[GRANTLAND] Schaub Story

Who said devalue? Did I not readily say that Kubiak's biggest problem is scoring %?

If an offense puts up points, but can't hold onto the ball for any length of time, and frequently turns the ball over, how good is it really?

 

LOL

You yourself said that alone was enough to discount them as great.

Whatever, enough of this. Just because I'm not grabbing my pitch fork and burning Kubiak's house down, people gotta b**** and moan. Carry on with the lynch mob. Maybe our next coach will be better on offense

 

Yes. I don't know what reading of that would give you 'there are no other considerations'. But yes, not being able to actually convert points stops you from being a 'great offense'.

Typical. I imagine when you are busy shaking pom poms it must seem like everyone else is carrying pitchforks.

 

There's a bunch of different ways to talk about points. Points per game? Points per drive? Redzone/Scoring %?

The main problem for Kubiak has been the redzone.

Points per drive:

2012 - 10th
2011 - 10th
2010 - 4th
2009 - 11th
2008 - 11th

So, that's an average 9th place. Just a hair outside of the top 25%.

Mind you, Kubiak's offenses are typically top 5 in yards, TOP, and turnovers.

Factoring all these things together,I have no problem calling Kubiak's offense, on the whole, great. Although obviously the last 7-8 games it has been terrible. But we're judging 5-6 years here, not a handful of games.

I make a pretty accurate statement about Kubiak's offense that suggests it doesn't blow goats, and people jump down my throat. Firing Kubiak because Schaub has gone full r****d is just astoundingly short-sighted.

 

Matt Scrub trending on Yahoo! right now for all the wrong reasons.

 

I don't think anyone tried to say Kubiak's offense 'blows goats', just disagreed with calling them 'great'. There's a difference. I certainly wasn't advocating Kubiak's offenses as terrible nor torching his career in response to your post.

 

I just read that article and couldn't agree more. Usually teams "self scout" during the bye week, but I think it is imperative that Gary goes to Wade or someone on the defensive staff and say, "take a look at our film and see if we're tipping our plays." The Texans have got to do something to get teams off of their tendencies. Maybe a double move if DBs are jumping the routes. I really, really, really miss the days when Kyle Shanahan was involved in developing our pass game. Guys were running wide open (with lesser talent). Now, Schaub is having to throw into tight windows and he doesn't have the arm to get that done. He's rattled and missing open throws, they've got to make it easier for him by changing things up.

 

Did you even read my post? Or did you just see my name and write your own post in your head? Because if you *had* read it, you'd know that I said Schaub is playing like a "five-year old girl" and used "meaningless stats" to detail at least one aspect of his game that has completly fallen off a cliff (his YPA, which is down a full yard+ since the Monday night game against the Patriots last year, which is absolutely terrible.)

Kubiak has his issues... but I think the bulk of them are tied to his QB right now, and probably more so previously that I realized/recognized/understood. Generally speaking, though, when his QB is executing, this offense moves up and down the field. This notion that the NFL knows what's coming and has figured it out... that's on Schaub.

 

Schaub's not the one calling the plays or designing the route concepts. As Kubiak likes to say, that's on him. If Schaub is telegraphing his throws, that's one thing, but it looks like the defense is squatting on and/or jumping routes. To me, that speaks more to design than execution.

 

Kubiak calls the plays but he doesn't tell Schaub who to throw it to. It's Schaub's job to go through his reads and throw to the open man.

 

I acknowledged that, but if Schaub is reading hot (based on the pre-snap read) and the defense knows where he'll go (based on film study), it makes it easier for them to jump routes.

 

Matty Bites doesn't usually go through his progressions. Most of the time he'll decide who to throw to based on the look he gets at the line of scrimmage. That's why most of his picks are coming from post snap defensive movement. Just like the DT dropping and the off Corner jumping the inside route.

 

one more thing, based on post game comments and the press conference both Matty Bites and Kubes said Andre was the right read based on pre-snap coverage.

How neither, after so many years in the league, can realize Defenses are BAITING them is so hilarious.

Defenses are showing 2 deep safety look which tells Matty Bites and Kubes to look underneath. The problem is they are only showing 2 deep not in fear but in manipulation that you will react like they want you to and always go underneath. The underneath man corners know this so they jump routes. Why this works is because we are manipulated into an area and unfortunately Matty Bites doesn't have the arm to zip those short and flat routes.

That is how you become the all time leader in consecutive pick sixes in 4 games.

 

If only there was a way to look these things up so that we didn't have to assume... oh, yeah, there is... They ranked sixth in scoring among 2012 playoff teams, finishing ahead of the Ravens and 49ers.

And the reason scoring ranking is relatively arbitrary and, as a standalone statistic, somewhat meaningless (especially considering only four teams have won more games than the Texans between 2011-12, which means they must be scoring plenty enough): they finished 3 points behind the Falcons; 17 points behind the Packers; and 20 points behind Washington (who finished behind New Orleans, who didn't make the playoffs). Are you really going to argue that Washington - who won two fewer games than the Texans - was significantly better offensively than the Texans because they scored 1.25 more points a game?

In 2011, BTW, they were on pace, pre-Schaub injury, to finish fifth overall in scoring. In 2010, when their defense stopped and/or turned no one over and the Texans routinely had long fields to drive because the vast majority of their series started after kick-offs, they finished ninth, a mere four points behind Dallas/New York. In 2009, 10th despite finishing 30th in rushing.

His system works. They move the chains, they score points... when the QB is competent.

 

The reason I cited his dramatic decrease in YPA was to spotlight how often he's checking down. Watch the coaches' film; Kubiak is not designing plays to gain 2-4 yards - those are plan C routes, a safety valve to gain positive yardage if a team has the intermediate and deeper routes - this sytem's bread and butter - covered. Unfortunately, because Schaub is mentally Skittles right now, he's defaulting to that safe, easy safety valve and teams are jumping on it. They're not afraid that he'll throw it deep because everyone in the league is aware he's *not* throwing it deep. Schaub is playing like a frightened QB and the word is out.

 

Hey Now is clinging for dear life to the last hung on the ladder. A rung that can't even look when his kicker is trying field goals.

 

I think ipaman is on the right track with his post (sadly, I don't have access to the coaches film):

Yesterday, Barry Warner asked Kubiak during the presser why they didn't go deep on that initial 3rd down play since the CBs are now jumping the routes (I'm personally in favor of a double move rather than just a jump ball deep), and Gary's response was telling,

Putting things together in context (the Doug Farrar article, what we're seeing during the game, what the team (Kubiak/Schaub/AJ) is saying after the game, the defense is showing one thing pre-snap which causes the Texans offense to adjust, and the defense knows what the adjustment is and can jump the route.

The bottom line is that teams are apparently able to dictate where the ball is going and thus have an advantage on getting there to break-up or intercept the pass.

 

Every game is sold out. Don't think they care what the fans think, they have our money.

And sorry, no excuse for walking out on your team only down 8pts. We were down more than 8 in our first game and came back. It was all about beating traffic with those folks. Hate fake fans like that.

 

Would you watch Randy Bullock kick a FG? I'm not clinging to a single thing - this "I win the internet!" stuff is so tiresome and meaningless. The system ran up nearly 400 yards in a half against the Seahawks 10 days ago - did they, and the rest of the NFL, crack the code at halftime? Schaub is the problem; not Kubiak. Give him a better QB and this system would, as it has every year since 2008, hum.