Where Do the Rockets Go From Here – The Power Forward Position

The problem with your argument is that Ersan Ilyasova has a pretty good rebound rate. Slightly better than Lamarcus Aldridge's in 2012-13, in fact.

I will again point out that if Omer Asik isn't traded, we are going to see him and Dwight Howard playing together at least eight minutes/game and probably more. I do think Houston and Milwaukee will work out a Jeremy Lin-for-Ilyasova deal eventually (they are presumably haggling over other players/assets to be involved) in which case we will be able to compare the results of Howard-Asik and Howard-Ilyasova (and Asik-Ilyasova, for that matter) lineups. A big man rotation of Howard-Asik-Ilyasova is formidable!

 

Checking back this thread after a week, and you are still making the same point again and again without actually countering our argument.

I'm not sure if you'll ever understand what many of us are saying:
The 3pt shots give you much better PPS because they are mostly open shots, the mid-range shots give you much better PPS because they are mostly contested shots. By the time a 3pt shot is actually attempted in an NBA game, that offensive possession was already in an very favorable position. On the other hand, a contested mid-range shot is attempted often because the offense fails to create an open 3pt shot before time is running out. Therefore the lumped up stat of PPS of 3pt vs 2pt shots is conditioned upon relatively successful vs unsuccessful offensive possessions. That's basically biased sampling in statistical term.

In other words, you are able to get more 3pt shots off in a ball game BECAUSE OF good offensive efficiency, not that you force more 3pt shots in a ball game RESULTING IN good offensive efficiency.

 

Sorry, a typo is corrected.

 

You are saying this as if you know that trade talks are on-going between Houston and Milwaukee. I'd love for you to be right. Do you have some insider info that I haven't heard about yet???

 

Ha, ha. No, I'm just making an inference here.

 

Why would Milwaukee want to trade Ilyasova? They don't need Asik because they just extended Larry Sanders. And Lin isn't much of a hot trade commodity. I don't think we have what the Bucks want.

 

The Bucks aim to make the playoffs but their starting PG right now is Brandon Knight. Lin appears to be a fairly significant upgrade over Knight (although Knight is still very young and has strong character/work ethic). Also, they are very high on John Henson and would like to carve out way more minutes for him. Ultimately, I just get the feel that they've never fully appreciated what Ilyasova brings to the table. Oh, and they signed Carlos Delfino, and just drafted the Greek kid with the impossible name at #15 overall, and he's also a SF. My understanding is that Milwaukee is also interested in this Greek kid whose rights were acquired by Houston in the Thomas Robinson trade with Portland.

In other words, a Lin-for-Ilyasova swap (with other parts involved, e.g., Donatas Motiejunas, the rights to the Greek kid, a Bucks second rounder) just makes too much sense to not happen at some point between now and roster deadline day in late October. I also think we'llsee Greg Smith traded before final fifteen man rosters are due for a second round pick. These two trades get the roster down to 17 guys, which means Jordan Henriquez and a wing player (probably Reggie Williams, in my opinion) get cut.

My proposed roster when the regular season begins:

Starting lineup

Patrick Beverly
James Harden
Chandler Parsons
Ersan Ilyasova
Dwight Howard

Rotation guys

Omer Asik
Isaiah Canaan
Terrence Jones
Francisco Garcia or Ronnie Brewer

End of the bench

Francisco Garcia or Ronnie Brewer
Omri Casspi
Marcus Camby
Aaron Brooks

Stashed in the developmental league

Robert Covington
B.J. Young

 

I would love to find out that we're talking Lin and parts for Ilyasova. I think a deal like that not involving Asik makes us championship contenders. However I don't think Milwaukee is interested in dealing Ilyasova. Everything I have heard is that they are planning on building around Ilyasova. It appears he's their cornerstone.

 

They just gave Larry Sanders upwards of $40 mil, so that makes him the face of the franchise, in my book. Also, Ilyasova averaged less than 30 minutes/game last season. I think if they are offered a nice package for Ilyasova (e.g., Jeremy Lin, Donatas Motiejunas, and the rights to Kostas Papanikolau) then they'll bite.

