Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Response

I would actually like to see Bev start the entire season, so we have some accurate data to base on our arguments.

 

Response

Go ahead and try instead of saying it.

 

So we conclude we don't have a decisive conclusion which we should start pb or jl, neither do the coaching staff.

We've got so many parameters to measure for the offensive side, curious what parameters we should take to know which one is better fit, is ppp enough?

 

Oh come on , just "IF" doesn't make any sense here. you definitely can make any comparison you want. and i'd love to see more stats based research even it is limited.

 

Well, if you lay out a wall of offensive analysis and then say this --

-- it's reasonable to infer that you are asking why the conversation is even being had in the first place, given the results of your research.

I'm not sure what else you could have meant, but either way, I'm obviously not the only person who read it that way. Anyway, I appreciate your work, as I said.

 

Could someone intelligently make an counterargument that tells how Bev does defensively instead of just being vicious?

Lin isn't very bad on defense anyways.

 

I feel the same. I guess because he is a Lin fan, he is automatically dismissed by some people as biased.

Well, we are all biased to a certain extent. And no analysis is perfect. It's one thing to point out deficiency of his post. It's another thing to just attack him no matter what he provides.

If you think his argument is totally wrongheaded, then give you own statistical evidence and let's talk about it.

 

Your link didn't work for me.

http://www.csnhouston.com/basketball-houston-rockets/talk/mchale-start-howard-and-asik-vs-mavs

I like that idea. I think a three guards rotation with a little bit of Harden at SF would be very nice.

 

Okay

Team stats with lineups: +Asik+Parsons+Harden -Greg Smith

Close shots 62%(40% of total shot attempts)
3pt shots 37%(32% of total shot attempts)
In-between 35%(28% of total shot attempts)

Points-Per-Possession 1.092

Team stats with lineups: +Greg Smith+Parsons+Harden -Asik

Close shots 65%(35% of total shot attempts)
3pt shots 35%(40% of total shot attempts)
In-between 39%(25% of total shot attempts)

Points-Per-Possession 1.142

Conclusion

Rockets shoot 5% more times at the rim with Asik, but at 3% less efficiency. Rockets shoot 8% more 3s with Smith on the court, at 2% less efficiency. Overall PPP shows edge to Smith. At best, we can say they're more or less even.

So there. I did the legwork of finding how the team shoots at various places on the court with Asik vs. Greg Smith. Now can you conclude that Greg Smith is just as good a backup center as Asik? I can't. Neither should the OP when using similar methodology to compare Lin with Beverley.

Whole Picture: Opponent PPP with Greg Smith was 1.151. Opponent PPP with Asik was 1.050. I won't bother with the breakdowns, but suffice to say the Rockets defense looked like utter crap when Smith played in place of Asik. In totality, the Rockets are slightly worse than their opponent when Smith is on the court. They are vastly better with Asik.

See how the picture changes when you account for both sides of the ball instead of one side?

 

Safe to say that PPP is useless

 

No stat is useless, just misleading.

A player who scores 30 points on 30 shots is obviously not the same as a player who scores 30 points on 15 shots, but a person could ignore the shot attempts and proclaim both players as equally good scorers. That doesn't mean the points scored doesn't tell you anything about the players though.

 

How so? Basically all it is is points divided by possessions.

If team A scores 100 points on 100 posessions, and Team B scores 100 points on 90 possessions, do you believe Team A and B are equal offenses?

 

Great nickname for our point guards: PB&J.

 

Depends, which one has Lin?

 

Why is everyone jumping on TTNN? I've been following this thread from the beginning and I have no problem understanding that he was talking about the offensive side of the game. His conclusions were based off the offensive side.

If you want to talk about the defensive side of the game, by all means. I would love reading some in depth defensive impact of our guards. But don't make it seem like he owes you a defensive stat breakdown because that's what you want to see. He doesn't.

I guess its because he's a Lin fan, so his effort is worthless and should be dismissed.

Anyways, keep up the good work TTNN.

I, at least, enjoyed reading your post and wish there were more stats supported arguments being made.

Dave

 

Beverley wasn't sitting on the couch eating Twinkies for the first half of the season. He was playing in Europe.

That being said, how do you figure it's easier to just jump into the middle of the NBA when you've never played in the league, for the team, or with any of the players? If anything the opposite is true.

 

Depends so it still needs other parameters and variables to be useful info

By it self, PPP is just still raw, lame and basic

 

The OP makes multiple declarative statements based on clearly incomplete information. To expect no pushback is hard to understand.

 

I think the problem is that the dissenters are not offering a good enough argument supported in the same manner as the original post. If they have a problem with it, they should be able to support their claims in a logical and rational manner supported with evidence instead of attacking the OP's integrity. He obviously put a bit of time and effort in making this post, so it's understandable that people get a little peeved when others come into the thread, skim over his argument and declare him biased in the span of five minutes.

 

Not taking a side here, just was curious so looked it up.

Beverley's last game with Spartak St. Petersburg was Dec 23, 2012. I don't quite understand EuroCup, so could be wrong. But it looks like they have a 10 round regular season, one game per week starting in mid October.