I understand that. I really do...despite posts seeming to think that I don't. What no one has explained to me is what players that will be Rule 5 eligible are so valuable that they get a 40-man slot? Anyone in the Astros top 20 prospects? If the answer is no, then please explain to me why it would be so bad to give him a good look at being a major league player? It's not like I'm asking that they bring Correa up at 19. This is a guy who has demolished AA and AAA this year and is 24 years old. Protecting some low level schlub doesn't seem like a good reason to me.
I agree with you about Springer, but there are quite a few players that need protection.Singleton,Stassi, Wojo, Santana and a few others, but by my count all of our top 30 prospects should be safe with a few spots to spare. At this point I really don't mind leaving him down there because I don't see 3 weeks making a huge difference, but he should have been up a month ago.
Here are the players who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This is the current 40-man roster. Pitchers Erik Bedard Kevin Chapman Jose Cisnero Paul Clemens Jarred Cosart Rhiner Cruz Jorge De Leon John Ely (listed on 7-day DL with OKC) Josh Fields Lucas Harrell Philip Humber Dallas Keuchel Chia-Jen Lo Jordan Lyles David Martinez Brett Oberholtzer Rudy Owens (currently on 60-day DL) Brad Peacock Alex White (currently on 60-day DL) Josh Zeid Catchers Jason Castro Cody Clark Carlos Corporan (currently on 15-day DL) Matt Pagnozzi Max Stassi (currently on 15-day DL) Infielders Jose Altuve Matt Dominguez Jake Elmore Marwin Gonzalez Brandon Laird Jonathan Villar Brett Wallace Outfielders Brandon Barnes Chris Carter Trevor Crowe Robbie Grossman L.J. Hoes Marc Krauss J.D. Martinez (currently on 15-day DL) Jimmy Paredes Eric Thames
I think the prospects that are on the bubble (fighting for the last 40 man spot versus Springer) are more likely in the 20-30 range. There are some really good players in that range that could make other team's top ten prospect lists. Some minor league analysts believe in ... There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect (TINSTAAPP)*. The central thesis is that it is damn hard if not impossible to project minor pitching talent into the MLB. Some sure fire pitching prospect miss. Some average pitching prospects go on to be average MLB pitchers (no mean feat). I suspect that Luhnow will be protecting his good-not-great pitching prospects before this winter's Rule 5 draft. * TINSTAAPP was a term coined by Baseball Prospectus founder Gary Huckabay back when he and other baseball savants did their debating on rec.sport.baseball. link
Thank you both for the info. That's what I was looking for. There are plenty of guys that will need protecting and I understand better what they're line of thinking is. I still say, however, it would be for the greater good to give him a chance to play. Is Marc Krauss really in our long term plans?
Maybe, maybe not. Is 50 extra ABs for Springer worth dumping someone who might have a chance be worth it? I think pitchers are more important to keep than hitters as they are more likely to be taken, and have a greater chance of suddenly figuring it out, but at the same time it can happen with hitters too. A month or so ago, I think experience would have had a lot more value. I'd prefer that he be forced to through a period where pitchers have adjusted to him, which isn't as likely this late in the season. See my thread on 40-man roster to see the guys that have to be on there for Rule 5 protection, or protected from waivers. The rosters have changed, so not perfect, but mostly the same. Ultimately somebody is going to be waived before next season to make room for Springer. This lengthens the evaluation period as well.
At this point I agree with you, no point in calling him up, but he should have been here a month ago. It would help him hit the ground running next year. He is expected to be a cornerstone for the next decade, I feel that experience would be much more valuable than holding a roster spot for a guy that is highly unlikely to make an ML impact. I've looked at the projected 40, all of our top 30 can be easily protected. We'll see, if he indeed starts next year with the Astros, I will believe this was a baseball decision. A decision I disagree with, but can respect. But if he tears up Florida and is conveniently sent to OKC for a few weeks, we'll know this was strictly financial to shorten a man's ML career. Which I don't like, regardless of what other franchises have done.
