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Let's talk about Chandler, Wilson

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by HMMMHMM, Aug 30, 2013.

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Wilson Chandler, yes or no?

  1. Yes.

    26.6%
  2. Yes, but only in a 6th man role of the bench/after adding a better piece.

    35.5%
  3. Yes, the Rockets need a guy with a neck tatoo.

    18.5%
  4. No.

    19.4%
  1. DraftBoy10

    DraftBoy10 Member

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    He'd fit in nicely. He's a 3 but he can play the small 4 very well; in NYK he was excellent as a weak-side help defender for blocks, and an impressive rebounder. At least during his small stint as a small 4-man.

    The thing is he might be really dumb? I don't think he's dumb as in JR smith or Marcus Morris stupid, but he's not too much higher and that may be an issue.

    I would welcome his addition. He'd be a finishing touch to our 5 man group of Dwight, Chandler, Harden, Lin. He can defend well, hit the 3 ball well and be our 2nd best rebounder.
     
  2. meh

    meh Member

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    That contract is UGLY for as long as capspace is of importance for us. And given that we can clear our capspace once again for 2015(assuming we don't re-sign Parsons first), I would think Morey would prefer someone who expires in 2 years instead.

    But if the Rockets do fill the cap somehow. Say trade Asik for Millsap, make Parsons RFA and give him $10mil, etc. Only then would Wilson Chandler's contract make some sense.
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Here's my question: Is Wilson Chandler really better than Hedo Turkoglu?
     
  4. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    I get that a David Lee is consistently, horribly overrated. Or a Ryan Andersen has some flaws. But Wilson Chandler over those guys??? C'mon!
     
  5. herro

    herro Member

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    Why are you comparing him to a bunch of power forwards?
     
  6. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Member

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    Because he played the majority of his minutes at the 4 last year and would likely do so here.

    Why do you think playing Chandler at the 4 is playing him out of position, though? He's played a great deal of his minutes over his career at the 4.

    Sure, he might not be able to guard some of the bigger PFs with potent post-games, but which one of those players is able to cover him? It's a simple defense for offense trade-off. It's (much) easier to help on/scheme around defending a big in the post than help a big covering a quicker player with perimeter skills and 3-point range. You can also hide Chandler on the less potent offensive big against a lot (most) teams.

    As for the rebounding, how big a priority is rebounding for the PF playing next to Dwight really?
    Chandler averaged 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes playing at a slightly slower pace than the Rockets did last year. 7.5/36 as a PF. Maybe that's a little less than ideal, but FWIW, on average Chandler actually out-rebounded his opponents while playing PF last year.

    Rashard Lewis was a slightly worse rebounder and got constantly out-rebounded by his PF counterparts and yet the Magic managed to reach the finals with Lewis as their starting PF. Could have won it if Jameer Nelson didn't get hurt.
    Obviously the Magic never reached the finals with Ryan Anderson or Brandon Bass as their starting PF.

    Lewis was a different player than Wilson Chandler is (Lewis wasn't quite as much a threat of the bounce, but a little better/more reliable spot up shooter, not as athletic or position versatile, not as good in transition and not as good a perimeter defender, but a little better guarding bigs and really good defending pick&rolls, underrated post-game vs SFs, not as good a ball-handler), but their (per 36) numbers are quite similar/comparable.

    Just saying. :)

    Ha. I would take Wilson Chandler over David Lee, yes. Again, I think Lee is just owed way too much money for what he'd bring to the table here and I just don't think he's a great fit next to Dwight.

    Ethan Sherwood Strauss, who covers the Warriors and IMO is one of the best writers/basketball minds working for ESPN (I'd recommend following him on Twitter), has been advocating for the Warriors get rid of Lee (and go small) for a while now. I agree with him, obviously.

    Again, if Chandler isn't good enough to be your starter, that's ok. He's cheap enough that you can always use him as a 6th man off the bench. Once you trade for David Lee, you are pretty much stuck with him (as your starting PF).

    Ryan Anderson I'm just way down on from watching him a ton with the Magic. It's not that he sucks, to be sure. I may irrationally dislike him, in fact. I just think he's too limited to get you to the promised land.

    Anderson is a slightly more potent and realiable Patrick Patterson with better rebounding and worse D.
    Meanwhile, Chandler -- even if his production drops off slightly -- is somwhere between Paul Millsap and Danny Granger, if if his per minute production stays about the same playing 30 min+. I just think that's a better match for this team.

