Cohete, when unemployment numbers come out watch the market, if more people are unemployed than expected the market rises bc that means the fed will continue its $85B/month bond buying program if we hit our goal of 6.5% unemployment. So when they lay out a number like 325,000 new jobless claims, if 260,000 are newly jobless that's good news the market drops bc now the traders feel there is a chance the fed could taper.....if 500,000 are newly jobless the dow would jump 200 points bc that's great news to traders, the fed will continue QE and may even up it. Bas housing stats, bad PMI numbers, any type of gloom regarding the US economy is wonderful if you hold stocks bc bernanke and soon to be yellen will keep printing money and thus inflating stocks. Janet Yellen, the successor to bernanke wants to print even more, like i said she believes in negative interest rates if it were doable, google that. You want to be in stocks right now, there seems to be no end to the printing bc if we do, interest rates will rise if we taper and higher interest rates means more interest for us to pay our debts, higher mortgage rates, higher credit card rates,etc and would thus kill our economy. We're struggling mightily with artificially low rates....there is no way we succeed with higher rates. People can barely buy homes at these super low rates, 30 years ago my parents paid 4-5x higher rate....would you get a $500,000 mortgage at 12% APR? that's $60,000/year in interest....no nobody would. Enjoy QE infinity and invest accordingly....I'm not a broken record....how do you not know this is going on?
what i meant above after reading it is if we ever hit 6.5% unemployment, the goal, the fed has stated it will end bond buying which will send the market down, so high unemployment is good for stocks at the moment
Japan had two decades of QE which did not exactly translate into great success for stock prices. And I do not see your correlation between rising unemployment and stock prices.
you clearly aren't watching the market when the bad news isn't released. I work from home so im glued to cnbc
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12036493/1/stocks-rise-as-retail-sales-fed-grab-spotlight.html Stocks Gain as 'Bad News Is Good News' Eases Investor Concerns Joe Deaux 09/13/13 - 04:12 PM EDT NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- U.S. stocks gained Friday as a raft of soft U.S. economic data eased investor concerns the Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus program. TheS&P 500 gained 0.27% to close at 1,687.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the regular trading day higher by 0.49%, to 15,376.06. The Nasdaq added 0.17% to close at 3,722.18. The Fed is scheduled to begin its two-day policy meeting on Sept. 17 with a policy declaration coming the following day. The results of that meeting could have an outsized impact on global markets as the Fed decides whether to scale back its economic stimulus program. The central bank currently purchases $85 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities and longer-term Treasuries. "That's a big deal -- that's what everybody's waiting for," Allan Flader, a financial adviser at RBC Wealth Management, in a phone interview. "How much are they going to taper? Are they going to taper? What the heck is going on?" RBC forecats a $15 billion reduction [in monthly asset purchases]," Flader said. Investors view the Fed's economic stimulus program as a positive for stocks while equity analysts generally credit quantitative easing for having catapulted U.S. markets to recent all-time highs after bottoming in March 2009.
exactly the day we announced we wouldn't be tapering last week the market shot up to an all time high
Yeah, it's funny how BAD employment news, and WEAK consumer confidence is fueling Wall Street to all time highs. :grin:
Or it could be that the economy is continuing to grow (albeit slowly) and profits keep rising so the market keeps rising. Fear of a European meltdown and other major crisis points are slowly diminishing, so it's logical that multiples in the market would increase as well. The whole "bad news = good news" thing is a bit of a misnomer. It's true sometimes; it's false plenty of other times - you just don't hear about it when it's false because it's not a particularly interesting stroy. It's one of those things that's simply true until it isn't, and then everyone just forgets about it. QE is better for the market than no QE, but the individual economic data points aren't driving the market nearly as much as it may appear at times.
A rising stock market is fine, but exploding to all-time highs? You really think the current economic conditions justify that? Screw data points, which are pretty much obfuscated beyond all recognition at this point. I think the simple smell test is enough to conclude there is something" fishy" going on with the stock market right now.
Sure - why not? The economy is larger than ever, profits are higher than ever, and the economy is growing. Why? When should the market have "peaked" if not now?
You said you bought HIMX at 5.80 and sold at 8.33 before. A good call, but you don't need to tell fish stories.
You didn't listen to what Bernanke said kind of like how you aren't listening to anything that doesn't agree with what you want to believe.
I did sell it, but I got back in...damn robbie didn't know i had to document every trade with you. The bottom line is I said buy at $5.80 and you said to short at $8.50 or $9.50 and I was right and you were wrong....alas continue with the butthurt
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2013/09/what-will-drive-equities-higher-in-next.html I think this blog did a good job of simply explaining things.
You said you sold and got into CHL. You were very vocal about owning HIMX and didn't mention buying it back, so I figured you were still in CHL. and lol I'm not butthurt. I've made more than a few profitable trades in my life .
This is exactly what I was talking about yesterday http://www.economist.com/news/unite...estions-about-future-social-mobility-american
Shorted some FB today. Might look to average into it tomorrow if it moves up. I'll get out if it moves to new highs. Maybe cover on that 10 day moving average.