For our daily/weekly George Springer debate, courtesy of BA: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba/ The minor league playoffs are rolling along and the Astros already have seen three of their affiliates eliminated prior to the league finals. That may sound like the Astros are having a rough minor league postseason, but actually it means that Houston has three teams with a chance to win their league titles. Tri-City is getting ready to play in the short-season New York-Penn League championship series. Lancaster is tied 1-1 in the high Class A California League semifinals and Quad Cities is tied 1-1 in the low Class Midwest League semifinals. A club winning two minor league titles during one season happens occasionally, but winning three titles is truly a rare feat—though the Diamondbacks did it just last year. Speaking of the Astros . . . How many Rule 5-vulnerable players do the Astros have reason to be legitimately concerned about losing in the major league phase of the upcoming December draft? Mike Tauser Houston, Texas I’m going to suppose that Mike’s question stems in part from the speculation as to why the Astros have chosen to not call up center fielder George Springer. Triple-A Oklahoma City was eliminated from the Pacific Coast League playoffs over the weekend, but Houston has decided not to call up Springer and his 37 home runs and 45 stolen bases, at least in part because he’s not yet on the 40-man roster and does not have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until after next season. Astros fans understandably want to see Springer bring his power and speed to Houston. The Astros’ 46-78 record is seven games worse than the Marlins, so the battle for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft (otherwise known as the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes) is all but locked up. In reality, the Astros are not facing a 40-man roster crunch. They have the deepest farm system in the minors, but most of the players worth protecting won’t become Rule 5 eligible until 2014 and beyond. The Rule 5 draft hasn’t been a problem for Houston for many years. In fact, the Astros haven’t lost a player in the major league portion of the draft since righthander D.J. Houlton was picked by the Dodgers in 2004. The Astros’ 40-man roster is currently full, and amazingly, 39 of the players are under team control for 2014. Three prospective free agents on the Opening Day roster—Rick Ankiel, Carlos Pena and Ronny Cedeno—all were released during the season, leaving Erik Bedard as the only current Astro who will hit free agency this offseason. Even after waving goodbye to Bedard, however, Houston still will have 40 players on its roster once it reinstates Alex White from the 60-day disabled list. Now, that does not mean that the Astros have no room on the 40-man to protect additional players. Right fielder/third baseman Jimmy Paredes, third baseman Brandon Laird, righthanders John Ely, Philip Humber and Josh Zeid and catchers Cody Clark and Matt Pagnozzi are all players who could be dumped from the 40-man roster with few ramifications. Outfielder Trevor Crowe and even first baseman Brett Wallace could also be jettisoned, while righthander Edgar Gonzalez looks like a non-tender candidate. Just making some of these suggested moves would get the Astros five to seven spots to use to protect more valuable long-term players. If the Astros faced a true roster crunch, they could probably open up as many as 10 spots on the roster. But they don’t need to, because they do not have nearly that many players they need to protect. With few exceptions (largely limited to older high school draftees), this year’s Rule 5 eligible players will be high school players drafted in 2009 and college players drafted in 2010. International amateurs signed during the 2009 minor league season will also be eligible. When it comes to their own draftees, the 2009 draft is pretty bare of potential high school picks to protect. The club could protect first-round shortstop Jio Mier, but after he hit .197/.296/.268 at Double-A Corpus Christi this year, his appeal to other clubs would probably be limited. There’s not much risk that he’d stick on a major league roster all year, and even if he did, he’s behind Carlos Correa, Jonathan Villar and Nolan Fontana on the Astros’ shortstop depth chart. Neither second-round pick Tanner Bushue or third-rounders Telvin Nash and Jonathan Meyer are risks to get snapped up in the Rule 5 draft either. Nondrafted free agent R.J. Alaniz is also eligible, but his lack of strikeouts and mediocre results combined with average stuff make him a worthwhile gamble to leave off the 40-man as well. College players drafted in 2010 aren’t much different. Third-round outfielder Austin Wates and fourth-round righthander Bobby Doran are the kind of role players who generally slide right on through the Rule 5 draft. Eighth-round righthander Jake Buchanan may have a low ceiling, but he does have a track record of success and average secondary stuff to potentially help a club as a cost-controlled reliever. Lefthander Alex Sogard, a 26th-round pick in 2010, could also earn a 40-man spot, as he has plus stuff (92-94 mph fastball and a solid breaking ball at his best), even if it currently comes with well-below-average command. Really, the only players the Astros have to worry about protecting are a few of those they acquired in trade. Righthander Asher Wojciechowski, right fielder Domingo Santana and first baseman Jonathan Singleton are all sure-fire additions to the 40-man. Catcher Carlos Perez is probably worth adding as well—even though he passed through last year’s Rule 5 unselected—and if you wanted to be extra cautious, then lefthander David Rollins and his average stuff could also be protected. So Houston has three clear-cut additions to the 40-man roster as well as another five or six players they could protect if they are feeling cautious. Considering the state of the bottom of the Astros’ 40-man roster, they could find room to bring Springer up to the big leagues if they wanted to. But why should they? The reality is that when viewed dispassionately, there’s no real upside for the Astros to call up Springer right now. Sure, it would maybe sell a few more tickets, but Houston only has nine home dates left this year. Yes, it might help Springer get acclimated to the big leagues, but the entire 2014 season can serve that same role because the Astros aren’t going to be contending for a playoff spot next year.
