Official 2013 Budget/Debt Limit/Obamacare Crisis Thread

truerox, watch the video above. They do not see themselves as martyrs. They think they are "winning".

 

Winning on the issue. They think they're in the right, of course they think they're winning. What I was saying was that, if you believe that what they are doing is politically stupid, than why would they do it? If it was in fact politically stupid, the only answer is that they aren't playing the politics game and that this is a serious issue (Obamacare) and is not just partisan politics.

I don't have sound at the office, forgot my earphones.

Why is no one concerned that Obama is trying to talk wall street over the cliff? Has a President EVER told purposefully told investors they should be worried? Isn't part of the job trying to keep things calm? The DOW did just fine yesterday, and isn't doing terrible today, but last I heard it was down 125, up 62 at one point yesterday (I don't deal w/ stocks so I don't look at them, but I happened to take a look yesterday afternoon). Now Obama is giving interviews w/ MSNBC saying investors are "not worried enough?" Considering how vulnerable the market is, isn't that dangerous rhetoric?

 

Prepping people for reality is part of his job. Congress right now claims they are going to hold the debt ceiling hostage. If that's true, then we have a problem. If it's not true, they should make that clear.

 

Prepping people for reality? You mean telling investors they should be worried about a default is reality? Last I checked we are not at risk of defaulting even with the budget impasse. Seems more like he is lying to scare investors so that he can make the claim that this is hurting the economy...when it is not.

 

The default possibility has nothing to do with the budget impasse. We run out of borrowing authority in 2 weeks (October 17th), and Congress is threatening not to pass a debt hike. That's reality.

 

That was the point I was trying to make. They are separate issues, no one is talking about defaulting on our obligations. They haven't said they WILL raise the debt ceiling, but you don't typically show your hand before you bet.

 

Except this shouldn't be about "showing your hand" - that's the whole point. Sequence of events:

1. Threaten to not fund government.
2. No one believe them
3. Actually follow through on threat.
4. Threaten to not raise debt ceiling.

At that point, there is a real possibility that these people ARE this crazy, and the President is making clear that reality. That reality is hanging on the markets until either the House agrees to raise the debt ceiling or we breach it.

 

Yes they have

Boehner Reportedly Assures Republicans That Debt Ceiling Will Be Raised

 

The tea party folks have their own reality and trust no one including established Republicans. They aren't necessarily in for the win, for being pragmatic, but to stand by their very strong ideology and thus absolutely no compromise. They are by definition extreme.

The established Republicans is a minority and so they need the tea party. The problem is they have lost control and any idea that they can 'tame' the tea party folks seem dead. There is a good chance that tea party folks will let the US default over Obamacare. And their is a reasonable chance that Boehner is going to allow it. Pressure is needed now to avoid this so engaging the busn and financial folks makes good sense.

 

Well than that's even more reason to be upset about Obama lying about the US defaulting. I was assuming Major was correct in that they hadn't made comments regarding the debt ceiling, as I too had not come across any comments from leadership.

 

Boehner made those comments after Obama and the Treasury made clear the stakes - and he only did it privately within the caucus. It's only been reported by an anonymous source.

 

The established Republicans are not a minority, the Tea Party is a minority. That's the whole reason that brought them into existence, they were upset with the RINOs.

There is nothing about Obamacare/Budget that will cause us to default. They are two separate issues.

 

So than back to my original statement about showing your hand.

 

So you think it is responsible for the President to make comments that could cause the market to crash on the basis that Republicans COULD cause it in the future?

Is this akin to ripping a bandaide off? Might as well bring the pain now because it's coming anyways? Even though it's based on an assumption that Republicans will act a certain way.

 

Yes - playing political games with the debt ceiling is dangerous and stupid. We saw what happened 2 years ago, and the amount of damage it it did to the economy and the markets. Obama was preparing people for a repeat, with an even more radicalized GOP on the other side. His job is to present the reality of the situation, and that is that he's not negotiating with a bunch of crazy people, and the last time he tried that (a few days ago), they didn't blink, so be aware. The chance of default should be 0%. The reality is that it's not until the GOP publicly commits to not holding it hostage.

 

The market's job is to weigh risks. Obama's job is to provide an honest assessment of the situation, which he did. His job is not to pretend everything is great and lead the market to invest improperly.

The market didn't crash. It went down in a fairly orderly manner - which is exactly what you would expect if the chance of a debt breach goes from 0% to 1%. If the debt ceiling is actually breached, this drop will look like a blip on the radar.

 

just saw on CBS news that 76% of Americans want obama to negotiate with the GOP...

 

Eventually the President is going to have make a big boy decision and just invoke the 14th amendment and end this. A government shutdown is one thing but a default is so insane that he should just go ahead and do it.

We can't let the clowns in Congress just drive us over a cliff. This has gone on far enough.

 

14th Amendment doesn't work. Yes, it lets you borrow - but it does so under a cloud of uncertainty of the legality of it and whether that debt is actually going to be held up down the line. If people are buying US debt with that cloud, rates will still jump because there's additional risk.

 

The President cannot invoke the 14th Amendment to unilaterally borrow. According to the Director of the National Economic Council.