http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ing-in-india-as-price-advances-to-record.html Scrap Gold Sales Jumping in India as Price Advances to Record By Swansy Afonso & Pratik Parija - Sep 4, 2013 5:05 AM CT Sales of scrap gold in India are surging as the plunge in the nation’s currency drives bullion prices to a record, easing a supply crunch caused by curbs on imports by the world’s largest consumer. Supplies of recycled bullion, mostly coins and bars, have climbed to 100 kilograms to 150 kilograms a day in Mumbai, the country’s biggest gold market, from 5 kilograms to 10 kilograms a week earlier, said Prithviraj Kothari, managing director of Riddhisiddhi Bullions Ltd. Investors, who bought the metal at lower prices, are leading the rush to sell, said S. Venkatesh Babu, president of the Jewellers’ Association of Bengaluru. “Investors are selling gold all across the country,” said Kothari, who is also a director of the Bombay Bullion Association, which represents about 1,000 jewelers and traders. “There is a huge amount of scrap supply coming into the market. There is a liquidity crisis and people are selling and putting the money in the bank.” Futures in Mumbai advanced to an all-time high last week, rebounding 41 percent from a two-year low in June, as the rupee slumped to the lowest level against the dollar. The increase in scrap supplies is helping jewelers meet demand as banks and traders have yet to resume shipments after the Reserve Bank of India tightened import rules in July, said Kumar Jain, a spokesman for the bullion association. Consumers Selling Recycled bullion supply in India fell 44 percent to 31 metric tons in the first six months of 2013, even as gold imports jumped 45 percent to 553 tons, according to the World Gold Council. Scrap supplies were 117 tons in 2012 and 59 tons in 2011, council data showed. Consumption in the country, which imports almost all the bullion it needs, accounted for about 20 percent of global demand in 2012, council data showed. “Consumers are selling coins and bars to benefit from the increase in prices,” said Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director with the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, which represents about 300,000 jewelers and bullion dealers. “Gold is available at a discount as everyone wants to sell.” The rupee weakened 18 percent against the dollar this year, set for the worst loss since 1991 when the nation had to pawn its gold for loans to pay for imports. The slump prompted the government to raise import taxes three times in 2013 to moderate consumption and curb a record current-account deficit. “All the people who thought they were stuck with the gold when the prices fell are looking to exit and a lot of investor selling is happening,” Babu said. “There are no buyers in the market. Only sellers.” Dollar Price The contract for delivery in October surged to an all-time high of 35,074 rupees per 10 grams ($522) on the Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd. on Aug. 28 and was at 33,429 rupees today. Prices in rupees gained 10 percent this year, compared with a 16 percent drop in the metal priced in dollars as some global investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. India’s rupee fell 8.1 percent in August, its biggest monthly loss since 1992 on concern a deepening economic slowdown will deter investors at a time when the U.S. prepares to pare stimulus. It fell to a record low of 68.845 on Aug. 28. “Demand for jewelry is weak in the local market now and it will start looking up from the first week of next month when the festival season starts,” said Haresh Soni, chairman of the jewelry trade federation. “Unless and until the rupee stabilizes the current situation will continue.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-as-goldman-sees-more-losses-commodities.html Gold Bulls Cut Wagers as Goldman Sees More Losses: Commodities By Debarati Roy & Luzi Ann Javier - Sep 16, 2013 8:40 AM CT Speculators got less bullish on gold, selling long contracts at the fastest pace this year as prices fell the most in almost three months on prospects for less central-bank stimulus. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the retreat has further to go. The net-long position held by hedge funds and other large speculators fell 16 percent to 84,929 futures and options in the week ended Sept. 10, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long holdings dropped 10 percent, the most since December, and short bets increased 9.8 percent. The net-bullish position across 18 U.S.-traded commodities slid 4.1 percent, with investors adding to bearish wagers on wheat and corn. Gold resumed its retreat, heading for the first annual loss in 13 years, after coming within 3 percentage points of a bull market on the threat of military strikes on Syria. The U.S. and Russia agreed Sept. 14 on a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons. Speculation Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen will become the next head of the central bank after former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew his name may support gold this week before a Fed meeting that economists expect will curb stimulus. “The market is trying to find a price for gold in an environment where the Fed begins cutting back its assistance,” said Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion of assets as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York. “The temporary sparkle that we had seen because of Syria is disappearing.” Price Declines Futures slumped 5.6 percent to $1,308.60 an ounce last week in New York. Gold retreated 21 percent this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, erasing almost $59 billion from the value of exchange-traded products and spurring at least $26 billion in writedowns by mining companies. Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected prices to fall again this week, with seven bullish and three neutral. It was the most bearish survey since June 21. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities declined 2.2 percent last week, the most since June, led by gold and a 9.1 percent drop in silver that was the biggest loss since June. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 2.2 percent and the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, slipped 0.7 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index rose 0.3 percent. Gold futures rose 0.8 percent today to $1,319. Summers Exit Summers withdrew his nomination to lead the Fed, before a two-day policy meeting starting tomorrow at which the central bank is forecast to reduce monthly bond purchases, known as quantitative easing, that have boosted demand for gold as a hedge against inflation. Summers would tighten Fed policy more than Yellen, who was his main rival to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, analysts and traders last week. The Fed will decide to cut monthly purchases of Treasuries to $35 billion from $45 billion and keep mortgage-bond buying at $40 billion at its meeting starting Sept. 17, according to the median estimate of 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg Sept. 6. Bullion rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system by purchasing debt, increasing concern that inflation would accelerate. In fact, U.S. consumer prices grew at a 2 percent rate in July, compared with a 10-year average of 2.4 percent. Goldman View Gold may drop below $1,000 for the first time since October 2009 as the Fed withdraws stimulus and the economy improves, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Sept. 13. Currie issued a sell recommendation for bullion on April 10, before prices plunged 13 percent in a two-session slump ended April 15 that sent the metal into a bear market. Societe Generale SA and ABN Amro Group NV are also predicting more declines after prices fell 31 percent from a record $1,923.70 reached in September 2011. Gold may stabilize near $1,200 in the longer term because of production costs, Goldman’s Currie said. Many producers would be forced to shutter output if prices stayed below that level for long, Alberto Calderon, adviser to the chief executive officer at BHP Billiton Ltd. and a former executive of the company, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Sept. 13. BHP is the world’s largest mining company. Syria Concern Prices jumped 6.3 percent in August on concern that military action against Syria would disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East, raising energy costs and stoking inflation. The U.S. remains “prepared to act” if diplomacy fails to persuade Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to give up his chemical arms stockpile, President Barack Obama said. “There’s still very high likelihood of geopolitical risks as things in the Middle East are not getting better, and there’s a strong chance of a military conflict,” said Jeff Sica, who helps oversee more than $1 billion as the president of Sica Wealth Management in Morristown, New Jersey. “As long as physical demand for gold doesn’t trail off dramatically, we’ll have price stability.” Gold imports by India, the biggest buyer, will probably rebound, helping to keep bullion demand from Asia strong, Standard Chartered Plc said in report Sept. 12. Billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson’s PFR Gold Fund rose 12 percent in August, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The gain pares the $400 million fund’s loss this year to 55 percent.
Not 2011, but I'm bored so I just used Yahoo Finance price data for this...edit cause I screwed stuff up. I probably screwed up more stuff so feel free to correct me. If you bought 1 share of GLD every month since 11/18/04 (that's as far back as the price data went) then your average price in GLD would be 101.40 for a total pre-tax return of about 25% with GLD at 126.25 If you bought 1 SPY share every month you would have an average price of 126.48 completely excluding dividends. You would be up about 34.5% pre-tax with SPY at 170.40 today. If you bought $200 worth of GLD every month (I ignored the fractional shares for simplicity) since then you would have an average price of 84.52 and be up about 50% pre-tax at today's price. If you bought $200 worth of SPY (ignoring fractional share issues) every month since 11/18/04 your avg price would be 124.28 and be up about 37% completely excluding dividends. I dunno just thought it was interesting to look at for comparison's sake.
Gold bouncing nicely with the Fed announcing no taper of the bond buying program. It's funny how gold moves.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-holdings-with-kazakhstan-for-11th-month.html Russia Increases Gold Holdings With Kazakhstan for 11th Month Russia and Kazakhstan expanded their gold reserves for an 11th straight month in August as bullion prices rallied. Mexico reduced its holdings. Russian assets gained 12.7 metric tons to 1,015.5 tons, International Monetary Fund data showed today. Kazakhstan’s reserves rose 2.5 tons to 134.5 tons and Turkey added 23.4 tons to 487.4 tons, the data showed. Gold advanced 5.3 percent in August, the second straight monthly gain and longest rally since September last year, as lower prices boosted demand amid mounting concern about military action against Syria. Investors sold 16.8 tons from gold-backed exchange-traded products in August, the smallest outflow this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Central banks are “long-term holders of gold, with a long-term view and prices at the moment are pretty attractive for a long-term buyer,” said Victor Thianpiriya, an analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) in Singapore. “The fact that they’re doing it in smaller volumes is consistent with the fact that sentiment towards gold is getting a bit more negative.” Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,326.79 an ounce at 2:48 p.m. in Singapore. Prices are set to gain 7.5 percent this quarter, the first advance in a year. Annual Drop The metal is heading for the first annual drop in 13 years as signs of a U.S. recovery and speculation the Federal Reserve may curb stimulus hurt gold demand while stocks and the dollar climb. Gold’s 21 percent slump compares with a 2.9 percent advance in the dollar and 13 percent gain in equities. Bullion rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the U.S. Federal Reserve pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system by purchasing debt, increasing investors’ concern about currency debasement and accelerating inflation. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said there is no fixed schedule for tapering after the central bank unexpectedly maintained $85 billion a month in asset purchases this month. While that decision may help gold prices in the short-term, bullion may drop below $1,250 before the end of the year, Citigroup Inc. said this week. Central bank purchases may total 370 tons in 2013, 30 percent less than a year earlier, it said. Nations added 534.6 tons to reserves last year, the most since 1964, according to the World Gold Council. Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Ukraine also added to reserves in August, the IMF data show. Mexico reduced its holdings for a 16th month to 123.6 tons and the Czech Republic also sold, according to the data.
gold is pretty beaten up this year, is anybody buying anything? I bought IAG last week and it was the only stock of mine that rose today up 2.4% with the down market. It's only $4.63 and they have about $2/share in cash and are off the high's of $17 a year ago. Any predictions where gold goes if we default or get our credit downgraded, last time our credit was downgraded gold zoomed all the way up to $1900. At $1300 it could move a bit if this default comes to reality...Im thinking it rises all the way until next wed and then either retreats or takes off in a big way in either direction.
