Elite Rebounding & Paint Protection vs. Stretch4/Spreading the Court

I actually thought we were talking about stats here. Isn't that what the OP asked? Of course coaches don't instruct their players to win by x number of points. But with a seasons worth of data we can say that if a team can reach the +8 PPG differential they will maximize their chances of being there at the end. For example the three highest teams in point differential last season were the Heat, the Thunder and the Spurs.

 

We all know that. Don't change the subject We were talking about single stats in a single boxscore.

 

like most people are saying, the twin towers lineup is just another tool in McHale's toolbox (as is Parsons or Casspi at the 4). as long as he uses the right tool for the job, we should be fine.

I think we'll see the greatest impact in the playoffs. if Dwight and Omer are both healthy and rested, it will make a huge difference. Also, when the game slows down (as it always does in the post season) and the shots aren't falling, it's good to know that we can throw those two in there and force the other team to beat us with jumpshots.

we knew we could win a shoot out, but now we're seeing signs that we can win a defensive brawl too.

 

You could just as well say the only thing that matters is winning the championship, it doesn't matter how you do it.

 

I would say rebounding and turnovers combined are about as important as shooting from the floor (offense and defense) and free throws (offense and defense) combined. Score simplistically is offensive possessions (rebounding and turnovers) times offensive points per possession (shooting from floor and free throws) versus defensive possessions times defensive points per possession.

If Team A is better at ppp than Team B is at getting more possessions, Team A wins.
If Team B is better at getting more possessions than Team A is good at ppp, Team B wins.

Better is defined by relative percent difference between offense and defense.

 

Stats folks talk about 4 Factors of basketball -- shooting from the field, turnovers, rebounds, and turnovers. A discussion of these factors and an approximate weighting in terms of importance is given here:

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm

[rquoter]Specifically, at the NBA level, the general ranking of importance of the Four Factors is

Shooting percentage (10)
Turnovers per possession (5-6)
Offensive rebounding percentage (4-5)
Getting to the foul line (2-3)
The number after each of the factors is an approximate weight on the factor, on a scale from one to ten, that indicates how important it is to winning a game. So, with shooting being most important, turnovers and offensive rebounds end up about half as important. Getting to the line is half again as important.[/rquoter]

Rebounding/paint protection helps in our overall shooting defense to some degree via rim protection, and also our rebounding on both ends. However, there's diminishing returns in adding a second 7 footer to a lineup as far as rebounds go, and it can actually hurt your shooting defense against some lineups.

A stretch 4 improves our shooting on offense, without question.

You have to project how much the different lineups would improve or hurt each factor, and then judge from there which overall is the better option.

 

Are you kidding? Asik owned LMA last year.

 

I like having the twin towers, and having a rim protector and rebounder for 48 minutes. I also like the idea of Asik at the center and Howard at PF, at times. I believe Asik and Howard can play together.

Howard showed why he was the rebounding champ and defensive player of the year 3 times. Howard impacts the game even if he is not scoring.

 

Yep. You nailed it. One elite front court rebounder on the court is more than enough. Any more and they start cannibalizing each others rebounds. That is why if you are trotting out a Howard or Asik at the center position you do not need a strong rebounding power forward. The center and the power forward are basically responsible for gathering rebounds in the same court area.

I need to start thinking about a lengthy post on the issues you just raised.

 

Since a stretch-four lineup will shoot better, and twin-towers lineup will rebound better, I think that the OP is asking something like: How much is an additional offensive rebound per 100 possessions worth in terms of true shooting percentage?

 

Defense wins championship. Either defense 4 or stretch 4 have their goods and bads, but defense should be preferred in the playoff. And besides, for us, defense inside was the weakness last year when Asik wasn't on the court. With Howard, 48 min rim protection is going to be lethal in playoff. However, it doesn't mean we can't trade Asik for a stretch 4 that also has reasonable defense skills. Our reserve 4s don't have that right now, they may have the stretch 4 ability, but their defense is a big drop from Asik.

 

And I am thinking about it. Durvasa brought up the classic 4 factors analysis of the situation. This could be modeled for the Rockets line up. But until then just consult durvasa's post.

 

About 0.564% for last year's Rockets.

 

I'll figure why not have a very good midrange shooter at the 4

the only spot where midrange should be key

 

It is not EITHER or, having a little of both is more valuable imho, we can get by with 36 minutes of elite rim protection and 12 minutes of just ok interior D, IMO.

We just don't have enough scoring with Dwight and Asik in the lineup together and teams will wear Harden out over time having to carry that much of a load.

DD

 

But what about turnovers. And how much data do we have on this anyway? Even throughout history.

I would also say, so what if there are diminishing returns in rebound differential if it increases opponent turnovers via the blocks/charges/guards cheating that rim and paint protection provide. I mean, your formula considers both TOs and Rebounds.

JVG would say that paint and rim protection produce more turnovers, too.

btw: then you measure Total Scoring efficiency per time down the court. And you add a failed possession for turnovers and offensive fouls, whether the team shot the ball or not. You can generate a possession efficiency from that, easily, where possession is defined as total time with ball before opponent retakes the ball.

But you fail to consider all four factors. You are not considering turnovers and defensive FG%. Who cares if the rebound differential have diminishing returns if overall Possession differential increases.

I think it's simply much easier to look at a box score and see if total possessions determined the winner.

 

With our perimeter D, coupled with defensively average 4, Dwight alone cannot provide elite rim projection for 36 min and is going to get worn down anyway.

Asik and Dwight are only going to play together probably 8-15 minutes and Harden doesn't necessarily play all those minutes (though that often might be a necessity).

And most importantly, if Asik is traded and unless there's another trade, we won't have "ok interior D" when Dwight isn't playing. We will have absolutely ridiculously s**tty interior D with Smith/D-Mo/Jones at the center spot. I remember people complaining about Chuck Hayes at the center and how our opponents were forming "a layup line". And Chuck was ELITE at every other part of defense. Our other bigs are not ELITE defensively at anything and their interior D isn't good enough to play the five position.

 

I'll say it again: Dwight and Asik played together for a total of 13 minutes last game. And it's possible we would have gone smaller longer had Beverley not gone down.

We're making too big of a deal about 13 minutes. McHale SHOULD use that lineup each game for some minutes. We can't fill 48 minutes with a combination of small ball and young PFs who are not ready for starter minutes. We must play Asik and Dwight together for some part of the time.

Why not?

 

It certainly is not so simple as merely looking at the box score. The highest weight in the 4 factors is by far eFG. And you are basing your analysis on one game versus one of the 5 weakest teams in the league? I was completely disheartened by that game. Good defense and rebounding and a stagnant offense against CHA gets you a resounding loss against the Spurs or the Heat. If the Rockets play that way against Dallas they are in for an a** whomping.