We all get that Morey is a stats guru. He has redesigned the roster to reflect his image as to what he thinks a NBA team should look like. But how much further is his influence spreading into the team as a whole? Today I am focusing on shot selection. What do we know about shot selection? Foul shots are great. At the rim is good. Three point shots are good. Mid range shots are very very bad. Usually I categorize shots as less than 8 feet, mid range and three point shots. This article focuses on the at the rim shots, three to 23 feet shots and three point shots. How can a shot from five feet be bad? Well let us see. The first graph shows the at the rim shots taken by every team in the league. The league FG% on these shots is 64.6%. <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/Dztf6TQiVKDeFApMadWMc9mlsV5ovQZ_eoL6dsxSjTc?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-h3IFXerRDVg/UiFGDa486yI/AAAAAAAAALk/RBBB1LKNhKY/s400/At%2520the%2520Rim.jpg" height="173" width="400" /></a> Houston took 37.8% of their shots at the rim last season. Mid range shots are bad. Let me repeat that. Mid range shots are bad. Houston was by far and away the best team at minimizing mid ranged shots. The fact that a 4 foot mid range shot is almost as bad as a 22 foot mid ranged shot took me by surprise. The league FG% for shots between 3 and 23 feet is about 39%. Houston took a league least 26.1% of bad shots between 3 and 23 feet. The league average for these shots is about 42.5% of total shots. <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/GSaNtX5Du0Z5ban1bzf_S9mlsV5ovQZ_eoL6dsxSjTc?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XBVJzZlTUF0/UiFGJ_k2nGI/AAAAAAAAAL0/itUh6jRJIhU/s400/Mid%2520Range.jpg" height="151" width="400" /></a> Next in the list is three point shots. These are very good shots trailing only free throws and at the rim shots in effectiveness. Houston was second in the league to NYK in the number of three point shots taken. They had an eFG% of 54.9%. The league average eFG was 53.8%. <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/dJGdeoPjnAnUycjr0zVv-NmlsV5ovQZ_eoL6dsxSjTc?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-PoLEph7JPRM/UiFGOjhBkeI/AAAAAAAAAMI/WsZWay-f1CM/s400/3%2520Point%2520Shots.jpg" height="136" width="400" /></a> What to expect next season? The subtraction of Patterson and the addition of Howard should well auger for a reduction of mid range shots and an addition to the percentage of shots at the rim and three point shots. The Howard effect on offense should not be underestimated. Those interior passes that Asik could not catch will be limited. And teams cannot leave Howard to stop the dribble drive penetration like they did with Asik. More Moreyball.
This experiment hasn't really been that successful up to this point. If the Rockets win a chip they would be the first team to do so that shoots so many threes and shots at the rim. Don't forget that previous champions and other good teams have diversified their offense. Take the Spurs for an example. You never know what they will do next.
The article did not intend to make future performance projections. It dealt only with Morey's influence on shot selection. He did after all rank shots in descending order : Foul shots; At the rim shots; 3 point shots; Mid range shots. I was attempting to show the extent of his influence on the Rockets shot selection. This is the expected value for shots last season for the Rockets: Fouls 1.56 At the rim 1.28 3 point shots 1.09 3-23 foot shots 0.78
Miami won 2 championships and their entire philosophy is to get as many 3pt shooters as possible. 5 rotation players on that team(Battier, Allen, Lewis, Miller, Chalmers) shot more from behind the arc than inside it.
Heat's success had more to do with LeBron than their philosophy or role players. Suns attempted the most 3's and at incredible % of .399 from 2005-2007, they couldn't even reach the Finals. You can go back for the last decade, NO teams that led the league in 3PA or 3P% had ever reached the Finals....that's 18 teams in total! MDA was the first coach who understood the importance of shot location value and fully implemented into game plans, with on purpose in mind--shoot the most 3's at highest efficiency. Other teams had followed suit but historically speaking, it had little success.
that had more to do with them having Lebron then anything else, take out Lebron and they don't win anything. and don't forget this team was one free throw away from losing
A cross thread post. Who would want to make the roster sacrifices necessary to pay LMA $16 million a year when his PPS is much less than the Rockets team PPS on 3 pointers. Oh yes, 1.16 PPS for the Rockets 3 point shooters versus 0.86 PPS for Aldridges 3-23 foot mid range shots. For $6 million sure. But that is his true value versus his $16 million perceived value.
A cross thread post. Who would want to make the roster sacrifices to pay LMA $16 million a year when his PPS is much less than the Rockets team PPS on 3 pointers. For $6 million sure. But that is his true value versus his $16 million perceived value. He shot no 3 pointers and his 3-23 foot mid range shots averaged 0.86 PPS. The Rockets roster as a whole averaged 1.16 PPS on 3 point shots.
depends on what we're trading, for Lin and Asik obviously. And that's the wrong way to look at. His PPS his lower because he takes contested shots because he is that team's offense and second a three is worth 50%more than a midrange. I know that the three is better than the long two, but that should not mean we should just completely not take the shot. Past championship teams and legendary players usually have had that shot in their arsenal.
4 foot mid ranged shots are likely hotter contested than 22 foot mid ranged shots. You have to take into account openness when analyzing field goal locations. Also, does those 4 feet mid range shots take into consideration floaters? Tony Parker proves that it's possible to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from 4 feet.
Lol. "Analysis." Have you considered submitting your articles to Yahoo Contributor Network so more people can read your analysis?
Does that have anything to do with the final analysis? If the defense is quicker to react to mid range shots (that might seem obvious because the floor is more congested as you get closer to the basket) isn't that just figured into the FG%? I used a whole seasons of data, and I would expect it to be statistically significant.
Hmm... based on the fact that the Spurs got to the Finals via exactly the formula the author here suggests, my guess is that they'll keep doing what they did last year, when they nearly beat Miami, who also employ this formula, along with excellent defense that leads to fast breaks and, that's right, even more shots at the rim. Hopefully, Houston gets even better at deploying this strategy than SA and Miami!
You are absolutely right. However Morey has taken the Rockets well beyond those teams as far as shot selection goes. We will see how it works out. From a statistical standpoint it makes perfect sense.
That's a good presentation by the OP. I don't think it will help the people who don't get it, though, because you still see people post stuff like this: Yeah, the Suns attempted the most 3s. If the Morey philosophy was " shoot a lot of 3s" then this would be a good comparison. However, the Suns in 06-07 were 12th in shots at the rim and last in free throw attempts, despite their 3rd ranked pace. Shots at the rim and free throws are important parts of Morey's philosophy. Also the Suns were at best average on defense.
I know of no source for FG% from 4 feet. The closest I have data for is 3-9 feet. But here: <a href="https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/JHlDC7dA-3XyTPousp2I0NmlsV5ovQZ_eoL6dsxSjTc?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-sJzpVDS7sA0/UiFiXOVKO4I/AAAAAAAAAMw/PmQPfU7PVps/s400/3-9%2520feet.jpg" height="400" width="190" /></a>
