Hey guys, several analysts seem to think opponents will kill us with the hack a Asik/D12 strategy - well let`s take a look at that. D12 shot 49% from the line last season, Asik 56%. So if their percentage stays the same, we would average about 1 point per posession in theory. The league average of points per posession is 1.05 - so basically identical to the number we would get. And several players up their percentage, when they shoot more free throws in a row... But that`s not all. This strategy gets the other team in foul trouble and us in the bonus earlier - that is huge for a team with Harden, Lin and Parsons, who tend to drive a lot. Since they shoot 85%, 79% and 73% we average a lot more points per posession, when they go to the line for touch fouls... And don`t forget - there is a rebound after a free throw, so there is at least the potential that the posession isn`t over after the free throws... Sounds good - so why do other teams do it? Usually it has one of three reasons: 1. Get into a players head - some guys get worse at the line when they know, the other team wants them there. It is a mind game. 2. Disrupt the other teams offense. No touches for the other guys, no rhythm, this could spark a come back. 3. They are desperately behind and need to do something. The hack tactic only works in a few situations, and if our guys have the mental strength it usually can`t work. We might lose a game or two because of this tactic, but we will also win several games because of this tactic. Some statistics with Dwight: on January 12 20012 the GSW hacked Dwight throughout the game - he made 21 of 39 and Orlando won the game 117-109. Next year Orlando hacked the Lakers Dwight - he made 25 of 39 free throws and the Lakers won 106-97... Overall you could say: it is a last resort for the other team. If they need to use it, we are in good shape. And if Asik and D12 get mentally prepared for it, we shouldn´t have a problem.
The hacking situation works wonders in late close game situations, that's why people do it. Also Rockets offensive capability is way higher then league average.
This was definitely the case last year when Brooks tried Hack-Asik. Asik's FT% had higher expected points per possession than our offense as I recall. It might be slightly tipped the other way this year though if our offense improves and Howard shoots under 50%.
That`s right, last season the Rockets had 1.19 points per posession - if they can reproduce that, we would average less points per trip to the line of D12, and about the same when Asik shoots (he would need to get his % up 3 points to 59%). But keep in mind that at the same time we get into the bonus situations a lot earlier, so more free throws for Harden, Lin, Asik... and that means more points per posession for them. About the late game - remember that you can`t use the hack tactic inside the last two minutes of a quarter.
