2013/2014 Playing time distribution

Very surprising to see that Lin could get 32 minutes and Bev could get 30 minutes.

 

But I am totally looking forward to when the coaching staff experiments with both of them on the floor. It will be interesting.

 

I'm very curious who they are going to try playing with Asik/Howard. Regular starters is easiest to try, but it might be another grouping altogether.

 

In fact this whole season will be damn interesting. There are lineup possibilities galore! Small ball - Parsons and Casspi. Medium ball - Howard and Jones. Really big ball - Asik and D-Mo. Diminutive ball - Lin, Bev, Harden, Parsons and Howard. The possibilities are endless!

 

3 "smalls" (among Lin, Beverley, Harden, and Garcia) would make the most sense, I think.

 

I think so to. Because as soon as Asik and Howard step onto the floor together teams are going small, fast and mobile. They do not need a big man to guard Asik. He has hands of stone so all they need to do is keep him tagged around the basket. Against IND you actually might see George as the PF. He will drive Asik/Howard stupid chasing him around the court.

 

Yes, but it also means they will be reacting to us, and may not be putting their best players out there.

It could work. I can certainly see that it is worth trying.

 

My guess:

PG: Lin 22, Beverley 26
SG: Harden 38, Lin 10
SF: Parsons 25, Garcia 15, Casspi 8
PF: Howard 14, Casspi 12, Dmo 12, Parons 10
C: Howard 20, Asik 28

 

Now that we know what the final fifteen man roster is going to look like (clearly Reggie Williams will be the final cut), here is what the minutes distribution should look like early in the season, in my opinion:

All G minutes: J. Harden 36 min/g, J. Lin 32, P. Beverly 28 (three man rotation)
SF: C. Parsons 32, F. Garcia 16
PF: D. Howard 12, O. Casspi 20-24, T. Jones 12-16
C: O. Asik 28, D. Howard 20

Nine-man rotation:

J. Harden 36
D. Howard 32
C. Parsons 32
J. Lin 32
O. Asik 28
P. Beverly 28
O. Casspi 20-24
F. Garcia 16
T. Jones 12-16

That final rotation spot is in flux. Look for Jones, D. Motiejunas, and G. Smith to all be in the mix. Also get ready for trade rumors involving Asik, Jones, and Motiejunas. The market will develop for Asik. I expect either Jones or Motiejunas to be moved by the February deadline, either in a package with Asik or separately in a trade for a highly protected first round pick. I no longer believe a market for Lin will develop and expect Houston to stick with this exact three guard rotation for the entire season, and probably for the entire 2014-15 season, too.

Stashed in the d-league: I. Canaan, R. Covington. Probably for the entire season.

That means the end of the bench is comprised of R. Brewer, A. Brooks, and 2 of the three young bigs (Jones, Motiejunas, Smith).

This roster has excellent cap flexibility. The only player/contract that is difficult to move is Lin. Which is why I now expect him to play out his contract in Houston. Which is fine; it's not like he sucks, and continuity is always nice.

I do expect Asik to get traded before the deadline. There is a market for him, and Houston can get a valuable asset for him. I also cannot believe that Houston wants to pay the guy $15 mil in 2014-15. Those who think an Asik-centered package can fetch an All-Star PF are being silly, and will be disappointed in what Houston winds up getting for him. I think Houston gets back a first round pick (a pretty good one, too) and an expiring contract. The Asik trade opens up more playing time for these three young bigs (Jones, Motiejunas, Smith), most likely.

 

My guess:

PG: Beverley 34, lin 8, brooks 6
SG: Harden 36, Lin 12
SF: Parsons 30, Garcia 18
PF: Howard 14, Casspi 20, dmo 8, Parsons 6
C: Howard 20, Asik 28

 

Mostly agree with this. Maybe a few 2 guard mins also go to Garcia depending on how hot he can get. I see fewer mins for Tjones/Dmo starting the season but hopefully should increase to 20. I worry though, about Howard playing a whole quarter worth of mins with Asik. But lets see.

 

Impressive work. Can't wait to see how this all plays out.

 

Lin- 22/Bev-26
Harden-38/Lin-10
Parsons-26/Garcia-22
Dwight-16/Casspi-24/Parsons-8
Omer-28/Dwight-20

 

I'm certain it won't play out as I projected there. I assumed Casspi would be used interchangeably with Parsons, but he's going to be used almost exclusively as a 4. Also, I tried to cram in both D-Mo and Jones into the rotation, but one or both of them will most likely be out.

 

Lin 30 / Bev 30
Harden 35 / Brewer 5
Parsons 35 / Garcia 15
Dwight 32 / Casspi 20
Asik 25 / DMo 10

Not saying DMo will play center, but it was easier like this. I could really see Brewer not playing at all most games.

 

Your point guard minutes distribution is clearly spot on

 

Might as well put playoff minutes too:

PG: Beverley 36 Lin 12
SG: Harden 40, Lin 8
SF: Parsons 32, Garcia 16
PF: Howard 10, Parsons 6, Casspi 32,
C: Howard 28, Asik 20[/QUOTE]

 

Garcia and Casspi will have more contribution.

 

Jones and Dmo are going to share 10-15 minutes and the rest of the minutes will go to Asik. There is no way in hell Asik is going to average less than 25 minutes this season.

 

If Asik is to get 25 minutes a game, then D-Mo and Jones will get very little minutes between them:

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