Now is not a good time to buy the US dollar. I don't know what I would do if I lived in Australia, but here in America I would put money into the Japanese Yen, Canadian dollar, or South African Rand. Those currencies are poised to jump in terms of USD.
True, but if the market has reached a tipping point where stocks are overvalued, something like a Fed taper move could trigger a massive sell off. I don't expect it to happen anytime soon, especially with high unemployment, and real underemployment going on.
the yen is going to jump? Where did you study economics? Shinzo Abe is trying as hard as he can to devalue the yen so japanese exports will rise. See the nikkei and it's rapid rise? Their QE is just beginning and it's way bigger than ours in comparison. I wouldn't want the US dollar and even less Id want the yen, i do own DXJ which is up big this year thanks to the devaluing yen.....yen will be 110 to the dollar by next year. Do you also suggest iraqi dinar?
The JPY has already been devalued as far as they can go under Abe-nomics. There's a point where they can't borrow anymore to devalue the yen, they've basically reached that point. And when exports do finally rise, that will put pressure on the yen to rise with it, their unemployment is relatively low, they can handle it. The USD will also hit a similar floor, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Other countries don't feel the need to pull these cheap tricks with their currency. That's why the British pound is solid. AUD and CAD economies are based on mining and oil, they are also quite solid.
So, does anyone have any predictions regarding this week? The Fed lockout business seems overblown, but there's enough uncertainty left in the market to worry about. My friend has pulled out all her investments, saying the market is volatile. But the market volatility index was still 13 last I checked, which is actually lower than the mean. Anybody got any predictions?
We are now on the umptenth version of the Congress debt ceiling "debate" that the media pushes. The market has had a distinct rhyme to the "debate" every time so far. The market goes down during the whole charade and then just before the final vote on whether or not to raise the debt ceiling the market rallies. I'd expect the same to happen over the course of the "debate" time frame.
Anybody want to take a guess as to what the Obamacare vote in congress is going to do to biotech and healthcare provider stocks ?
Nothing. The Obamacare votes in Congress are theater - nothing is going to change with health care reform here. The risk to the market this week is a government shutdown, which might happen this weekend (Sept 30) if Congress implodes. Most likely scenario is that it looks likely as the week goes on and drags the market down and volatility up, and then they solve it and the market calms down and possibly rebounds. Then repeat the process in 3 weeks with the debt ceiling in mid-October.
you have to be in stocks now bc in reality bad news is GOOD NEWS bc it means more QE and more inflating of the stock market. In reality good news is bad news bc it means like QE and potential big taper and market decline. Being in the boat that we're not gonna hit 6.5% unemployment and that we don't wanna repay our debt at a higher rate and we dont wanna kill the housing market with higher interest rates.....I feel there is a reason it is QE infinity....no way we stop printing big dollars till the dollar explodes. How would I invest? High beta stocks roar with the market look at what Wynn,LVS, and my favorite HIMX have done this year? HIMX went from $1.80 to $11 today and with google glass coming it will go higher, i mentioned it on another thread at $5.70. The dividend payers are the ones that will be hurt most in a taper bc rising interest rates will send people to treasuries if the rates ever go up to anything decent so there will be a dividend stock sell off then. Open an account with bank of china in nyc get your currency in yuan, i have some there, you don't want dollars. You want stocks,real estate,gold,silver, yuan you want anything but dollars. We are going to blow up our dollar and inflate our way out of this mess. The rich will be fine bc they have assets, businesses, home, stocks. Its the regular people who saved up cash that will get smacked the hardest. I really see no tapering and possibly more QE when yellen takes over, google her take on interest rates, she believes in negative rates ie you deposit $100k and get back $97k. She's a loony and will print like there is no end, we will see a roaring market the next few years, i highly suggest you buy stocks now. They're not overvalued, yes we're up 150% from the low but were not even up 10% off the highs of 2007 and company earnings are growing. We are so global the US doesn't affect the world like it used to. We're 350 million people if we struggle sure the world struggles but most of these companies have sales that are so global now that you're seeing growing earnings while the US declines. We're losing jobs but those companies are doing more with less and that's scary they're making more money with less workers and that's a big problem for the avg american. We're losing jobs to cheap labor abroad and now companies know they can make more without having all that fluff...... so yes I foresee more doom for the avg american but companies will thrive in general. They have refinanced bad debts with these low interest rates which were a gift, they have bought back stock using loans at low rates look at apple look at phillip morris. PM has a high debtload but it's due at a lower rate than their dividend so they had an arbitrage situation where they borrowed but are getting more by buying their own stock. So companies basically got their ducks in a row these last few years and with QE going hard i think we will see dow 20,000 before we see a big correction everyone is calling for. Very few good buys left, but like i said before HIMX is my pick and its up like 80% this month. The hype alone between now and the release of google glass combined with any news on oculus rift(which theyre confirmed in) + the potential for a deal with microsoft who is already a customer of theirs for xbox one AR goggles will send this stock to $20+ from here. They're projected to earn $.60/share next year but there was a piece in barron's saying that number was wrong and the real EPS with glass factored in will be $1.18 or so. That puts it at 8x earnings today, when it's trading at 31x current year earnings.....do the math....31x $1.18 would put it at $35, so im being conservative saying $20 from here. Google glass could be the next big thing, it could flop....but i don't see any other hot product between now and next summer that could cause as big a stir as google glass....and hype alone is going to be great for HIMX. I think the rise from $5.77 to $11 this month is just the beginning.
There is a lot in that rant, but I had to address this. The yuan is pegged to the US dollar. If you put your money in yuan then it is technically the same as having US dollars. The yuan is appreciating to the dollar because the Chinese govt is allowing it to.