Carlos Correa, Rio Ruiz, and Teoscar Hernandez are stepping up for Quad Cities as they're in a winner-take-all against Beloit tonight. They've all homered. Jordan Scott and Tony Kemp have 2 hits apiece, and Bobby Borchering is 3-3 as the River Bandits are up 7-1 in the 5th.
Could we move Springer down to Quad Cities, you know because I mean that playoff experience is where it's at
Tuesday Playoff Stories Win or go home. Tri-City back in the ship. Recap California League South Division Championship Series, Game 4: Lancaster 6, Inland Empire 1 in 10 innings Series tied 2-2. The defending California League Champions were locked in a pitchers' duel until their bats came alive in the extra frame and swamped the 66ers. Zach Borenstein broke a scoreless tie for Inland Empire in the 6th with an RBI triple. That turned out to be the 66ers' last hit of the game, as the Lancaster bullpen just shackled them. In the 8th, Joe Sclafani hit a double to kick off the inning and moved to 3rd on a Nolan Fontana sac bunt. Carlos Perdomo then hit an RBI double to tie the game. The deadlock continued into the 9th, with neither team doing much of note in that inning. Sclafani walked to lead off the 10th, then a pair of singles from Fontana and Perdomo loaded the bases. Andrew Aplin hit the go-ahead sac fly, while Fontana and Perdomo advanced a base. After M.P. Cokinos was intentionally walked to re-load the bases, Tyler Heineman ripped a 2-run double down the right field line. And one batter later, Brandon Meredith clubbed a 2-run double down the left field line to add to the cushion. He and Perdomo both went 3-4. Sclafani was 2-3 with 2 walks and 2 runs scored. Tom Shirley went 5 1/3 innings and allowed a run on 4 hits, walked 1, and struck out 2. Gerardo Sanchez wound up loading the bases in the 6th (on a walk and a hit batter with Shirley's runner on), but he got the final 2 outs of the inning, striking out 1. Jordan Jankowski fanned 1 in a 1-2-3 7th, Kenny Long got 2 outs in the 8th, Mike Hauschild walked 1 and struck out 2 in an inning of work (final out of the 8th and 2 outs in the 9th), and Travis Ballew struck out 1 over 1 1/3 perfect innings to end it. The series returns to The Hangar for the winner-take-all Game 5. A trip to the California League Championship is on the line. Kyle Smith will be on the mound, and his opponent for Inland Empire is TBA. First pitch is at 7:00. Midwest League Championship: Quad Cities vs. South Bend In Game 1 of this best-of-5 series, Chris Devenski will take on Braden Shipley. First pitch is at 6:05. The River Bandits last won the Midwest League in 2011, when they swept Lansing. The Silver Hawks were champions in 2005, when they beat Wisconsin. New York-Penn League Championship, Game 1: State College 2, Tri-City 1 in 11 innings State College leads 1-0. An error proved to be devastating as the ValleyCats dropped the opening game of the NYPL Championship Series. Evan Grills was just brilliant in this one. He went 8 innings and allowed a solo homer to Mason Katz in the 5th, one other hit, walked 1, and struck out 6. He induced 16 groundouts and 1 flyball out. Chris Munnelly pitched the next 2 innings without allowing a hit. He walked 1 and struck out 2. Edison Frias came on for the 11th. He allowed a single to Luis Perez to begin the inning, and then Jimmy Bosco came up to face him. That's when it went horribly wrong. Bosco hit one right back to Frias, who proceeded to throw the ball away. Perez wound up scoring the go-ahead run. Frias was able to prevent any further damage, but the ValleyCats went down in order in the bottom of the inning to end it. Brett Booth went 2-5 and scored on a sac fly from Brian Holberton in the 2nd. James Ramsay hit a double in the 1st. Michael Feliz will be on the mound for Game 2 of the Championship series. He will be taking on Nick Petree. First pitch is at 7:05 Eastern.
