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Jeremy Lin and Beverley, who fits better with the team and James Harden

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by TTNN, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    Oh my god... I think we're all up to here with the Lin fans flooding this board with their opinions.
     
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  2. hardenisaboss

    hardenisaboss Member

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    this is a Rockets forum though, not a random sports forum
     
  3. Phillycheese

    Phillycheese Member

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    Yet you choose one players name as your handle. hmmm. pot meet kettle
     
  4. Phillycheese

    Phillycheese Member

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    At least the thread has analytical support, you can argue the numbers but why bring in the person bringing forth the numbers. Is it because you can't understand the numbers? therefore having to resort to attacking the messenger? Lin fans and Howard fans and Harden fans , etc are going to flood the forum. Deal with it or not, up to you. Complaining aint stopping the flow anytime soon. Lament the good ole days all you want but times are a changin.
     
  5. Lucky Charm

    Lucky Charm Member

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    You guys are this close to ruining TTNN's post, can you please NOT? [​IMG]

    Mother of God, both sides are so annoying.

    -The cranky old vets hitting menopause who gain some sort of self-worth by reminding everyone of their pre-Lin join date. Why can't you set the example by either not taking the bait or instigating more crap? You can also report rude overzealous behavior which Im sure the mod crew will take care of.
    You joining in to the mess and going full potato just stirs up the pot more.

    -My fellow Lin fans that act like the team should be built around him and if not he should request a trade to the Miami Heat, where Lebron should, of course, let Jeremy have the ball otherwise his stats won't look pretty. Listen, Im not Asian but being hispanic, I can understand why watching one of your own succeed feels so important.
    But can you see how your Jeremy-centric enthusiasm can be a bit overwhelming for true Rockets fans that have been here years? I mean...you gotta be aware of it.

    When things start going off topic, Mod Crew should really move the nonsense to some "subforum of shame" cuz this is spreading to literally every post [​IMG]
    /rant

    That said, TTNN your post is great. Finally some to the point charts I understand :p
     
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  6. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    Like you, I wasn't born in TX, and I don't live in TX now. Unlike you, I like the Rox more than any other team in all of sports. And, unlike you, I and many posters here will remember Patrick Beverley 5-10 years from now, just like we remember Moochie Norris, Bobby Sura, etc.

    This board is called "Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves." "Houston Rockets" means a team, and "Roster" signifies fifteen players. Sure, Clutch seems to let just about everyone participate here. But the most appropriate posts consider the team and the roster, if only implicitly.

    The board really seems to have got worse since Lin got here. There's no "ONLY LIKES ONE PLAYER" flag on posts: you have to read through a post to find out where the poster is coming from. This thread alone has over 100 posts. Reading them takes time, and when a lot of them come from part-time fans, the experience gets worse.

    I notice I seem to spend a lot more time trying to zap bad posts now, as if I could clean up the board and restore it to how it used to be. But I can't. And I do feel the board is worse since LOF's got here. The only solution is either to quit the board, which I don't want to do, or start assembling a long "Ignore" list, which is what I have undertaken.

    I'm interested to see if you have a response, so I'll wait, but it's perfectly fine with me if we just choose to put each other on "ignore." And it's not a strike at you: I encourage you to do the same to me if you like. I just want to improve my experience of the board somehow. And maybe you will enjoy the board more if you ignore non-LOF's like me.
     
  7. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    What? I wasn't even referring to the OP however his numbers don't mean what he thinks they mean. He's isolating the performance of one player on another without any measure for the other players on the floor or measuring defense at all. Other than that it was good work I suppose.

    I definitely lament the days when people posting here were actual Rockets fans and not the basketball version of Justin Bieber fanatics.
     
  8. langal

    langal Member

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    I wouldn't disparage the OP here at all. He was merely using stats to analyze the validity of the "Bev is better fit with Harden so he should start" theory or the "stagger Lin and Harden" theory. Those are 2 pretty popular ongoing topics. His stats do seem to provide evidence that Harden has to work harder without Lin which would seem to make "basketball" sense. General concensus is that Lin is a better playmaker than Bev. The overall effect on the team, however, is arguable.
     