Europe is looking much better these days under Merkel, who is a guaranteed re-election. They finally have their sh@#t together, while the US budget and debt is still a mess. I'm gonna look for some low to mid cap Euro ETF's to buy. British pound and Euro currency is solid too.
yes but as our dollar declines your yuan will still have great value. I had a friend who moved to australia within the last 5 years and basically had a huge net worth jump thanks to the decline of our dollar vs AUD in that time frame What I said isn't rant its true....hence why we didn't taper...we literally cannot. Higher rates will blow up this precious housing comeback bc nobody is gonna borrow at high rates, my parents first home in 80s was near 15%. WE can barely sell homes at 4.5% today. The avg american is in trouble bc their job security isn't there bc some foreigner can do the same job for less without benefits...that's a fact....most big companies are allocating jobs overseas. Where is that a rant? You were pretty much the same bear in my other wearable computing thread where i suggested himx was a buy at $5.77 and you said you shorted it at $8 or 9 of course you bombed on that prediction as well as it kept roaring. At this point my opinion holds more merit than yours in terms of HIMX or any other rant. Im 1/1 in a big way and you're 0/1 with that short you put in on the stock.
Lol we don't need to start comparing trading records. I know who will win that one. Yeah I covered my short. It was a trade. It didn't work. Anyhow, going back to the yuan point....you completely ignored my point and reality. The yuan is tied to the dollar. That means if the US dollar declines relative to other currencies then the yuan will decline as well. Can you at least acknowledge that? Do you recognize that the Chinese government is allowing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar? http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/chinas-peg-to-the-dollar.asp
the dollar has been in decline for a while now and the yuan has appreciated nicely....i dont get the point youre attempting to make. The yuan is about to become the worlds reserve currency(google it) while people are dumping dollars left and right. But go on...
This is not happening anytime soon, for a wide number of reasons. The US Dollar is pretty secure in this regard for the foreseeable future.
Apple is up 5.00% today on record weekend iPhone sales (9 million total). BlackBerry went private today; they were bought at a valuation of $9 a share for a worth of $4.7 billion. Wow, BlackBerry has fallen fast! There is reason that the IPO market is making a comeback, as there are 13 companies with IPOs this week.
Even if education were tenfold improved (in STEM, mainly), the rate of workers being displaced due to disruptive technologies (i.e. internet, automation, just overall optimization of the capitalist system) would still outpace the rate at which those jobs are replenished over time.. there is a lag between the creation of a job-destroying technology, and then the creation of a whole new set of jobs for the new one. companies are being run more efficiently because of new technologies. where there were 5 people, now its 1 person and a machine/robot/etc. so like you said, they are making more revenues with less operating costs. the jobs have shifted to a different segment, and the development of that new workforce needs to catch up. US unemployment will not be solved until that catches up. until the workforce is ready, companies will be hiring foreign workers or moving HQs entirely. so many support arms of companies can be conducted remotely because of vastly improved telecommunications. so yes I can see where you're coming from eddiewinslow.. QE could continue indefinitely because of these factors, keeping unemployment afloat. little waves of hiring, then introduction of a new way of doing things, followed by a loss of jobs.. then the lag until the new jobs are created. right now its especially impactful because computers were only invented in this past century. Initially, the same # of people manually used computers, now the shift is going to computers doing things for themselves where human input was once required. Automation. before computers and all advanced telecommunications, people were needed for every step of the business process. then the same number of people digitally did the same processes. better, but still manual input. now so much is automated, and increasingly so. granted, systems need people to maintain/troubleshoot them, but still less people than it would take to manually run the process. so the US can catch up in its level of workforce education, which is unlikely considering the systems in place overseas that produce great STEM workforce numbers/quality, or it can weather the storm its put itself in. and i think that means lots of QE and low interest rates, and a continued stock market rise. As the american workforce gets disheartened, they could become lazier. and become less consumer-minded, as they will have less money. This could lead to new types of grassroots innovation from the best of the bunch, however. A general shift in the populace is occurring.. people have more and more questions and doubts of "why" these days, instead of just following, and doing as others have done. This can be good and bad for society. Wealth will concentrate in the hands of those that already have it, and for those that are wealthy (middle-uppermiddle classes) but not mega-wealthy, they will have to become very prudent with finances and cut out exorbitant luxury expenditures really only meant for the mega-wealthy if they want to remain wealthy and ensure some safety wealth for their generations. That is, unless their children get educated ahead of the curve.. which is possible in pockets, in the US. Affluent suburbs and private schools offer such advantages. And those keep getting more exclusive as wealth concentrates, so the growth of such individuals from the US could slow. NGO programs and grassroots action could have great opportunity. Which takes heart, but ultimately a lot of money for excellent execution and program longevity.
major....the yuan is not backed by a government that is 17 trillion in debt with another 100 trillion in unfunded liability. The chinese government is nowhere near bankruptcy. We on the other hand continue to make fun of china saying its not growing etc while they're growing at like 7 % annually while we can't even hit 2%. The united states does a fine job of bashing its competition. We're like a boxer in a fight that's beatup but keeps throwing jabs at the opponent even though we know there is no resolution. China is the future, they will own all the big things one day. Look at how their version of Exxon, sinopec is buying up assets left and right. Look at how China Mobile is 4x bigger than ATT and Verizon combined! You wanna invest in growth, china is the place. The united states was the place of growth the last 50 years, the next 50 years emerging markets will be the place and the rate china is growing at is incredible, the fact they have a solid currency backed by a stable government is reason alone to invest in their currency. The dollar meanwhile is backed by the good word of the Fed and all its cronies and has $100 trillion+ in liabilities
