After a disaster 1st half from Minnesota (which will probably happen): Rockets In: Kevin Love Rockets Out: Asik, TJones, DMo, 2 #1 picks, Rights to Papanikolaou GSW In: Asik, JJ Barea, TJones GSW Out: Bogut, Barnes MIN In: Bogut, Barnes, DMo, 2 #1 picks, Rights to Papnikolaou MIN Out: Love, JJ Barea Beverley / Lin / Canaan Harden / Brewer Parsons / Garcia Love / Casspi Howard / ?
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=kmg82xx Houston: IN: LOVE OUT: ASIK/TJONES/DMO MIAMI: IN: ASIK/TJONES/DWILLIAM OUT: BOSH MINI: IN BOSH/DMO OUT: LOVE/DWILLIAM Picks plus cash to make it actually happen.
Let's look at this by piece: Asik - Legit value here. Hurts to lose him, but what you gain is the best PF in the NBA. DMo - Developmental guy. Will not get any minutes with Love on the team. TJones - Developmental guy. Will not get any minutes with Love on the team. Papanikolaou - No idea if this guy translates and becomes a legit player in the NBA. 2 #1s - Earliest likely pick is #27. Think about it. Every single night you line up with the best SG, PF, and Center in the league. No other team has more than 1 of the best players at their position. The Rockets would have 3! PG and SF are also rock solid with Lin/Beverley and Parsons/Garcia. What are you willing to trade to have the best SG, the best PF, and the best Center all playing on the same team,and whose games all compliment each other perfectly?? To me......easily what I listed above. The holes created (backup Forward and Center) can be filled using the MLE. Beverley / Lin / Brooks Harden / Brewer Parsons / Garcia Love / Casspi Howard / ? Give me that all day.
I think you have a valid point about capturing three of the better players in the NBA at their respective positions. IMHO the team keeps either DMo or TJ. I posted this another thread earlier in the summer but I see a 3-way trade with MN, BOS, & HOU happening IF Minney falls flat early HOU (Out) Asik; D-Mo; 2014 1st; 2016 1st; 3 2nd round picks (NY, POR); rights to Papanikoalua HOU (In) Love; F/C Chris Johnson (shot blocking whiz kid) BOS (Out): 2014 Nets 1st; G/F Courtney Lee; F Kris Humphries BOS (In) Asik; F Derrick Williams MN (Out) Love; Derrick Williams MN (In) 3 1st round picks; 3 2nd round picks; D-Mo; Kris Humphries; Courtney Lee; rights to Papanikoalua
Here are the items that limit Omer Asik's value: - Cost. Asik makes $15 mil in 2014-15. That is a ton of money. He does only make $5 mil this season, but you have to factor in his price next season. He is properly paid at two years, $20 mil total, which is to say that he is neither an albatross nor a bargain. - He becomes unrestricted in summer 2015. This means that whoever acquires him only gets him for two years. You can re-sign him, but, barring injury, he will be an expensive re-sign. - Age. Asik is not a young guy who is "only going to get better." As a general rule, if you're 27, you're as good as you're going to get. Which, in Asik's case, is good, but not great. A team who acquires Asik is not getting a "franchise center." - The longer you wait to trade him, the less valuable he becomes. This is related to the first three points. A team that acquires him now gets him for two years, $20 mil. A team that gets him in February gets him for 1.5 years, $17-$18 mil. He is only going to get a) more expensive, b) older, and c) closer to unrestricted free agency over time. Also, keep in mind that everybody knows that Houston will not re-sign him in 2015. A team is not going to pay a guy $10+ mil/year to be a backup. This also limits Houston's bargaining power. Daryl Morey is aware of all of these things. I predict that he makes a clever trade (he always does) but that a majority of Rockets fans will complain that "we're not getting enough." I pointed out the other day that Morey traded for Harden on October 27, a day or two before final roster cuts were due. So there is recent precedent for a major deal occurring shortly before final cuts are to be made (and obviously shortly before the regular season begins). And there are the extremely rational reasons (listed above) to trade him sooner rather than later. I predict an imminent Asik trade, and I predict most Rockets fans will be puzzled (if not angered) by the trade. In other words, Houston ain't getting Kevin Love next week.
