Bro, you never actually responded to me... and yo stuff is just wrong man. Watch some film, learn actual defensive rotations and schemes. Personally, as a former defensive stopper myself, it is obvious how stats cannot quantify defence. None of us are Patrick groupies, we just recognize where credit is due: the man would be a good, cheap fit currently on the Rockets. He is a smart, high effort, above average defender with a great shot and low turnover rate. Communication on defence is key, and Ppat is often the loudest on the court. He is a hard worker, and does not have a questionable attitude. None of us (hopefully) are saying he is an all-star.
Jeez dude. Everything I have said sailed over your head unnoticed. I had Rocket season tickets for years before you were born, and I live in NY where I can watch the Rockets games for a mere $180 a season.
My stuff is not wrong. I have a math degree and I have presented enough facts that even you should be swayed. dRAPM, synergy whatever facts you present (and fail to understand) you are wrong. Do not give me your opinion to counter my facts. If you do not understand how statistical analysis works just keep your mouth shut.
I thought the whole Patterson's impact on the team thing was debated to death already. But it seems to be rehashed right now. So I'll just go over my old arguments again. First, the positive. Patterson is a very good shooter. Excellent shooter. From a spot-up shooting standpoint, among the best in the NBA. If the Rockets are down by 1 and the ball passes out to an open shooter 18 feet out, I'd rather have PPat taking that shot than LaMarcus Aldridge. However, he has way too many negatives as a player to warrant long term future with the team. That's why I was thrilled to have him traded for Robinson. Not that I thought incredibly highly of Robinson, but because we got value for him before having to pay him market value. Negatives. 1. He doesn't shoot the corner 3 enough. He likes his baseline mid-range jumper very much. And he's very good at it. But it's still not as good as the corner 3, which he doesn't shoot nearly enough of. This would be fine if there were other reasons for moving closer to the basket. But... 2. He doesn't attack the basket. Both in terms of offensive rebounds and in general. His offensive rebounding is worse than all other Rockets bigs and Beverley. His FTA per 36 minutes is only better than Delfino, who really is just a spot up shooter. He also doesn't screen well for the guards, and instead prefer to quickly get to an open spot for the pick and pop. 3. Defensively he's not been a huge plus for the Rockets. If anything, he's been quite BAD by all measures. The Rockets always give up more points when he's on the court. This despite his replacements being Marcus-tweener-Morris and Carlos-notPF-Delfino. There have been tape studies that show Patterson simply not playing the P&R well. Overall people overrate Patterson because he looks the part. He has legit PF size. He's athletic. He shoots well. He seems like he can defend both stretch 4s and big PFs. But in actual games, he doesn't show that potential. Very disappointing IMO because I thought he'd be our Horace Grant type.
Well thought out. You can summarize that in one sentence though. 'He lost his fire after one season.'
LOL. SAC is irrelevant??? He was 427th in defense in the NBA defense there. There are what 30 times 15 = 450 players in the NBA (plus a few) and he was 427th??? How really really bad is that? Bargnani bad. I kid you not. He was a sieve. Plus D-Mo Had better defensive stats with the Rockets last year and he played a fewer % of his minutes with Asik than PP. How bad is that? Breaking Bad bad. RAPM, if you did not know is derived from +/- stats. It measures how a player performs on the court when combined with various lineups. It "regularizes" (god I hate that layman term) those numbers over the previous 2 seasons. In the stats community is is sort of the gold standard of defensive stats. And PP was not good at all. You have fallen into the trap of debating me with your opinion. That is an argument that you will always lose. Your lying eyes are doing nothing but leading you astray. Learn to disregard your opinion and focus on facts.
Meh, you are always appreciated in any conversation. Maybe they will listen to you. I obviously do not have the cred sway them. Despite overwhelming facts.
Impressive array of overused, arbitrary cliches to gloss over the fact that you were the one who first brought up Synergy stats to begin with, before it blew up in your face. Instead of cherry picking his isolation and PnR defense, both having a small sample size, why don't we talk about his 279th ranked overall defense, according to your own stats?
PP sucks on defense. No matter how loud he yells. What is he saying "Man free! Man free! Cover my ass!"? His Rockets defense was worse than D-Mos and his SAC defense was amoung the worst in the league. So your point is ... ?
This whole post is spot on, except that 2Pat only started shooting 3s last season and still could be improving there. But Morey said it best when he said the PF position last year did not add anything to the team. 2Pat was not a plus, nor was he a minus. We didn't win more due to him, nor did we lose because of him.
Synergy defensive stats currently are highly flawed. If combined with care with dRAPM they are of value. I do not use them because they are so suspect. Statistical analysis is a black art. At least that is what we in the math community think. I do not profess to be fluent in the analysis, but I do have much more than a basic understanding of the subject.
Everybody cannot play the PnR perfectly, but I would love to see the tape studies on the PnR. I agree with your first two points, and have said that earlier. About the corner threes, it is important to realize it was his first year shooting them consistently. He has a weakness in rebounding. Dude, you were the one presenting dRAPM. Congrats on your degree though, but you should really not assume that I don't know statistical analysis. One just cannot quantify defensive ability accurately. And please: keep it classy. You lose a lot of credibility when you say that communication on defence is not important.
Dude it is over. Do not twist peoples posts like that. PP pretty much sucks, and has little or no upside. Get over it. There is a mountain of evidence here. Read it and weep. If you do not understand it, I can give you a simplistic breakdown of the facts and the math.
Math shows he is a below average player based on RAPM which is based on three years of data. One of those three years, he was a rookie and another of those years he sucked as he recovered from an ankle injury. His ability to score at 64% around rim, 49% from mid range, and 40% from corner threes probably makes him an around an average player when factoring rebounding and defense. RAPM will probably show that in a season or two if it was going to still published. "Advanced stats" really won't be accurate for Patterson until he gets at least another year of data away from his ankle injury.
Unless you truly understand the implications of Bayesian statistical techniques you should not be weighing into this discussion. Besides, it is over and dead I hope.
