Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

well done. now if you could merge it to the original post or have the mods do it.
in your analysis for every 100 possessions with PB on court, Rox lost 11 points in the offensive end, does the team get it covered on defensive end because PB's defense? do we got a net gain in the end?

 

Jeremy Lin FG%:

With Bev: 56.3
Without Bev: 44.5

I think they should play more together, essentially a three man rotation at the guards and a few minutes each game all three could play together with Harden at SF.

 

I used the website you mentioned and looked up the data. I wasn't a fan of the split/criteria you used.

1) The beginning date is wrong (Harden didn't injure himself on the 1st). Also I don't understand the reasoning behind the ending date you chose.

2) Beverley's data is misleading to the topic we are discussing. You need to place him among the starters since that's what we're discussing. A large part of the argument that we should start Beverley is centered around the fact that we can hide his weakness as a playmaker by playing him alongside our best players. That way we can utilize his strengths as a defender while hiding his weaknesses. You didn't isolate the data for that. We know he's not capable of being the sole playmaker in a lineup. He's cut from a different cloth compared to PGs like Lin, Dragic, etc who can create decent offenses individually(which is the reason we're saying Lin should be playing with our bench in the first place).

3) I don't see why including lineups with both Lin/Bev on is relevant.

Harden injured himself in the GSW game on February 12th, 2013. So the split I thought be most fair to use would be, for Jeremy Lin, from 2/13 to 4/22, after which Lin was injured. For Beverley, I used 2/13 to 5/04. The line up I used consisted of when Harden, Parsons, Asik, and the interchanging Lin/Beverley shared the floor.

The PPP for the lineup including Beverley was higher.






Beverley, when his inability to be the sole playmaker is hidden among the starters, is a better choice on offense. There is lower turnover rate, 12.8 compared to 14.7, and a higher PPP.

The other thing that's important to mention is that you're ignoring Beverley's strengths with this whole discussion. The defense also benefits, the opponent has a lower PPP when Beverley is playing with the starters.

 

I've been tough on Lin, but, it's a new season. I'm giving everybody a fresh start. If he starts I'll support him. If Bev starts I'll do the same.

As far as a better fit alongside Harden, they're pretty much equal. I think the ultimate answer is we need a guy that can play on both ends of the floor. Hopefully one of the two can progress in to that player this season. Both have earned a shot at it.

 

Ultimately I don't think there is enough data to go off of. Plus Dwight changes everything.

We'll get a better idea as the season progresses since there will definitely be a lot of experimenting going on.

 

With DH 12 coming on board, we should really looking forward who fits better with him. Another issue is, who plays better with Parson.

 

Just want to point out half the analysis is redundant because of the amount of time PB and Lin plays together is very small. ie the PB vs Lin are almost 100% negatively correlated. That said, it does not take away from the analysis. Perhaps we should only look at the players that share rough the same amount of time with both - eg Delfino, Smith and Garcia - those that tend to play with both the starters and the bench equally. This will negate some of the noise of Lin playing aginst mostly starters and PB playing against mostly scrubs.

 

To optimize Harden's power doesn't mean that the team will get better.
To increase the team's offense it is important to know your weapons and to combine them, so you have this offense-power all the time

Obviously, Harden can carry the team's offense alone for a certain time, not for the whole game!

So in this time, I would put Beverly & Asik on the court and let Lin & Howard rest. Another offensive piece like CP or Casspi/Garcia and the offense is set. The defense is there, too, because of Asik & Beverly.

During Harden's rest let J-Lin & Howard do their PnR-stuff. With CP & Casspi/Garcia you can expect great production even without Harden.

 

This is a great piece of info. The above stats in this post present a strong argument and there does not seem to be a obvious fault, except that it did not compise the entire number of beverley's minutes.

 

way to go TTNN. keep up the good work.

 

Interesting that the lineup w/ Lin has a higher TS% but the lineup with Bev has a higher PPP. This leads me to believe that the lineup lineup w/ Lin tends to turn the ball over a lot more.

 

Turnovers and offensive rebounding is better with Beverley. TS% tells only part of the story.

 

yes also the line up with Bev causes more opp turnovers

FG% took a dip with the lineup w\ bev because the opp fouled more. its probably because the line up with bev was more aggressive defensively and offensively (faster pace, more opp turnovers,more fastebreaks) which caused the opp to be more aggressive defensively as well which lead to them fouling more

 

can you get information on fastbreaks and FG%/turnovers/fouls commited by opp team?

 

Seems like Beverly playing with the 2nd rotation would account for team decrease in stats.

 

If I were to speculate it would be different. I think the lineup with Bev is more aggressive defensively (pretty much bev himself though, not the lineup as a whole) and less aggressive offensively, but turns the ball over a lot less (basically hitting singles), while the lineup w/ Lin is more aggressive offensively, hence the higher TS%, but turns the ball over more. (high risk, high reward, hitting homeruns)

 

This.

Jeremy is a homerun hitter....maybe be not other's cup of tea but very exciting to watch...love it

http://youtu.be/2hQjIfPdHNQ

 

As a couple of posters have mentioned, we have a 9 page Beverley vs Lin thread with no discussion of defense, so I thought I'd throw a little bit out there.

These are opponent stats from 1/15 to the end of the regular season.

Code:

                   FG%    3PT%   eFG%   TS   PPP
Lin on/Bev off     46.1   38.8   51.0  54.8  1.091
Bev on/Lin off     42.3   33.2   46.8  51.8  1.024

Basically, the defense was significantly better with Beverley on the court.

If you isolate the minutes played with Harden,

Code:

                           FG%  3PT%  eFG%   TS    PPP
Lin, Harden on/  Bev off  46.7  38.6  51.4  55.2  1.100
Bev, Harden on/  Lin off  43.0  30.4  46.8  52.9  1.061

The defense is still better with Beverley, although the PPP difference is significantly smaller.

The bottom line is that the entire discussion of who's a better fit is not useful if you ignore the defensive end.

 

I'd agree, except it is so hard to say with Lin playing most of his minutes with the starters and Bev mostly with the bench. If we have a 3 guard rotation this year, with Bev and Lin both getting around 30 minutes as some have speculated, we'll probably get some real data on the subject (i.e. playing with the same players and against the same players...about as gold standard as you can manage).

 

all stats can be seen as flawed. the reason the turnovers are up when lin is in is because harden finds himself as the most t.o proned player in the lineup. If harden took himself out of the line up, replaced by bev, the turnovers would also be down

It all comes down to what the funny little man, who wears the funny suits and happens to know a tad bit about the game, 'let the pg play the pg.' Harden would be a better fit for harden as he would be more efficient. He can still have pg duties during clutch situations.

Defensively, the scoring cross dressing pgs are still going to score on Bev like they do on Lin, like parker does on westbrook like westbrook does on curry, like curry does on irving. However, Bev won't be able to counter by having 20 pt games. Lin played his best ball against the top pgs, splitting games. not bad for a first time starter.

The best fit would be for Linderella to get 11 minutes in the magic pumpkin by himself, whether that comes from Off the bench or a coach that understands substitutions. So I guess Off the bench it will be=)

I'd be a little more worried about the PF spot. Our Guard rotation is pretty deep and scary great.