give me one team that has won a chip in NBA history and had their offense focused entirely on shots at the rim and threes, so almost no midrange shots (like the rockets).
The goal is to maximize points during the game, not to maximize points per shot. That means that periodically you have to take a lower expected value shot in order to keep the defense honest and maximize your overall points. While the Rockets are clearly working on a 3pt and at the rim system, they have to fire at least an occasional two point shot or their overall effectiveness at the two other shots would drop and the expected value for those shots would fall. I wonder if anyone has studied what the percentage of midrange shots should be to maximize the overall point value during the course of the game. How much further can the Rockets take the system, or are they already at the point of diminishing returns?
Saying that Superstar is more important than any <insert strategy, chemistry, role player x, philosophy, etc. etc. etc.> is basically saying water is wet. So if you believe philosophy has nothing to do with Miami winning, then we might as well not have a discussion because the Rockets don't have Lebron. Therefore we can't win, right?
Good point. Morey is constructing the Rockets to get to the foul line, shoot at the rim, play defense (the Rockets were 7th in the league when Asik was on the floor - expect better when Howard is occupying the center position), and shoot 3 point shots. I think the data makes much of that clear.
2012-2013 LM Aldridge 3-23 foot FGM=439 FGA=1020 PPS=0.86 Tim Duncan 3-23 foot FGM=381 FGA=920 PPS=0.83 ZBo 3-23 foot FGM=276 FGA=716 PPS=0.77 Pau Gasol 3-23 foot FGM=168 FGA=430 PPS=0.78 David Lee 3-23 foot FGM=301 FGA=728 PPS=0.83 Al Jefferson 3-23 foot FGM=395 FGA=921 PPS=0.86
I don't understand. The Rockets have two of the best dribble drive perpetrators in the league (Lin and Harden), one of the best corner 3 point shooters in the league (Parsons > 50% on corner threes) and perhaps the best at the basket finisher in the league (Howard). The best % of mid range shots? Obviously 0%. But that figure is obviously unobtainable. I have a feeling that we will see how far down Morey can drive it next season.
Not saying that, I'm saying that that system was successful not because of the three point shooting they had, but because they had Lebron the best player on the world. That is not a fair playing field, the sytems should be debated with the talent level on the teams being fairly equal.
You should look at the evolution of LBJ as a player. His shot chart is starting to look like Hardens. In recent seasons he has severely limited his 2 point shots.
Admittedly 3pt and Rim are conveniently far from each other, so tougher to defend both of them. Nonetheless, on an individual player basis knowing that Harden or Lin would never try for an open two would make guarding them easier. It would have the effect of lowering their points per at the rim. If, on the other hand, they occasionally go for the mid-range shot, it would force defense to operate differently and increase their points per shot at the rim. The question is where the crossover point comes... how often do they need to do take the lower percentage shot to keep the points per shot at the rim higher.
The Rockets did not ignore the mid range shot last season, they took almost one out of every five shots between 9 and 23 feet away from the basket.
The league is evolving, due to advanced stats and the technology relied upon to generate these advanced stats. That's the point. Obviously teams from the not so distant past predate these developments. Did you watch the NBA Finals last year? Go back and watch a Finals from 10-15 years ago. Hell, look at how San Antonio has completely changed the way they play over this time frame. They are at the forefront. Hopefully, Houston surpasses them. Back to Miami... they are especially good because, despite Pat Riley's poor job at surrounding Lebron with good young talent and undervalued veterans (e.g., Carlos Delfino last season), they are running the layups-threes-free throws system very well (obviously it helps to have Lebron) AND they play spectacular defense. I wonder if Houston expects Ronnie Brewer, a strong defender, to play more minutes (with Chandler Parsons at "power forward") than Rockets fans expect, so as to upgrade the team defense. I bet he covets Kwahi Leonard. What a ballplayer! If Terrence Jones can develop into an excellent defender and into a solid (35% or so) three-point shooter, the Rockets have the "power forward" they want.
Yup, but you (and more importantly Morey) would probably advocate pushing the percentage of mid-range shots lower. The question is, how low can it go? It undoubtedly varies by player as well as for the team overall, but I imagine the percentage may need to be higher in the playoffs than in the regular season because defenses have more time to gameplan and study the tendencies of individual players... so that crossover point where you take some two point shots to keep your points per shot at the rim high is probably at a different place than it is during the regular season. But I don't know if anyone has examined that question.
Again, you're just arguing for the sake of it without any point. Even the Rockets had 20% of their shots from mid-range. So yeah, no duh no team has done it. But if you want championship teams whose philosophy is inside-out trying to get points near the rim and the 3pt line, just ask tinman for tapes of the Rockets 2 championships. And Rudy T's philosophy that Hakeem should be surrounded by volume 3pt shooters.
No. They won because Lebron is so good at driving to the basket that the Spurs said f*** it, we're just going to leave him open and let him shoot. Lebron is far and away the best finisher(percentage+volume) inside the paint in the game. He's so god damn awesome the Spurs literally felt they had no other way to contain him. You think the Spurs would do that for any player with a jumpshot but no ability to get to the rim?
LBJ is the best in this generation of NBA players. And maybe the best ever. If you are going to play the Heat for the championship you had better bring a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense to the series. The Rockets could conceivably do that next season.
No Don't agree. Morey so far this off season has shown by the players he has gotten to be stay the course like we played last year. As Bickerstaff said in the article recently the team philosophy is to play the best players. All the players we have except for Asik scores adeptly taking it to the basket and some are good 3 pointers and even a few are good at both. They will continue to take a high number of 3 pointers and attack the basket. They pretty much have to with the players they have. Howard and Harden are among the tops in the NBA at drawing fouls so we will be shooting FT's a lot more.
