These percentages are very interesting, but I am more interested to see how the percentages look in the play-offs, when teams turn up the defensive intensity and are less likely to give up easy baskets at the rim. Regular season stats are nice and all, but championships are won in the play-offs. And look at these gaudy at the rim percentages for the Nuggets. Didn't help them much in the postseason.
Don't agree with what? That there is ever a crossover point where you should take mid-range shots? Clearly if they are not guarding mid-range shots at all, and always trying to guard a rim shot then the points per shot on the mid-range would go up to exceed the points per shot at the rim. You'd be a fool not to take them, as you should be taking what the defense gives you. The only question is, how low can you drive the percentage of mid-range shots before that happens.
At the end of the day, its all about getting the best players and running the best plays to suit the best players. NOT, getting the best plays, and then get the players to suit your playing style. Shot selection is a by product of the plays you run, hence if your best players is Steve Curry, its best you continue shooting the 3, and if your best player is Aldridge, you shoot the mid J. If your best player is Howard? You better hope he is not shooting FTs.
It's a fact that mid-range shots are ineffcient but so are other plays. Postups, isolations, and PnR ball-handler can be just as inefficient as mid-range shots. Does that mean we should not implement into plays? Or should Morey tell Dwight we won't be posting him up for the sake of Moreyball? Rockets synergy stats last season: Houston offensive effciency was 0.96 PPP Dwight posted up 649 times with efficiency of 0.74 ppp We all know Harden didn't end up as a Rocket by Morey's design. Do you really think Harden adjusted his game because he is now playing for Morey?? You need to smell the coffee. The biggest reason we went away from mid-range shots wasn't because of Morey; it was Harden! The way Harden played for Rockets was exactly the same way ever since he came into the league! Harden shot location at rim and 3P: With Rockets: 67.3% With OKC (2011-12): astonishing 77.2% Harden actually shot less % at rim and 3's now than with OKC. With the bulk of offense came from him, Rockets were more of a Hardenball than a Moreyball team. It just happened that both Harden and Morey are about efficiency and some mistakenly thought it was due to Morey's influence. Repped for the truth!
Lol Then they they either take it to the basket for a higher percentage shot or kick it out to the perimeter. If a team dares and not defend the mid range at all then I can see jumpers but any team in the NBA is going to defend the mid range. It is what they live for. We were an elite offensive team last year by concentrating on the 3 and inside attack. This off season Morey has strengthened the ability to do this.
Lol Why not? Howard is among the best at drawing fouls besides Harden. The ability to draw a lot of fouls is a great thing. Teams that get into foul trouble tend to lose.
I think there is some misconception about Howard and foul shots. Last season Howard was a bad free throw shooter even by Howard's own standards. However shooting free throws he managed to produce 0.984 PPP. Which is good when compared to the NBA average PPP. There might be value in certain circumstances to employ a hack-a-Howard strategy, but even then it will not work unless the other team is shooting the lights out.
Lol Yes and there are other benefits at drawing fouls that help the whole team. Teams that get into foul trouble tend to have to back off defensively and thus create a stronger ability to drive lanes and score. When starters get into foul trouble they usually will need to sit for extended periods and then the back ups or scrubs have to come in. Howard, Harden, Lin, Parsons can have a lot of fun playing against the bench.
Exactly, more like Hardenball. If we were to miraculously win it all next season, what do you think would have needed to change / happen? Dwight and Harden meshing so immeasureably well? Lin playing at 2012FebLinsanity level through out the playoffs? Asik and Dwight becoming the meanest defensive duo in the league?
Actually it is a short list and it does not require anything dramatic. And not all of them have to happen for the Rockets to make a serious run in the playoffs. Lin has to play like he did the final 2 months of last season. Howard needs to get back to near where he was in the 2011-2012 season. Parsons needs to continue improving at around his current rate. The Rockets need to get 35% 3 point shooting and average defense out of TJ or D-Mo. Garcia needs to play at somewhere near the level he obtained in the OKC playoff series. Harden needs to have enough energy on defense to become an average defender. A couple of the new additions will have to make the rotation. Turnovers need to be limited to league average. There is nothing in the list that requires a miracle. I expect many of them to happen. The only question is if enough of them will happen.
This. It's not 3s Free Throws Shots at Rim It's Shots at Rim Free Throws 3s Just making those each individual strengths carry a higher volume and accuracy is what's dangerous.
Wow, you are great at selective reading. Anyhow, yes, getting opposition into foul trouble is a good thing, in fact, its a great thing. But then, if and its very likely, if the FTs does not goes in at the first couple of tries, it will start to create a mental block, Not only to Dwight, but to his team mates as well, should we pass him the ball etc etc. Having said that, if he makes the first few free throws, do you thing the opposition will continue fouling him intentionally?
