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Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by TTNN, Oct 18, 2013.

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  1. rubbertoe

    rubbertoe Member

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    This is probably true because the stats on 2nd teams suck. Bev is going up against the backups.

     
    #181 rubbertoe, Oct 20, 2013
  2. meh

    meh Member

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    Perhaps you should start to look at defense so people won't criticize you for your offensive bias. There are two parts to the game. Offense and defense. Each worth 50%.

    Ignoring 50% of the game is quite frankly, something only people with agendas do. Do you have an agenda? Or do you wish to find the truth, whatever it may be?
     
    #182 meh, Oct 20, 2013
  3. steady

    steady Member

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    1. You have to adjust for pace. If you look at the minutes played and the number of possessions, you will see that the team was playing with more pace with Jeremy.

    1.94 possessions/minute with Bev
    2.02 possessions/minute with Lin.

    Efficiency is bound to go down, when pace picks up, the question is by how much. If you multiply the possessions per minute by the PPP you get

    2.205 points per minute for Bev
    2.207 points per minute for Lin

    They are basically even.

    2. Sample size. Your sample is 162 minutes over 33 games for Bev, and 481 minutes over 28 games for Lin. First this is a small sample size for Bev, 162 minutes. But even going with that, we are talking about a per game sample (of playing with Harden/Parsons/Asik -- your criteria) of 4.9 minutes per game for Bev over the stretch you looked at. Your sample for Lin comes out to 17.2 minutes per game for Lin.

    Keeping in mind that your numbers are based on minutes played with Harden/Asik/Parsons. If you consider that Bev usually subbed for Lin around 3x a game, you have Bev playing with this core group only approximately 1.63 minutes to 4.9 minutes each time he played with them (depending on how the substitutions happened).

    I have a big basic problem with these numbers comparisons as regards Bev and Lin because they played such different roles last year. And although you were trying to solve one sample problem (which was good), it seems you ran into another one. Your numbers can only show Bev's effect for pretty short periods of time. And for those periods, the surprising thing to me is that, the points per minute Bev achieved when on the floor with the starters, pretty much match up to what Lin achieved with them over more prolonged periods of time.

    Anyway, interesting mind puzzle for Sunday ... thanks for posting.

    BTW, I agree with you, I think D12 changes everything. Also given both Lin and Bev's improvement over the off season , I think it's very hard to make any predictions based on last year's numbers. All we know for sure is that both are going to be significantly better.
     
    #183 steady, Oct 20, 2013
  4. steady

    steady Member

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    This is the post I was responding to.
     
    #184 steady, Oct 20, 2013
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I have to strongly disagree with the premise of this.

    Two things:

    (1) There's no evidence that efficiency as a rule (or in practice) goes down with pace

    (2) Even if that was the case, so what? Offensive efficiency is points scored per possession, by definition. It doesn't matter if the team plays in a manner with Beverley that makes it easier for them to score more efficiently.
     
    #185 durvasa, Oct 20, 2013
  6. larsv8

    larsv8 Member

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    So Lin fans basically used selective stats to argue that he was better alongside Harden and then peer review basically shows just the opposite. Was that the gist of the thread?
     
    #186 larsv8, Oct 20, 2013
  7. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    How can you just multiply the possessions per minute by the PPP?

    The team scores 1 point per possession and the team averages 2 possessions per minute with Lin.

    The team scores 2 points per possession and the team averages 1 possession per minute with Beverley.

    You can't just assume that they are both equal because they both score 2 points per minute. It's completely out of context.

    It says nothing about the quality of the possession, and it ignores the fact that the opponent would also be playing with more possessions.
     
    #187 flamingdts, Oct 20, 2013
  8. WinkFan

    WinkFan Member

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    If you use that logic, then his offensive numbers are worse because he's playing with backups.
     
    #188 WinkFan, Oct 20, 2013
  9. boiler

    boiler Member

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    His assist number may be worse with backups, but ppg should be better since he's the main guy leading backups.
     
    #189 boiler, Oct 20, 2013
  10. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    who's PPG? the team's, pbev's, or harden's?
     
    #190 vlaurelio, Oct 20, 2013
  11. steady

    steady Member

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    Durvasa, I probably overstated the point when I said "Efficiency is bound to go down, when pace picks up, the question is by how much."

    I agree that efficiency as a rule (or in practice) does not have to go down with pace. That's true.

    But I do think that looking at efficiency numbers, without looking at pace, m may give you an incomplete picture of how good a team's offense is. That is what I was trying to say. Not to take anything away from the importance of efficiency.
     
    #191 steady, Oct 20, 2013
  12. Exel

    Exel Member

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    Just to add a little more data and hopefully some more context into the Beverley and Lin comparisons, I ran a query on both players on the NBA stats web page looking at their contribution in the 4th quarter. Here's what I found:

    Score margin between teams: 0-10 points
    Player Min +/-
    Beverley 142 0
    Lin 332 17
    Harden 428 33

    Score margin between team: 11+ points
    Player Min +/-
    Beverley 145 48
    Lin 188 5
    Harden 164 74

    Normally, when the score differential in the fourth is +11 points you can consider it a blowout and thus have the bench of both teams playing. While when score differential of less than 10 points, the game would generally be consider in contention and both teams are still competing to try and win.

    I was quite surprised at the results. Harden and Lin are good in the 4th for tight games. And Harden and Beverley are really good in the 4th during blow outs.