BA chat with John Manuel Lots of Astros-related questions today. Chris (Houston): Is Domingo Santana underrated as a prospect? 20 year old with tools in 2A. Is he top 100? John Manuel: I definitely was a bit light on him last year in the Astros top 10; I went for polish and had him at 11. He is toolsy, but the swing & miss concerns still are a there for me. He has right-field profile tools and righthanded power that teams seek, though, so I can still see a Jermaine Dye future for him. Should be a good big leaguer and a top 100 prospect in a loaded Astros system. Tim (Sarasota): With George Springer constantly getting the.... "What a great season but he strikes out too much" comments; what is the expectation/ comparison for him in the show.... Jay Bruce with speed? John Manuel: I'd start with a righthanded hitter for a comp. From the scouts to the stats, Springer feels like he'll be a mix of Mike Cameron and Matt Kemp. He probably will be a bit more offensive and not as elite defensively than Cameron, but the point of that comp is, unless he makes a major adjustment on the ball on the outer half and starts using the whole field, he's a five- or six-hole hitter, not a true three- or four-hole hitter on a championship team. When the Astros drafted him, I had a club official throw Kemp on Springer. That feels a bit high, but you know, that guy's a scout and I'm not, so I thought I should throw that in there. Alex (Houston): I love Bryon Buxton however George Springer nearly had a historic season. I get Springer still has an issue with Ks but 23 year old who improved when he moved to AAA seems like he had a better seasons. John Manuel: George Springer would have been a very defensible choice. In the end, as I said before, he just didn't have a ton of separation from the other power hitters. Javy Baez was a 37-home run shortstop who is three years younger than Springer. Sano had a similar power season; both those guys play infield, providing more defensive value. So for me, his season wasn't clearly better than those other years, and we obviously went in a different direction. But Springer had a pretty monstrous season, and it's exciting to watch his progression. Christian (Houston, TX): Did Buxton win over Springer simply because he is the better prospect with more glowing scouting reports at a younger age? Springer clearly outperformed him statistically, right? John Manuel: I just wanted to answer one more here because no, Springer did not clearly out-perform Buxton statistically. Buxton's competition was easier, low A and high A vs. Double-A and Triple-A. But Buxton was in less offensive environments and put up a .334-.424-.520 slash line. He out-hit Springer by 30 points, had a higher OBP (Springer's was .411) and out-stole him. He's a better defense. Springer slugged about 90 points higher, obviously hit more homers. But for me, their seasons were very similar in terms of what they produced on the field. Joe LeCates (Easton, MD): John, thanks for the chat today. A little bit of a loaded question given the POY announcement today, but comparing Correa and Buxton right now (and of course thinking toward the future), who do you take and how large is that gap? John Manuel: Glad you asked. Correa also is a fine candidate and had a great year. This guys sounds like a cross between Troy Tulowitzki and Aramis Ramirez. It's quite an explosive package of tools and skills, and it's not a yawning gap. Carlos Correa feels like a top 5-10 prospect in the game. I think JJ Cooper's favorite tidbit on Correa is that he led the Midwest League in fielding percentage at short. Usually we're talking about low Class A shortstops making 50 errors but Correa is a different animal. Jimbo (Houston): What are your thoughts on Rio Ruiz? John Manuel: Lot of Astros questions; had one on Preston Tucker as well where I'd say Tucker is a good organization player who could carve out a role as a Daryle Ward-type reserve, lefty power and limited defensive ability. Ruiz is obviously a different kind of guy, chance to be an everyday 3B. The Astros had strong conviction in his hitting ability in last year's draft, and he showed that as the year went on. They compared him to Eric Chavez coming out of high school, and that's still a comp that he could fulfill. He has the bat speed and strength to hit for average and power and made a nice adjustment with his front side leaking out as the season progressed. CR (Texas): If you were to re-due the to top 100, how many prospects would the Astros have on it? John Manuel: The Astros should challenge the Royals' record of nine top 100 players. Graduating Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Villar hurts that effort, but Correa, Appel, probably Singleton, Mike Foltynewicz, Lance McCullers Jr. ... gotta think that's six pretty clear guys, then the depth of the system could supply three more from the likes of Rio Ruiz, Domingo Santana, Vincent Velasquez . . . it's a deep system.
I don't know, despite the nice batting average DDJ's prospect status has taken a hit this year with the defensive questions and lack of power.
Well he mentioned there was 6 pretty clear guys, yet he only named 5, so I assume DDJ was already included.
John Manuel's argument on POY are crap. Springer didn't seperate himself from the other power hitters? So what? Did Buxton? They are both about more than one dimension, but they mostly judged Springer on power? Ask any major league GM what numbers they want their center fielder to have in an upcoming season. There's no way they'd chose Buxton's numbers over Springer's.
