Yes And it makes the Rockets' attack so much more unpredictable to have both their play makers involved. These I think are the reasons why the combination of an attacking high scoring, high assist, high turnover point guard like Lin is said to be the best possible combination with a versatile, high scoring, three point shooting, high assist wing like Harden and a dominating, high blocks, high scoring, high rebounding center like Dwight, in the Sloan Sports Analytics Study (D Morey's conference) that came out last year. Having two play makers on the floor is not redundant, it makes possible more devastation. http://www.sloansportsconference.co...rt-Ayer-Sloan-Sports-Analytics-Conference.pdf
from the same whitepaper For instance, duplicative players, with one exception, generally result in a poor fit, leading to underperformance in expected wins. The analysis also showed that high-scoring point guards don’t mesh well with high-scoring 2 guards. Talented, high-scoring centers fit well with more limited, defense-oriented power forwards who rebound very well, which also aligns with conventional wisdom. Unexpected results include the degree of fit when teams have two high-scoring 2 guards. While most would say that these teams would not be a good fit, the analysis showed that these teams consistently over-performed their expected wins, relative to team talent and coaching skill. Finally, the analysis highlighted the importance of multi-faceted small forwards, who shoot 3 pointers well. Teams that featured this type of player tended to over-perform expected wins by the greatest amount, as long as there was not another similar player among the top players on the team.
LOH's, Guys, I have a serious question and just want to better understand your thoughts First off, I want the best for the Rockets and if that means to have Lin as a back up, so be it (although I don't think that is the best option) My question is why not continue starting Lin a bit longer and at least evaluating how things go? I mean, its not like he had a bad pre-season. if anything, he seems to have improved from last year and there is not enough time yet where anyone can say Lin cant play with Harden or Dwight? Thus, I am personally ok w Lin being a backup but I am not ok with the process as I dont think we gave him a fair shot at starting assuming Lin does indeed becomes a back up Thoughts?
Yes, that's right. The combination of two high-scoring 2 guards is one of the combinations found to have a negative impact. But what is interesting is that the addition of a dominating center like Dwight changes the result dramatically. The paper finds that combination to have a regression coefficient of +13.6, far higher than for any other combination. That's why before we see how Lin-Harden can work with Dwight, drawing conclusions about Lin's effectiveness with the starting lineup seems premature to me. Last year's numbers (whatever they are concluded to show) simply do not reflect what is possible now with Dwight here. Also note that Robert Ayers at the conference described Dwight's 2009-2010 Orlando Magic that reached the NBA finals as being a classic example of the 7-8-12 combination which is Lin-Harden-Howard. It's just a paper, of course. But it at least raises questions about assumptions regarding Harden and Lin's ability to work together.
You can't win back something you didn't lose. No one in the organization has said its a competition. We assumed it but no one has said it, and the way things are handled, it isn't at all a competition. It's about seeing whether bev could start. If he could handle the starting role, it's his. Mchale thinks he's a better fit with harden but need bigger sample size to validate himself. Lin didn't play bad enough to warrant "losing" his spot and bev hasn't outperformed Lin to a point where he has "won" the spot. This whole Lin is a bad defender thing is a total myth. He player the role that bev played last year when he was on golden state. And he was one of top 20 candidates for defensive player of the year by nba.com last January. He can play some d. Different style then bev but that's prob why he's on the bench.
The Twin Towers can work, b/c the Lakers won series 4–1 against Magic in 2009 finals. It proved 2 Bigs+1SG can be better than 1 Big+4 small. Before the MEM. pre-season game, most of people said the D12 can't work with Asik, including Jonathan Feigen. Now, everyone feels good about D12+Asik. (only 1 game change their mind? SMH) Bev. is a player with spark. If Harden is on fire, starting him is a shortcut to win a single game, but the ceiling is not as high as Lin+Harden. It helps Harden to compete MVP title, but risky to his health.