    To make a bad football analogy, QB Anderson is pretty good and rather accurate when protected well. If he doesn't get protected however, he's presents no running threat at all and he has only (below) average pocket presence.
    On the other hand you have QB Chandler, who may not be quite as accurate when protected, but can escape the pocket with ease and make people miss with his feet in the open field.
    Matt Schaub or Cam Newton, which one would you rather have from here on out?

    And that's ignoring that Chandler is more probable to be(come) available for cheap.
    You probably need to trade away your best trade chip (Asik) to get Anderson. You may be able to get Chandler by trading Lin, who's trade value I would guess to be marginal.

    Anyway, this wasn't meant to be a "why the Rockets should trade for Wilson Chandler" thread, if that wasn't clear. I just wanted to get folks viewpoints on Chandler and see if y'all would want him on this team and if so under what circumstances/in what role.
    (Really, this was a cleverly disguised "Lin for Wilson Chandler, yes?" thread. I'm a little surprised nobody pointed this out. :p)

    I understand that Chandler's contract would prohibit the Rockets from becoming players in free agency in 2015, if they couldn't find a taker for him, which very well might be reason enough for the Rockets to not consider trading for Chandler, unless they trade for a better piece first.

    Not sure Paul Millsap is that piece, though. Not if the Rockets stance against adding 2015 salary of non-core players/All-Star caliber players is a real thing anyway.
    Since Millsap's contract expires in 2015, you still could go after Love/LMA after trading for Millsap. Not if also trade for Chandler, though.
    Now, if you were to add 2015 salary anyway (e.g. Ilyasova), both D-Mo and Jones suck and Asik/Howard can't co-exist, then sure, it might make sense to add Chandler as well.

    Thing is, I'm not sure I totally buy that the Rockets will wait for two more years to add Love or LMA.
    I suppose they might be willing to, if none of the the guys they like becomes available, but I'm quite sure they'd much prefer to add a quality piece or two now and add contributors via draft, trade and free agency (via MLE) and give up quite a lot to do so.

    I think you know that I jumped on your Hedo2Houston bandwagon and Hedo might give you more bang for the buck (if signed with the room MLE), but I don't think it's reasonable to think Hedo will be as good as Chandler at this point of his career.
    He's never been a particular good defender. I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to be as much a potent as scorer as Chandler is. He doesn't give you much on the boards and his play making ability, while valuable, is somewhat redundant on a team with Harden. "Ball", remember. :)

    Hedo obviously would leave you flexible going forward, as he wouldn't impact your 2015 cap space, which is why I agree with you, that, if nothing else, he'd be a nice short fix.

    I don't think WP is a particular good stat. It seems to overrate rebounding, shooting efficiency and gives players no credit for shot creation, thus heavily favoring low usage players, especially low usage bigs and spot-up shooters. Obviously doesn't/can't really account for defense, either.

    This leads to ridiculous rankings such as DeAndre Jordan being ranked higher than Al Horford or Amir Johnson, Reggie Evans and JJ Hickson ahead of Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard.
    Thabo Sefolosha is ranked third among SGs in WP. 1st in WP/48... Calderon is top-5 in both WP and WP/48. George Hill ahead of Tony Parker in WP and WP/48.

    It's just a flawed stat (as are all stats made up of box-score and play-by-play data, for that matter). It might be somewhat useful if put into proper context, but you won't be able to convince me that Omri Casspi is a better player or fit for this team than Wilson Chandler. Maybe Casspi turns out to be better a value (production/$), but I wouldn't feel comfortable at all with Casspi starting or coming off the bench in a 6th/7th man role.
     
    #26 HMMMHMM, Aug 31, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2013
  7. rolyat93

    rolyat93 Member

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    And ability to play defense at all.

    Quick, tell me a position where Marcus Morris is considering an average defender.
     
  8. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Did a good job on Harden when HOU lost to PHX
     
  9. crash5179

    crash5179 Member

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    I became a Wilson Chandler fan when he was in NY and thought he was a better player than Gallo at the time. I have since become a big fan of Gallos game bu...

    Wilson Chandler is easily worth his contract IMO and I would take him on my team any day. I think he is a terrific two way player that is only a 6th man right now because Denver has Gallo and Faried at the forward positions ahead of him.
    Plus he is a good rebounder for his position and shoots a high percentage on 3s. He did shoot .250 a couple of years ago but he only played 8 games that season so it was a very tiny sample size that year.

    I don't know how the Rockets could get Wilson but he teaming him with Parsons and Garcia would give the Rockets 3 players that can swing between SG/SF/PF at a very high level. There would be scenarios that those three would all be on the floor together.
     