When saying Houston will not pay him 10mill to be BACKUP. It’s all going to depend on how successful the rockets are with Howard & injuries. Keep in mind Howard is only guaranteed to be with the rockets one year after Asik’s contract is up. Asik 2 more years Howard 3 more years (4th year he can leave or go back into free agency, this is the way him & his agent set up his contract) Harden 5 more years!!!!
For example: Omer Asik to Portland Robin Lopez and Portland's 2016 first round pick to Houston Lopez is a very good backup C and is owed $0 (rather than $15 mil) in 2014-15. Portland is pretty poorly managed so this will likely wind up being a lottery pick and thus an extremely valuable asset. Rockets fans will cry foul but this is an excellent trade.
By most definitions he's a SF, though I'll admit that the lines between SF and PF are getting blurred. Most of what he does still fits into the traditional SF role.
Disagree on a few of your points. I don't see an "imminent" trade. The teams with players we may have an interest in don't have much incentive to make a deal right now. Morey has already said that a few minutes of Asik is worth more than full minutes from a B-list PF (i.e. Ryan Anderson). I think we either get an all-star, or we hold Asik through the rest of his contract. I think the mentality of the franchise has change. We were in building mode a year ago.....now we are in competing mode. The 2015-2016 season is significantly less important today than the 2013-2014 or 2014-2015 seasons. If Asik helps you win now, but then leaves for nothing in 2015 FA, then you keep him unless someone else comes along that can help you win both now and in the future (Love, LMA, etc.). You are right that Asik's value drops as we get closer to 2015, but the same is true of Love and LMA. What the Rockets are counting on is for one of those teams to bottom out over the next 2 seasons, which is VERY likely. As far as true cost (not cap), some owners will care and others won't. My prediction is this....the Rockets are looking for a 3rd star. They do not believe that person is on the roster today. If that star is not acquired this year, Asik and Lin will not be traded and Parsons will not get his extension in 2014. Also, the Rockets will not use their MLE next year. Obviously, the preference is to get that 3rd star at this season's trade deadline. That way the Rockets can extend Parsons and use their MLE. But if the choice is between getting the 3rd star and taking the chance that Parsons leaves......you wait for the star.
I liked your first post, but this is a horrible follow-up. This is not an excellent trade. For one, even if Portland misses the playoffs, it's lotto pick ends up in the 10+ range. They will protect a top 3 pick. Even for a realyl deep draft, a 10+ lotto pick is a crapshoot. For two, I really actually like Lopez and would like him as abackup. But to trade Asik for that. No thanks. I'd rather just keep Asik. If cap space is that important, you should be able to move him for cap space later on (at the deadline, in the offseason)... but I don't think cap space is that important.
I wouldn't take DM at face value on anything he says, would you? I'm not saying he goes out and trades Asik for a B-list PF... but he might. especially if it's a B+ or better power forward.... but he might. When you consider this team is somewhat serious about starting Omri Casspi at PF, and how pathetic that is, having a legit B+ PF on this team is of course more important than a few minutes of Asik.
Our defense collapsed when Asik sat last year, and it will do the same this year when Howard sits if we don't have Asik. The marginal difference between Casspi and Ryan Anderson/Ersan Ilyasova is not a great as Asik and whoever would play center if he was traded.
Um, Casspi can be at best described as a below average player thus far into his career. Anderson/Ilyasova are clearly above average, B+ type talent. The idea that it is a marginal difference is laughable. Asik can't play the PF. Dwight can't play the PF. Dwight Howard needs to play 35 mpg, as he's done his whole career. 13 mpg for Asik is a luxury that isn't as important as shoring up a position where you really have nobody that fits well to play any of the 48 mpg at that spot. You have players that you can put in there, but that's not saying much. As I've said in other threads... yes, you'd like a lesser version of Asik to come in as a backup... kind of what one might have once hoped Greg Smith could turn into. But he won't be that. DM knows this is a weakness. This is why Asik hasn't been traded yet. This is why he took a shot at Camby, ancient as he is. I feel pretty sure that if DM was able to find a deal to land him both a legit B+ PF and a solid, 15 mpg true defender center off the bench, he'd pull the trigger.
Robin Lopez isn't anywhere near the defender asik is and we all know Morey can pull role players out of his ass, so I don't see why we would trade asik for rolo and a 1st. Not worth the loss of defense.