 

Statistically, it's true that 3 point shots are more efficient than 2 point shots. In the past decade, the teams that led the league in 3P attemps or 3P % had NEVER made it to the Finals.

An offense that avoids midrange 2's by design becomes what I call "gimick offense." Teams NEED midrange shots to win close games, and most games in PO's are close. During final minutes, defense is always set and intensity up a notch after timeouts, giving offense less chance of any kind open shots. Down by a point or up by a point, scoring is all that matters. Efficiency of shots are directly proportional to the distance to the rim. Teams, like the Rockets of last season, who avoided midrangers will have problem scoring in the final minute.

Do you wonder why Rockets can't win close games and Blazers, on the other hand, won more close games than others?

We absolutely need a player like LMA, who can consistently hit his midrangers, to go deep in the playoffs. His value becomes tenfold in close games!

 

Sanders also averaged less than 30. It doens't prove anything really.

Bucks absolutely saw Ilyasova as a cornerstone to their future when they signed him for a 5-year contract under the new CBA. Correct me if I am wrong, I believe every team can only sign two 5-year contracts under the new CBA.

Keep in mind that this is also the franchise that let Ellis walk for nothing and didn't offer Jennings any contract. Bucks isn't an organization that gives out long contracts easily.

 

Rocketsfan4 has been suggesting that it's better for a 4 to shoot a mid range shot than a three pointer because the higher number of offensive rebounds that the mid-range-shooting 4 will get will more than compensate for the lower points per shot. I don't buy this argument. Ryan Anderson, for instance, was sixth in the league in offensive rebounds in 2011-2012 the same year he led the league in three pointers made and attempted. Plus he was playing alongside the rebound hog of Dwight Howard. When teams shoot a lot of threes, there are a lot of long rebounds.

 

How about that Drew Gooden contract? The John Salmons contract? I think the Bucks are also the team that gave Johan Petro, who has been a good player for a grand total of zero minutes and zero seconds for his entire NBA career, his big contract. There are other examples. The Bucks haven't been a cheap franchise under Herb Kohl. Monta Ellis was and is one of the league's most inefficient players and a member of a (thankfully) dying breed of player (think Allen Iverson), while Brandon Jennings had worn out his welcome, and isn't worth the money or trouble. Those guys were discarded for good reasons.

In any event, maybe you're right, we'll see.

 

Right. And Ersan Ilyasova's rebound rate last year was better than the beloved Lamarcus Aldridge's. Also, is there evidence that Aldridge is better at shooting mid-range jumpers than Ilyasova or Anderson? I doubt it.

 

Just to play devil's advocate against my own argument: surely a big reason Anderson got so many offensive rebounds that year was that Howard was drawing double teams.

But the point is: even if we assume that offensive rebounds go down slightly for stretch 4s, that is more than made up for by the higher points per shot attempt and better spacing that allows slashers to attack the basket. (Especially for a team with Houston's offensive personnel.)

 

They were signed under the old CBA. Big difference. Free-spending on FA's and long bad contracts are distant memories.

If a deal came around Dec 15 last year, which was the his first eligible date for trade, maybe there was a chance to acquire Ilyasova for cheap. He had a terrible start and many Bucks fans were calling his head after he just signed his long contract. I've been calling for Ilyasova for the longest but by looking at Bucks roster, the opportunistic window is closed for now.

Bucks need a future PG but not at the cost of creating a new problem at PF position. Lets hope Henson plays out of his mind early on, which could possibly make Ilyasova expandable by trade deadline.

 

You make an excellent point. If Ryan can be 6th in the league in offensive rebounds just getting weakside putbacks....what do you think Asik could do??

You guys keep talking about "automatic double on Dwight" with Asik on the floor. I still say...let them try it.

 

The answerat the PF spot......

Illy, Anderson, Horford.......I prefer Horford over Illy and I think Anderson is overvalued.


Horford makes the most sense for both teams ans ATL already wants Asik. Its the best fit for both Atlanta and Houston

Houston line-up:

Lin
Harden
Parsons
Horford
Howard

Atlanta line-up:

Teague/Lin? ??
Williams
Korver
Milsap
Asik

I think a trade involving Lin for Teague is possibly an option...

Horford/Teague for Asik/ Lin.....