  9. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    it actually proved Harden's FG% dropped after he was injured
     
  10. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    The numbers did show Harden's usage rate was significantly higher playing with Beverley than with Lin. That's not disputable and has nothing to do with anybody's injury. In fact, it might even point to a damning phenomenon that Harden had to work harder even when he was injured because they played Beverley more.

    A lot of good counter arguments against the OP's analysis. But at least it was a well researched and well thought out post and has generated some meaningful discussions.
     
  11. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    when was Harden injured and when did Beverly start playing significant minutes?
     
  12. Patterned919

    Patterned919 Member

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    OP, you're contradicting yourself here. Harden injured himself around the all star game, which was mid February. You admit most of the minutes from your analysis of Beverley happened after Feb.

    So you're admitting a bulk of Beverley's minutes happened after Harden was injured in the second half of the season. So how is it the same in both cases?
     
  13. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    A better fit for the starting unit isn't measured by one player. Second, fit includes defense. Third, how can you assume the difference in offense is solely attributable to Lin and Beverly? What about the other three players on the floor? They have a significant bearing on stats and fit.

    And I don't care who starts. I'm for whatever is best for the team. The fact that there are people so upset that Lin may come off the bench is nuts.
     
  14. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    Wow, impressed with the way this thread has gone off track.

    Okay, got criticized with the numbers, as the filters could be better set. Argument is that James was hurt in Feb, thus his numbers with Jeremy was screwed with healthy good numbers, and with Beverley might reflect his injury form. (And we could and should totally ignore Jeremy's coming off a surgery at the beginning of the season, and his totally disappear in the playoff. Don't you love the diversity here in CF?).

    Anyway, point is taken, and thanks Durvasa introduced me to a new site, where the filter could be easily set, so, this time I pulled out more data to see how fit Beverley and Jeremy is to the team.

    This time data are from nbawowy.com

    And, I used data from Feb 1 to April 17th, 2013 range for both Jeremy and Beverley, so that we are looking at the same time range of games played by all Beverley and Jeremy and James.

    Let's look at the team individual player performance with Beverley on and off the court.

    [​IMG]

    POSS: possession during the time, should be the possession the team holds during the time the play is playing with or without Beverley.

    FG%, eFG% and 3p% is self explanatory, AST% indicated the percentage of shot was assisted, and PPP indicated the points earned per possession, which is pretty much the reflection of a player's efficiency in earning points.

    Highlighted columns are when Beverley is on court with said players, and not high lighted columns are numbers from when Beverley is off the court.

    Team average is just the average of these players, I did removed player have very little play time, or not on the team any more, I did keep Delfino since he played good time with and without Beverley and he is one of the major rotation player last season. I also removed some people's 3 pt number due to too small sample size, like Asik's and TJ's. Their 0% or 100% 3pt shooting throw out the team average calculation.

    Okay, first of all, for James Harden, when he is playing with Patrick Beverley, his FG%, eFG% and 3p% were all significantly lower when Beverley is on the court. And yes, double checked the filter, and data are only from Feb 1 till the end of regular season. So, hurt as James was, he was still able to get 45% of 3P shooting when Beverley is off the court. :grin: And that is dropped to 35%, a good 10% drop there. Oh, BTW, I should also mention that when Beverley is off the court, 50% of James's 3pt is assisted, and that number dropped to 35% when he was sharing the backcourt with Beverley.

    Interestingly, that drop of FG%, eFG% and 3p% was not only happened to James Harden, pretty much everyone playing with Beverley is seeing that drop. And most significant drop is 3pt shooting across the board, average a 10% drop. Please note that last season, almost 60% of Beverley's assist were 3 pt shots, he likes to distribute the ball behind the arc, yet, the team is shooting 3pt with lower successful rate.