  10. rolyat93

    rolyat93 Member

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    So you're saying he can defend SG's?:p
     
  11. Canadiandude

    Canadiandude Member
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    They were comparable, overall, but we're talking about two players whose careers are trending in opposite directions.
     
  12. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Remember when Momo called himself "Melo with Defense" during his rookie intro press conference? Well, he ain't Melo as far as I can tell, but his defense in 2012-13 is actually pretty solid, aside from being a little too skinny against most PFs.

    Anyhow, Morey traded him (along with others) mostly to open up cap room to chase Dwight Howard. I wouldn't mind having him or Patterson back. These guys can at least competently eat up 20-25 PF minutes without causing a disaster too often (which is still a concern with Jones, DMo and to an extent Smith-- though hopefully these guys get better like Morris did in his 2nd year).
     
    1 person likes this.
  13. Pete the Cheat

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    I voted no simply because the guy can't stay healthy.

    But I am completely in favor of small ball, and Chandlers game would fit this roster well. Good topic OP
     
  14. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    I've always thought he was a great player.

    Bring him in at the 3 and make parsons the stretch 4.

    Not sure what third team we'd need to bring in though. What does Denver need? A 2?
     
  15. crash5179

    crash5179 Member

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    Both Mook and Pat were exactly what Morey said he does not want... flash players. They can put up really good looking stats one game and completely disappear for the next 5 games. I would have zero interest in either of those guys as of now. Neither of them were effective defenders at the 4 position, even if they were in the right spot. Neither of them were particularly good rebounders.

    Wilson Chandler is a better defender than both, just as good of a rebounder and better on offense than both. Plus he is a proven 3pt shooter.
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Would I prefer WChandler to Morris and Patterson? Sure. But he is more expensive and less likely to be available as far as I can tell. Not to say that SAC or PHX will move these guys for a lowish price but it seems more likely right now than Denver moving Chandler.

    The question is whether I would prefer Morris or Patterson over the likes of Jones and Motiejunas. I would. These guys can at least consistently get to the right spots and hit the outside shot at a decent rate-- skills that this team needs at the PF spot. Jones and Motiejunas may be able to improve and do it next year but for now they are not even at the level that Patterson and Morrris were at last season.

    The team really doesn't need any of its PFs to score 15+ or 12+ points every game-- he won't get enough shots to do so-- just shoot when open and convert those at a reasonable rate. Also no need for high rebound rate with either Omer or Dwight on the floor for 48 minutes (and Camby for insurance). Both have been on teams that are top 5 in the NBA in DReb% even without PFs getting many rebounds. The PF just needs to make the correct rotation, contest shots and block out and Dwight or Omer will clean up.


    Anyhow, you know who is better than Morris and Patterson and likely to be available without much cost?

    [​IMG]

    I prefer Hedo to both of them.
     
    #36 Carl Herrera, Aug 31, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2013
  17. rogower

    rogower Member

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    I think that Morey believes he can either a) do better than Wilson Chandler or b) get comparable production (for a lot less money) from dudes already on the roster.

    However, if his statistical model tells him that Chandler is a good guy to get, then the trade would likely be this, in my opinion:

    Wilson Chandler to Houston
    Jeremy Lin to Milwaukee
    Caron Butler and a second round pick (via Houston) to Denver

    Milwaukee likely only traded for Butler to get to the team salary floor now required by the collective bargaining agreement, and views Lin as a big upgrade at PG.

    Denver would be looking to dump Chandler's contract. If Denver wants more than this sort of package for Chandler then I think they will be disappointed.

    I don't see this happening but maybe Morey is higher on Chandler than I think. I am sticking to my Ersan Ilyasova for Lin, Donatas Motiejunas, and Kostas Papanikolaou prediction.
     
  18. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Why would Denver want to dump Chandler's reasonable contract? Are they in danger of paying the tax? Will it help them gain the cap room to chase a star FA?

    They need him especially with Gallinari injured and Iguodala having left. He is gonna play plenty of minutes for them and more than justify his salary.
     
  19. rogower

    rogower Member

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    You may be right. I feel like I can usually figure out what teams are trying to do based on the sorts of moves they make and their payroll situation. I can't say that I have a good feel for what Denver is trying to do. They gave J.J. Hickson and Timofey Mozgov relatively hefty three-year deals this summer and they stupidly traded Kostas Koufos for the worthless Darrell Arthur this summer. Maybe they agree with you. I don't think they're going to be very good this season. Regardless, I don't see Houston trading for Chandler.
     
  20. WinkFan

    WinkFan Member

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    I don't think we need to tie up 6-7 million for another average guy.
     

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