The Rockets will get on TV at some point this season... whether its with a separate network, or CSN. This thing will be resolved after this "negotiating period". Eh, this whole thing basically reaffirms to me how meaningless the NBA regular season really is, and how it should probably be 10-20 games shorter.
Yeah, absolutely - it would require some kind of fair market value deal to get Comcast out of the mix. It just seems like a relatively quick route to changing partners that I don't think any of us had considered. I think the alternative was always thought to just be FSSW because a ROOT Sports network was considered to be too much work and Comcast would resist carrying it at this point. But if the carriage agreement with Comcast is locked in, that opens a completely new door here.
Doubtful, but it would still be a problem since they are the most subscribed cable or satellite service in Houston, and have had Houston sports (dating back to when they were time warner) since the very beginning. Plus, they could always stash it on a premium tier.
Looking back, you can see the telegraph from the Judge when he specifically asked Crane, while he was on the stand, how long he thought it would take him to get something worked out.
They aren't going to be. As part of this deal, Comcast's carriage rate was preserved. That helps make it attractive to a potential buyer (Say DTV, or Fox) as they don't have to worry about a negotiation battle with Comcast.
Exactly..addressed the concern that was brought up here a bunch that if the Astros walked they would never be able to find a deal that would work, because Comcast would never agree to carry them to the 40% of the market with Comcast. Will be interesting to see what value is assigned to Comcast's equity in CSN after they've been arguing it's a bankrupt company in need of a trustee.
The light at the end of the tunnel is the Astro Train in left field that Crane covered up with those god awful signs. The Rockets seasons is about to get Junction Jacked.
I take it as a given that the original asking price was and remains too high - unreasonably so in fact. The utter lack of success at getting any of the major carriers on board confirms this, so I assume it is correct. Even today, this very day, if their asking price were reasonable, a deal would get done. If we take that as a given, then that brings up the next question: Why does the asking price REMAIN too high? I cannot think of any other business at all where a company brings a product to market, discovers their asking price to be too high, and then the company refuses in perpetuity to ever lower the price, redesign the product, cut costs, take their losses on existing inventory and then try again to bring a product to market at a price which will sell. It SEEMS that Comcast and the Rocket both, as entities, understood this reality fairly early on. It also SEEMS that the Astros/Crane did not, or would not. It seems that Comcast and the Rockets were of the pragmatic mindset that they should try to get the best deal possible under the reality of the market, even as early as November of 2012. But it seems that Crane refused to accept the reality of the market, and would not only not agree to a market-level deal, but also would not even agree to negotiate downward AT ALL. Now while I disagree with mentality on display there, I do *understand* it. So the new revelation is that the Astros were the ones wanting out of the deal. The question is, why? Seriously, why are they wanting to break ranks from Comcast? It seems there are two plausible reasons: One, (and the one we are hoping is true) that Crane thinks he can get a better, more profitable deal which will also be more acceptable to the carriers. I don't know how this could possibly actually come to pass, unless this also includes the total elimination of the entity known as CSN - the assets, employees, facilities, everything.. all go away, along with the related expenses, and they are just picked back up by FSSW or something, so expenses are lower, allowing for higher profitability AND lower prices to the carriers. The implication of this would be that it was Comcast who was deliberately suppressing distribution for their own nefarious ends, and which would in the end make Crane be the one wearing the white hat. This would essentially put them right back to where they were before the CSN debacle. But I still don't see how this would put Crane on the magical equal footing with the Rangers. OR Two, (and the one I am afraid may be more true) that Crane is just mad that he has not been paid what he believes he was owed for his rights during the last season. The reason I ask all this is because I can't see an endgame for Crane here. If CSN stays intact as a production entity, and simply changes hands, how has this lowered costs, and therefore brought Crane's demanded price down to reality? How could it? Under this scenario, the situation hasn't really changed - unless the price comes down, no carriage deals will happen. If some completely new company takes the reins as production entity, producing something basically the same as CSNH, then again, unless the costs are so substantially lower that Crane can achieve his profitability while at the same time lowering the asking price enough that the carriers will bite, then again, as before, nothing will happen and there will STILL be no distribution. If they just end up back at Fox with their tails between their legs, how does Crane achieve his profitability demands without actually asking Fox for MORE, not the same or less? The whole point of CSNH in the first place was allegedly to raise the Astros' income level to the same level of teams like the Rangers and the Angels. I don't see how going back to Fox can give this to him either. I guess I just don't see a way out for Crane that does not involve him having to take less than he has been demanding all along, and seeing as how he has refused to budge even a penny up to this point, I am not hopeful that he can suddenly miraculously find a deal to his liking in the next 30 days. So what's the endgame here? If the result is not a price low enough that the carriers will pick them up, then none of this goes anywhere. What is out there that Crane thinks he can find that will give him what he wants while also giving the carriers what they want?
Basically what you are hoping for is that DTV or Fox will come in and offer money up front to buy the network. Crane isn't worried so much about the networks' profitability as much as he is worried about his CUT of that potential profitability. What if DTV comes in and offers a load of cash to take over the station that would cover the revenue that Crane was supposed to get over the next 5 years that are being sucked down by the reported loss? Done deal. DTV takes over, gets it on and goes to negotiate with UVerse and Dish, Comcast gets a buyout and their most favored nation status saves them some additional money, the Astros get some cash to compensate for the lost revenue projected for the next 5 years, and the Rockets get on tv.
I don't know what the endgame is. I'm fairly convinced that Crane has some ideas in mind...and we know he's been at least speaking to alternatives. Comcast is having this same fight around the country. My understanding is that the other RSN carriers are not. Perhaps that's part of it. But at this point, you have the Astros ready to roll because they weren't being paid even under their broadcasting agreement. They were clearly ready to roll out the door. I don't know what else has gone on behind the scenes that makes them think they can't work with Comcast but that they may be able to work with someone else.
Not seeing why DTV thinks they could make the money off the $3.90 rate when it's obvious no one wants to pay it. Crane is expecting $3.90 per subscriber revenue. I hope when this deal gets done that all of the Crane supporters get upset when Crane announces he didn't get enough to compete.....
You have to realize that Crane has an idea up his sleeve. He didn't have to make this deal. The judge was going to bounce this bankruptcy hearing and Crane was going to be free to walk away. That he agreed to a deal that keeps everything together with him in charge SHOULD indicate he has a plan he can get implemented within 30 days.
We have no idea how low Crane was ultimately willing to go. We do know that he was unwilling to accept the only 2 offers from only one carrier that were brought to the table by Comcast over the course of a year.
