N possessions, each. team A only shoots 3s at some given percentage, and team B only shoots 2s at some given percentage. each team alternates taking their shots, no rebounds or free throws or turnovers, all shots are independent of eachother Question: What's the probability that team A outscores team B by at least Q points? In our case, let's say the Mavs were team A and the Rockets were team B. Let's also say that the Mavs were hot from 3-point land, shooting 50%, and the Rockets were cold on their shots, shooting just 40%. Let's also give 10 possessions to each team, which is what happened to close this game. The expected points for the Mavs would simply be 10*3*.50, or 15. And for the Rockets it would be 10*2*.40, or 8. So, Mavs would outscore us by 7 points, on average. What's the probability that the Mavs would outscore us by at least Q=17 points in this scenario? I calculated it to be 4.7%, using the following (binomial) probability distribution for total makes by each team: Code: [B] team A team B[/B] 0 0.1% 0.6% 1 1.0% 4.0% 2 4.4% 12.1% 3 11.7% 21.5% 4 20.5% 25.1% 5 24.6% 20.1% 6 20.5% 11.1% 7 11.7% 4.2% 8 4.4% 1.1% 9 1.0% 0.2% 10 0.1% 0.0% Of course, expecting the opposing team to shoot 50% on 3s and your team to shoot only 40% on 2s is extremely pessimistic, and still there's less than a 1 in 20 chance that you'd lose a 17 point lead given 10 possessions to each team. What if we adjust it so that the Mavs shoot 45% on just 3s and we shoot 45% on just 2s (slightly more realistic, but still fairly pessimistic)? Then, the probability that they outscore us by at least 17 drops to 1.7%. Adjusting a little further towards realistic expectation, with Mavs shooting 40% on just 3s and us shooting 50% on just 2s, now the probability of them outscoring us by at least 17 drops down to 0.5%. The point here is that even if we assume the Mavs shoot nothing but 3s and they're "hot" from distance and we get nothing but 2-point opportunities, averaging less than 1 point per possession, its still extremely unlikely that they would overcome a 17 point deficit in a 4 minute time span.
While all these numbers look pretty and impressive, it would only make sense if you were calculating them out for entire games. It is clearly visible to any regular fan watching the NBA that teams go on RUNs quite often. Teams even start games on 15 to 0 runs sometimes or even more. So averages only matter once the entire game is played out. The Mavs went on a fun in that last four minutes and got the game to within 5 points with 21 seconds to go, A WINNABLE situation...regardless of the percentages. They could have had it down to 4 points with 15.9 seconds left to play if they don't miss a layup. A coach shouldn't put his team in that position with a 17point lead and under 4 minutes to go, simply because he makes a bad decision to sit every starter and put a lineup on the floor that has NEVER played a single minute together as a unit.
And of course we're assuming that McHale never puts the starters back in no matter how close the game gets. Ultimate6thMan, putting the bench in does not preclude bringing the starters back in an emergency: it wasn't an irreversible decision. At least the bench got some slightly meaningful minutes, not utter and complete garbage time.
Yes, we won. As a Rockets' fan, that's what I care about the most. As a concern about Coach McHale, I want him to do a better job of recognizing areas that he can improve upon, just as he expects his players to improve in certain areas. Putting in a HORRIBlE lineup of Brooks, Brewer, DMo, Jones and Smith that has no balance, for 4 minutes of play with only a 17 point lead, is NOT a wise decision by a coach trying to get home court advantage and win a championship this year.