    For the 3pt shooting, Parsons was the one has least impact by Beverley, only 5% drop, other shooters like Delfino, Garcia, Jeremy all got a hit, so look it this way, it is better for James to shoot threes, since though he shoot less accurate than he could be, he is still better than those guys with under 30% ;)

    Jeremy is the only one somehow benefit with playing together with Beverley. Though his 3pt got a hit, his total FG% is much better, actually not in this table, but Jeremy's 2pt% increased from 46% to 64%! However, only 30% of those shots were assisted, so not much help by Beverley there. Maybe just because Jeremy become more aggressive when playing with Beverley.

    Oh, BTW, for PPP number, James got pretty similar numbers with or without Beverley on the floor, but we already know Durvasa found a Feb split that make it look opposit from here, that by splitting that way, James acturally got higher PPP when play along side with Beverley.

    So maybe Durvasa or somebody else could find other specific splits to make the whole team looks that way if we could pick a subset of data from here. :grin:

    As Morey said, and I have quoted multiple times, Beverley is a good player, "starter caliber", "there is not much drop off when he was running the offense". With James take over the game when he and Beverley is playing together, the offense is not a problem, and even with a bit lower FG% or eFG%, Beverley was still able to obtain a good +/-, I think , on top of James switch to a beast mode, Beverley's defense must have some effect there. Unfortunately, there is no good parameters reflect defense well, offensive board obviously is one of Beverley's strength there.

    Now take a look of Jeremy's on/off chart, and see his impact to the team.

    [​IMG]

    okay, across the board, FG%, eFG%, 3p% were all better when Jeremy is on the floor. Only exception is Beverley, he works better without Jeremy on the floor. And James Harden also works better with Jeremy on the floor.

    Well, I will leave the conclusion to the reader.

    No data could cover everything, or represent every situation, but if a general trend is seen, and it applies to most of the player on the floor, that trend is most likely real.
     
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  15. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    addressed that in the newer analysis...... trend remains..... so the same conclusion.
     
  16. Patterned919

    Patterned919 Member

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    Sure, but isn't that more of a discussion of the past now that:

    1) We have Dwight: Sure, when he and Lin were the only shot creators, he needed that outlet where he could take breaks when he was exhausted. This isn't the case anymore. Harden and Lin controlled most of the possessions last year. This year, it'll be Harden and Dwight controlling most of the possessions. So whether the numbers are reliable or not, this fact changes the entire nature of the argument and conclusion, does it not?

    2) The fact that Harden isn't perpetually injured? You said he has a higher usage rate with Beverley and that he was forced to do more even injured. Sure, this is a bad thing when he's injured. But lets introduce the case in which he's not injured and has a higher usage rate. The minutes he played with Toney Douglas he had a higher usage rate plus significant improvements in his numbers. So yeah, if he's injured and asked to do more, naturally that's going to hurt him and cause him to perform below average. If he's not injured and asked to do more, that just gives him more opportunities and actually helps his numbers. Since he's not perpetually injured, I don't see why we should construct our starting lineup under the assumption that he'll be injured?
     
  17. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    Does that also mean Lin's stats at the beginning of the season should be thrown out?
     
  18. DXtreme

    DXtreme Member

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    So when you see a thread that has "Lin" in the title...
    1. I know 90% Rocket fans would click.
    2. I know 100% clutch crew would click.
    3. I know 150% Lin fans would click.
    4. I know 200% trolls would click.

    We all know what's gonna happen and who's gonna show up in these threads, I bet in the next thread topic with "Lin" in it, I can predict which poster says what!
     
  19. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    are you in group 4?
     
  20. KlutchQT

    KlutchQT Member

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    I personally applaud kumakun for admitting that he doesn't give a damn about the Rockets and only cares about Jeremy -- it's what a lot of the guys who post here feel but will never admit, and I respect the transparency. Not even being sarcastic... I really do. Be up front in your bias. *shrug*
     

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