I think that people may feel Lin cannot be much better than he was last year and as did not like him last year there is no point in playing him this year. They don't like his game in terms of dribbling, passing, shooting, defense, as well as having to hear it from his fans IF Lin does well. Plus, they just plain like Bev better. As a rebuttal, if Bev performed like Linsanity and scored 38 on the Spurs and Lakers, I personally feel they would have wanted Bev to start no matter how pesky his backup played defense or "fit" Harden better. In fact, most of the haters wanted him gone last year and liked Toney Douglas over Lin as well. The same was true in NY as well. Even in the midst of Linsanity, an awful lot of people wanted Lin benched or traded and thought he was a scrub. Having said that, Bevs been doing great and I definitely see potential so the case is better made today to get rid of Lin or to bench him as Bev actually, this time, is a true viable option at pg. Personally, I think given Lin's clear potential and higher ceiling, his improvements in shooting/ decision making, and incumbent status, you have to keep Linnas a starter to see if he can take the next step as that would help us greatly in achieving our goal of winning a championship. Lin's uptempo run n gun affinity, playmaking opposite Harden, pnr ability and ability to use Howard or Asik makes him a valuable player to invest in developing. If you think he can't shoot, can't defend, and doesn't add much to our uptempo offense (I feel that our offense will take a big hit if Lin is on the bench and we cannot run the same run n gun offense without Lin) then clearly you would want him off he team, I just happen to disagree.
That's one perspective. I like both PGs, but I think that with Lin and Harden in the backcourt together, that's a more explosive lineup especially if they can really figure out how to play off of one another better. So I'd be quite happy with McHale wanting to stick with that backcourt. But I have read others who are Lin fans who feel that if McHale wants to start Beverley, he should just go ahead and do it and not pull Lin in the middle of the season. That makes sense too. My position is pretty simple, ultimately. I have my own preference for what I'd like to see be successful, but I also think there's a good case to be made either way and I don't have any great insight into why one is better than the other. Its a long season, and I'm willing to go along with either choice to start the year. If it becomes clear that it isn't working out and McHale stubbornly sticks to the same lineups, then I'll start getting upset. But right now, I'm just along for the ride and excited to see what happens.
I honestly don't think Beverly is as good as some people think he is defensively so based off talent, Lin. Beverly seems to me to be inbetween Kyle Lowry and Rafer Alston in terms of defensive skills (not a bad position mind you) but without the same talent for distributing or moving with the ball that those two showed. Which if this offense follows last season's model and Harden brings up the ball on 80% of the plays that might be fine, except I don't trust Harden is completely over his turn over issues. Lin may not be much better with his handles but he has shown more ability at scoring and passing. Seems like the coaches and this board have already made up their minds but personally, outside of a few hustle plays, I've not been that impressed to say he is a starting PG, especially given how while I love James Harden, I think the team needs to take the ball out of his hand some more and not have him always trying to make passes like he is a PG.
This comparison is a bit flawed... Neither one of our towers has the offensive weapons nor the passing ability of Pau Gasol. If we stick to this comparison, then we have a faster, athletic Andrew Bynum in D12 and the former without the offensive capabilities in Asik. Not to say that I don't like the idea of the twin towers but I think the Lakers is a poor comparison to use as a support to this notion.
I don't care who starts, but if Lin couldn't get enough PT with DWIGHT...I will be disappointed. Lin + Howard pick and roll is FUN to watch! I just hope Lin could still play for 30 mins a game. we need him.
There is little doubt he'll get 28 to 31 minutes a game. I think his role will be as a primary scorer off the bench. Come in attack the basket put pressure on the defense and go from there.Thats what he does really well. He can disrupt the defense by attacking the basket and finishing or drawing fouls.
It is not clear but McHale mentioned in an interview 26 and 27 1/2 minutes to be shared between Lin and Beverley. Which comes out to 42 1/2 minutes for Harden. I can't remember exactly, but that seems pretty much in line with what Harden played per game last year, when the team was not blowing out opponents.
I think this is what makes many Lin fans paranoid, and with good reason. Blindly trusting the coaching staff does not always work. If it did, then why are coaches fired so often.
