An Analytical Approach to the Rockets 2013-2014 season

Thank you dobro. Your opinion means a lot to me. Being the only advanced stats analyst here can be frustrating at times.

And you are right. I did "arbitrarily" assign minutes to orchestrate a best case outcome. However I did attempt to allocate minutes so that every position had 48 minutes a game. For instance Lin's mpg plus Beverly's mpg add up to approximately 48 minutes. I did do some optimization exercises on the model. For instance I made this modification substituting Howard's better DRtg for Asik's according to the formula:

(Team DRtg with Asik full time (102.3)) - ((Net difference between Howard and Asik's Dtrg (~3%)) * (Asik's court time (62%)) = 102.28 A difference of 0.02.

The ORtg and DRtg stats are dominated by Howard, Harden, Asik, Parsons and Lin. They basically compose 66% of the stats. Modifying minutes of "fringe" players yields a microscopic change in the Rockets overall stats.

And for simplicities sake I did not include some model inputs such as Howard's obvious offensive superiority over Asik. While including it would have been trivial explaining it to the masses would have been incredibly difficult.

Anyway thanks for the interest. But any bench featuring Bev, Garcia and Asik has to be one of the top ten benches in the NBA. Best to you.

 

Understood. Having retired at 50 has its benefits. But IMHO you are at times a voice of reason. And that is a good thing. And if you need any pointers just ask. As always.

 

I am so sure that you are right I am not even going to check it. Good catch! But I have always been of the opinion that the Spurs, Heat and OKC are the only true competitors next season. Didn't Morey say that? Oh, and a long shot is the Nets. Who knows how good they will be next season?

The SAS system and Pop will always be a threat. Best run franchise in the league. Back when Morris was selected in the draft and SAS took KL I knew at that moment that Morey had completely ****ed up.

53 wins is well shy of my estimation of the Rockets next season. There are many reasons for that prediction.

 

The image of the advanced stats in the initial post contains a lot of statistical information. While I did not set up WS using formulas that account for minutes played, for the starters you can manipulate that field to alter the outcome however you want. For instance what if Harden misses 30 games? His WS drops by 30/82 * 12.8 = 4.68 games. Therefor if you think that if healthy the Rockets win 56 games next season, if Harden is hurt for 30 games then the Rockets only win 56 - 4.68 games = 51.32 games.

Hope this helps.

 

There are many possible, even likely, scenarios that lead me to be more optimistic about next season than the stats indicate.

• Howard had his worst statistical season last year since his rookie campaign.
• The Rockets will have a meaningful training camp and preseason unlike last year.
• There should be player progression for many of the young players. Lin, Bev, D-Mo, Jones I am looking at you.
• McHale will know how to utilize his players and team unlike last year when two days before the start of the season he was going WTF?
• Etc.

 

LOL. All of this coming from the the master of the under 20 word post (~80% of 700+ posts). People should check out your post history:
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/search.php?searchid=381315
Sorry guy, you are a content free poster.

You b**** about a lack of graphics??? This post did not require them. It was just straight analysis. If you want some of the most amazing graphics in basketball analysis check out my thread
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=244140
Now that is knock your socks off graphics.

I see absolutely nothing in your post history that even hints that you have a clue about advanced basketball analysis. Do you even have a rudimentary understanding of the subject? Quick tell me the difference between WS and PER without looking it up on Google. Thought not. Even easier what goes into calculating RAPM? What does that acronym stand for?

adjective: arbitrary
Based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.

You assume that I used the word arbitrary to mean random, when I actually used it to denote personal whim. And besides, I gave the minute adjustments up front and in complete detail. Your criticism is completely without merit.

Good luck with that dude. I am not some frickin idiot. Your hollow threats do not cause me one second of stress.

Basically your entire post is unsupportable, and I have therefor assigned you to my list of CF idiots.

 

Oh and JC I just absolutely love your reply to Carl:

Do you have a thing about graphics? Just asking.

 

LOL jocar. You are just watching for some blood. Good for you.