How Many Shots are Available to the Rockets Starting Power Forward?

Does this mean 5-6 shots in the 33 minutes played with the starters, or 5-6 shots total?

Also, and I think this was mentioned above, it appears that you're defining a "shot" as a field goal attempt. How does this analysis change when you factor into free throw attempts? Typically, a "true shot" is approximated as FGA + 0.44*FTA, by the way.

 

For the sake of discussion, what would happen to those numbers if JLin came off the bench?

 

I agree with several of the posters who say that a younger Battier would be ideal: a smart player, who understands positioning both on offense and defense, an excellent defender, who understands how to play off the ball, and who can hit the open three. In terms of the ideal candidate, however, that last bit is important. By being able to hit the open three, he will be defended at the arc and will give other players room to work and thus a higher true shooting %. Being a good passer would be nice too.

Among D-Mo, Casspi, Jones, and Smith, I think we can rule out Smith. I'm not sure a clear choice emerges among the other three, however.

 

Agreed that with the given information it appears a PF would have 5-6 shots available and in normal circumstances a star player may be unhappy with this situation or even unfit for it.

But, you must take into account that a)Lin and/or Parsons will almost certainly be included in any trade for a third star, b) a multi-star situation may lead to increased defensive awareness on the part of the stars (due to the inherent motivation of being on a championship caliber team), and c) stars value shot attempts less when they feel they're going to a player of equal or lesser value in a winning situation.

 

Can't have Battier at PF long term.... Rob Horry would be better there

 

So who out there has Gasol's passing skills, Battier's team defense, and Novak's three point shooting???

 

IDK how much time you would give him but Jones' vastly superior on the ball player than off the ball does not make him terrible.
I would say at least he has to gain more experience.
Playing off the ball is not the hardest thing to learn and can be acquired through intensive training.
Again depending of how much time you would give him to develop and how much PT you would let him play.

 

*depending on how much time you would give him to develop and how much PT will be there.

 

I don't want a star PF if it risk losing asik. Imagine last year starting 5 interior defense, but for 48 minutes. Oh, my, god

 

I have found that not to be true at all - some players need the ball to be effective, others can play off of it well, and others are able to go between both.

TJones doesn't move off the ball all that well, doesn't seem to get the concept of playing without it, and generally needs the ball to be effective.

When you are the 5th option that is not going to be happening - and usually leads to crowding or lack of spacing and chemistry issues.

I am not saying TJones can't learn it, but almost all of his contributions are on the ball ones - where he is initiating something, our starting PF will not have that luxury, they need to be complimentary in nature.

And while DMo is flawed - he is vastly superior at that and will probably be our starter because of it.

That being said, I expect TJones and Dmo to split minutes most of the year unless one emerges.

DD

 

Normally I don't quibble with your posts, but you're laying it on a bit thick with "This post is intended to be instructional as to how to use arithmetic and information readily available from the web," so let me contribute to the schooling. . . .

1. Your FGA is suspect, because
a) the Rockets had a different roster last season (Delfino, Patterson and Asik all over 9 FGA);
b) Howard was on the Lakers with some high-FGA guys (Kobe 20.4);
c) the Rockets claim they will be more defensively oriented this season, which slows down the game;
d) your claim that "Howard [. . .] will likely eat up 3 of those shots" has no basis in arithmetic or information available on the web. Drawing in a third team in a third year with a fourth roster (Orlando, Lakers and 2 Rox) does not help the arithmetic.

2. Your figure of 33 mpg is suspect, because
a) no arithmetic or information available on the web supports that number. If we add up the minutes of the starting PG, SG, SF and C from last season (by ESPN.com), it leaves 34.2 minutes for the starting PF. But no PF played that many minutes for the Rockets last season, due to rotation. Patterson only played 25.9 minutes. Delfino was not a starter (or a PF) but he played 25 mpg. Lin and Beverly had 49.6 minutes between them, but only 48 minutes go to the PG. To be arithmetically reliable, we need to account for rotation.
b) Howard was on a different team last season.
c) There is no reason to "bar injury" from the calculations. Howard was injured last season, for example.

If you hadn't offered to instruct me in arithmetic, I wouldn't offer to instruct back (for future reference). :grin:

 

While I agree that Dmo is more proficient in playing without the ball in his hands, off the ball, I guess most or all European players are capable of doing that.
I think most guys on the board have fallen for his 7 ft size and the endless possibilities but right now he is hardly an NBA player.
He still gets pushed out of position a bit and can't finish for now.

I hope he can find his shot, being aggressive even with limited touches.
I feel Valanciunas has done a better job if you compare Lithuanian players.

 

And don't forget he has to be dirt cheap.

 

Evidence that Aldridge has developed a 3pt game? Because he went 2-14 on 3s last season.

 

Fyi we signed Dwight Howard. He'll play about 35 mpg.

 

we should go after Jared Jefferies

guy is the ultimate glue guy. draws a ton of charges, hustles, passes up shots, does all the little things that helps team win. he is the alter ego of harden. compliment him perfectly

 

1c. You are the one who brought up "arithmetic or information available on the web," not me. What do you mean "historical information"? The 2011-2012 Orlando Magic? Where Dwight had 38 mpg and their FGA ranked 27th in the league? Do you consider their roster similar to this year's Rox or what? I don't really know how that team is relevant except that it had one guy the same as the Rox five starters: different coach, different conference, no second all star. . . . Did you figure the 2011-2012 Thunder in for Harden's numbers? What is the method here?

2a. You don't think it is necessary to consider rotation of players in your calculations? Your post only refers to the times when all five starters are on the court? I don't think we will see all five starters on the court for 33 minutes per game. I also think we might want a PF who could function on the court without the starters, maybe even to be the #1 option.

2c. You don't merely make predictions but personnel recommendations. My recommendation is that the Rockets should expect injuries. That's why every team in the NBA generally goes 3 deep for each position. The necessity to have depth at a position affects personnel choices, and that is what you are doing: suggesting personnel choices. Do you really think any team just assumes no starter will be injured and fills their roster based on that assumption? If Dwight or Harden went down, we might want a strong PF to step up, rather than just saying "Oh darn our assumptions!"

 

In terms of the purely statistical discussion, I'd like to see pace-adjusted FGA also be compared to team performance. That would probably shed some more light on these issues.