Good discussion. Whether it is Hardenball or Moreyball the point is really moot. The bottom line is that getting to the rim and shooting 3s is a good thing. For those of you who say the Suns or other teams that have implemented this type of offense haven't won the finals you need to realize that DEFENSE also is a big contributing factor. If the Suns were an above average defensive team during those years I think they would have cruised to an NBA championship. When you have Howard protecting the rim this Rockets team can definitely be an above average or even top 10 defense. If they stay the highest scoring team in the league I think this is a formula for success. Take shots that produce the most PPS, and play good defense. It isn't rocket science folks..
The Rockets had the 7th best defense when Asik was on the floor last season, and the 27th best defense when Asik was not on the floor. It would not be a stretch to predict the Rockets having a top 5 defense when the paint is always protected by either Howard or Asik.
I think Moreyball is simply playing to a team's strengths as best as possible. Anylitics give information that which help make the best decisions in order to maximize overall production. I don't think Morey has any real preferred style, but Morey got the rockets to the playoffs, and got them financially sound with complete roster turnover and the youngest squad in the NBA. He knows how to maximize talent on the floor and how to get tremendous value out of 2nd round picks and rotation guys. All Morey has said all along he was trying to get star players to Houston, regardless of the fit. I don't think he was bull****ing.
We could get severely knifed behind the arc depending on how the Dwight/Omer combination goes. Our perimeter and transition D was terrible last season, largely thanks to all the unfamiliarity, lack of chemistry, and raw defenseiveplayers we had out there last year. Brewer should obviously help, pending on how much burn he actually gets. I believe with a slower pace Parsons, Harden, Lin, and Beverly will be able to play more disciplined an have more energy to spare. That to go along with natural development and the aforementioned chemistry. Last season was so crazy now that I'm reflecting more on it as this season looms. -Polarizing celebrity point guard that was snubbed by his old team and knows deep down he can be much more. -First time starting shooting guard who left(traded) the Finals runner-ups to a team that was middling and not very good and thought he was a super star(turned out he was) -2nd year small forward that happened to be the longest tenured rocket on the squad with a line drive shot -Rookie Lithuanian who can't stay on his feet, a former D-leaguer who can't stay on the floor long enough, and a rookie tweener that shoots too many 3's and is rumored to have a low motor -A giant 7 foot Turk with no hands, no offensive game, can't shoot, is shy of interviews, and apparently is worth more money (25MM) than minuted played per game last year(14.7). Amazing stuff. I thought McHale would have gone postal on Morey and Rossas for the roster he had right before the start of the season.
Lol Yes they will. If they are trying the hack a Dwight then that team is in trouble at the end of the game. The hack a whatever is an old tactic. If Dwight misses the 1st couple of FT's you bring in your best shooters to counteract it. Or if Howard pulled an Asik and makes the FT's the team wins anyway. It makes no difference if Howard is a good FT shooter. Just the ability to be able to draw FT's at a good clip is a huge advantage. Now the Rockets have two of the best at it. The scoring gets easier when your defender can't defend tightly.
The Rockets were only marginally worse than average in their defense beyond the arc last season. Perhaps there was much pain inflicted when Asik was sitting and the Rockets had to flood the lane to prevent attacks on the rim?
I agree that if these things happen the Rockets have a solid chance to win it all. I also agree that none of these are quite in the "miracle" range. The question is: which of these would be hardest to achieve? At first glance, and without checking any stats, I would argue that the last will be hardest to achieve. I think that Harden and Lin are both turnover prone, even when playing at near their maximum level. The second least likely to happen is for Garcia to play consistently like he did in the OKC series. I can't help but think that his performance in that series was an outlier. Is he really an A-level perimeter defender?
Good post. The Rockets had the worst TOR in the NBA at 14.9 turnovers per 100 possessions. The league average TOR was 13.7. Basically the Rockets would need to bring their TOR down by only 8% to reach league average. Probably doable with the expected slightly slower pace. It was a tale of 2 playoffs last season. For the first 4 games he had a +/- of -0.5. For the last 2 games he had a +/- of 3.0.Where is he realistically? Somewhere in between. But it is impossible to fake solid defense, especially against someone like Durant. I would view the least likely as TJ/D-Mo playing league average defense and reaching 35% from beyond the arc. However, the list does not have to be mostly complete at the beginning of the season. Just at the end of the season when the playoffs start. So the team has 82 games before it all needs to come together.