    Query for Beverley

    Query for Lin

    Query for Harden
     
    #192 Exel, Oct 20, 2013
  13. JustAGuy

    JustAGuy Member

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    Lin on how his game is different from Beverley's:

    http://www.csnhouston.com/video_content_type/lin-how-his-game-different-beverleys

    "He's an unbelievable defensive player, he has a lot of intangibles, he's everywhere. He just impacts the game in so many different ways, offensive rebounds, steals, deflections, being in the right place, he's a great shooter, and for me I'm more of an attacking, not that he isn't attacking, but, I don't know how to say it, I guess like playmaking and aggressive ball in my hand type player. We both bring really different strengths, and I think, We're going to end up playing together at the same time because we're so different..."

    When you are together, you seem to be feeding off each other well, is it because of those difference, are you learning from each other:
    "He watches me, I watch him we learn from each other and when we play together it's really natural...I'll be able to playmake he'll be able to distribute, he hits open threes, he'll still be able to drive to the basket, attack closeouts, and defensively we both like to get steals and be aggressive so we can exchange. He takes the point guard, He gets tired, I take the point guard, so we can mix and match and it gets fun"
     
    #193 JustAGuy, Oct 20, 2013
  14. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    with the addition of D12, mchale is experimenting with various rotations this preseason

    then it can be analyzed whichever rotation gives the most point differential

    the bigger the point differential, the easier and the more rest of our best players
     
    #194 vlaurelio, Oct 20, 2013
  15. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    Harden can easily say this too about PBEV
     
    #195 vlaurelio, Oct 20, 2013
  16. JustAGuy

    JustAGuy Member

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    Given the objection to Lin and Harden together is overlapping skill sets, I'd expect so. The three of them together for small ball will be fun to watch.
     
    #196 JustAGuy, Oct 20, 2013
  17. Pumpedupkicks

    Pumpedupkicks Member

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    Right. Sounds like Lin's repeating what McHale might have conveyed to his 2 "starting" PGs, that they'll be going small ball a bit, I hope. I personally would love to hear how Beverley would answer this question too, regarding differences in game and how they complement each other's playing style.
     
    #197 Pumpedupkicks, Oct 20, 2013
  18. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    yeah those 3 should be ending games.. but it also makes sense to see JLin leading the attack and playmaking for the 2nd unit
     
    #198 vlaurelio, Oct 20, 2013
  19. joegoroxy

    joegoroxy Member

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    [​IMG]

    lets see who plays better with Howard in a couple of regular season games before we start trying to figure out which point guard should be the starter
     
    #199 joegoroxy, Oct 20, 2013
  20. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    Agree with you that the sample size was limited, thus we could only try to be as balance as possible. However, surprised that you dislike the way I split the data (which pretty much just include everything I could get when Beverley is in game), yet you go ahead split the data in a more manipulative way. To be honest, you don't really need to work this hard to look for data to support your view, Durvasa did that for you in a much more convincing way, by simply split the data to March-April. And J. Harden's PPP with Beverley is way higher than that with Jeremy. As I said before, one could always find data or certain split to support your idea, but it is more important to see whether the conclusion drawn is sound or not.

    Data is tool, analysis is the main point.

    Okay, that said, I think your analysis and numbers is still useful, and let's read them carefully.

    when Lin on court, all the eFG, TS, FG%, %A (percent assisted) are all higher than those numbers when Beverley is on court. This trend has shown up multiple times, regardless how you look at it, how you split the data, and which line up you are looking at. As I shown in my previous analysis with team members performance with Beverley or Jeremy on off court. It is pretty general trend.

    And yet, you could see that this line up have higher PPP with Beverley on court than when Jeremy on court. Why is that? And what does it mean?

    That was the part I missed in my first analysis, and Durvasa kindly pointed out. The offense have three kinds of ways of gaining points, 2pts, 3pts and free throws. FG% and eFG% 3pt% are all numbers related to normal shooting in game, which was affected by the line up on the floor, your teammates, and game plan. However, there is one high percentage shots not reflected by these numbers, and that was not affected by whom you are playing with, that is the FTs.

    I've shown before, when James playing with Beverley, his FTA/FGA rate jumped from 0.5 when he is playing with Jeremy to 0.97 when he is playing with Beverley, that's almost doubled!!! So, James goes to the line much more frequently, that's how the team get more points there.

    Also, when James playing with Beverley, only 30% of his 3pt shot was assisted, yet 50% of his 3pt shot was assisted when he was playing with Jeremy. So think about in what kind of situation you shot an unassisted 3pt? Yes, when you play ISO.

    So basically, when playing with Beverley, James shot more unassisted 3s, goes to the line more, together with higher USG%, and even the team have lower FG%, 3pt% in shooting, they still got more PPP.

    As the title of the thread, we are discussing who fit with the team and James Harden is our topic, not just who is better.

    So both my numbers, and your numbers are all pointing to a conclusion that I'd like to draw:

    Jeremy fits better with the team offensively by helping the team's FG%, eFG%, 3pt% etc using his play making strength. He does make James's game easier by elevating his shooting percentage, but also decreased James USG, and decreased James ISO play.

    On the other hand, Beverley might not fit with the team offensively (have to emphasis on this, it is not I ignore his defensive strength, it is just that part does not impact what I'm discussing here), as well as Jeremy, which is shown by decreased teammate's FG% etc. However, he fits with James Harden's style of games, that is, when play with him, James Harden is able to have superhigh USG (38%), and have ball in his hand all the time, go to the line much more often, shot threes. Even James' eFG% dropped, he could well make it up by go to the line, and he could even make up the dropped eFG% of the teammates on the floor. And obviously, that's a comfortable play style to James, as he goes to that way a lot.

    I'm sure, either way, the team could win some games, it is more about which style the team should go with.
     
    #200 TTNN, Oct 20, 2013
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