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Where Do the Rockets Go From Here – The Power Forward Position

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jtr, Aug 15, 2013.

  1. jtr

    jtr Member

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    LOL I do have to admire the spunk of your post even if I completely disregard its content. I am not by any means forecasting that Howard and Asik will not play together. I am just saying that their time together on the court will be held to a minimum. 5-6 minutes a game on the season average. 22 minutes for the season for Asik, assuming that Howard is not hurt. And you realistically have provided no supporting evidence to the contrary. Did you roll them bones to arrive at your conclusions? Did you consult a palm reader? I on the other hand have cited completely specific ideas to back up my thesis. I have never just said "You are wrong" and left it at that. You on the other hand ...
     
  2. jtr

    jtr Member

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    I highly recommend that you watch several times

    <iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/6S1RK4mA134?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    And this one for an explanation of why 6 men (3 offense and 3 defense) do not work in the paint

    <iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Hm_H1VmWQc0?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    Also you might want to check out http://www.nba.com/video/channels/n...ew-houston-rockets-pick-n-roll.nba/index.html

    And I would love to see tape where the picked 2 going under is slower getting to the paint than the 5. That would certainly blow up almost any pick and roll in the NBA today.

    You might additionally want to consult http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pick_and_roll. If the two goes under the screen he is step for step with the ball handler.

    Or http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_tv/2013/03/25/20130325-defend-thunder-pick-roll.nba/index.html.
     
    #222 jtr, Aug 20, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2013
  3. luckytxn

    luckytxn Member

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    wow


    Wow. harden looks like a good player. :eek:
     
  4. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I recommend you drop the attitude because you are making a fool out of yourself



    Duhhhhhhh! We're talking about the 2 going OVER, not UNDER. Why on earth would you think the 2 was going under.

    You don't know what you are talking about.
     
  5. RocketsWin

    RocketsWin Member

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    I agree. The original poster doesn't have a clue. His argument weakens by the day.
     
  6. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    How does 2 big man wins with a penetrating guard?
    Lets see the last 10 seasons, unless you consider bosh as a stretch 4/5. I counted 3 teams in the last 10 seasons to win with a stretch 4/5. And other than spurs at 05, the other 2 teams do not have ball dominant guards.

    So is spacing still an issue for you?

    2013 - Lebron and Bosh
    2012 - Lebron and Bosh
    2011 - Dirk and Chandler
    2010 - Bynum and Gasol
    2009 - Bynum and Gasol
    2008 - Garnett and Perkins
    2007 - Duncan and Oberto
    2006 - Shaq and Haslem
    2005 - Duncan and Horry
    2004 - Wallace and Wallace

    I believe you would than counter that times have change, then looking at last season, all 4 teams in the conference finals do not have a stretch 4. Heat wins with Lebron playing inside, not by Lebron shooting the 3.

    I do agree that Howard and Asik will be an offensive negative as neither poccess the ability to play the high post, but 3p shooting is not the most important skill set for a PF. And their defensive work will far out weight any offensive negative.
     
  7. RocketsWin

    RocketsWin Member

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    Looks like the original poster finally gave up. Lol
     
  8. Scorpio-IV

    Scorpio-IV New Member

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    Very nice post jtr. Helps an average fan like me understand the fit/lack of fit better. Appreciate the post.
     
  9. jtr

    jtr Member

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    I check back in occasionally when someone else promotes the thread. And still no one has made a succinct argument as to why the Rockets would give up 0.3 pps for a 2 point shooting PF, especially when they have a 1.3+ pps pick and roll big man. There is no arguement that a space eating 2 point shooting interior big man fits in the Rockets offensive flow. Even a great 2 point shooting big man like LMA falls far below the Rockets productivity from 3 point range last season. 0.85 pps versus 1.15 pps. Why would you ever go with the 2 point mid and long range shot?
     
  10. JBar

    JBar Rookie

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    Thanks to JTR for the hard work he put into this thread. Some very interesting stats. One question for you: earlier, when you were asked who would be a good 4 to go after, you said you couldn't think of anyone except maybe Love. What do you have against Ilyasova and Anderson?
     
  11. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Ilyasova would be perfect. However with OJ Mayo, Ridnour and Sanders I cannot think of what the Rockets could trade that would clear enough cap room. Or what the Bucks would even want. Anderson would be adequate. but his defense is not adequate. It evidently difficult to find power forwards who can both play defense and shoot 35%+ from behind the 3 point line.
     
  12. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    Because a 2 point lay-up is a better shot that a 3 point shot from a 4???

    you never countered after your mistake of assuming the 2 guard was going under instead of over
     
  13. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Since there is so little understanding about McHale's (Morey's) offense, I am working on a post that dissects it, along with supporting documentation. I have finally realized that most people do not understand what I am talking about because they do not understand what the Rockets offense is, nor do they have a grasp of the underlying tactics, research and statistical analysis that supports it.
     
  14. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    This has nothing to do with that - I just showed you how Asik at the 4 could work better than with a stretch 4 on the PnR and your criticism was that you thought the 2 guard was going under the pick instead of over it (which if you watched even your own tape you'd see most of the time the pick goes OVER and NOT under).

    Can't you just admit when someone has made a point? Is that so hard?
     
  15. jtr

    jtr Member

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    I knew what your diagrams were saying, I just did not want to get into discussions about the pick and roll in a thread with a focus on a completely different subject. And I do not care to enter that discussion now. A 2 - 5 pick and roll has nothing to do with the power forward position, which I was hoping to discuss except in the most off handed way. Start a pick and roll thread if you want.

    While the pick and roll is conceptually simple, it actually is extremely complicated for both the offense and the defense. What you diagrammed was a failed read on the offense (the pass to the 3 or the 2-4 swing is the correct read). And I really do not want to talk about pick and roll here.

    And again, I am working on a new thread. It will at least mention the pick and roll. It will also have much more discussion about the overall offense and why teams value the 3 and D player so highly today.
     
  16. rocketsfan4

    rocketsfan4 Member

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    I am getting so tired of people not understanding the value of a 2-point shot, especially from a big man. So here it goes.

    Because a 2-point shot from time to time:
    1. Changes things up--it becomes easier and predictable to play defense if you know the offense is only going to shoot 3-pointers and layups, and nothing in-between.
    2. Shooting from closer to the basket puts you (especially if you are a big man) in better offensive rebounding position and prevents the defender from being to leak out on a fastbreak (also prevents long rebounds).
    3. There is less setup time to take a 2-pointer than a 3-pointer, in that the ball rotates to you more quickly off the pass, you can release more quickly, so it is harder for the defense to react. Whereas on a 3-pointer, you really need to be balanced and get your weight behind the shot or else you won't make it. In the playoffs, defense is amped up and refs swallow their w
    4. It is easier to make a 2-pointer when you are tired in the 4th quarter than a long 3-point jumper.
    5. It is far easier to make a 2-pointer when you have not yet warmed up or when you haven't shot in awhile than to chuck up a 3-pointer cold. This is BASIC.
    6. When there is some contact (playoffs/end-of-game physical play), you've got way more margin for error shooting closer to the basket than trying to hit a 3-pointer, where the slightest bump or grazing of your shooting arm (often NOT called as a foul) will throw off your shot.
    7. It is easier harder to get your pass intercepted when you make a pass to someone for a 15-17 footer than when you have to swing the ball all the way back out to the arc. Moreover, it is easier to pass on-target, and the receiver to catch it. Furthermore, the shooter doesn't have to check his feet to be sure that he is behind the line or too close to step out of bounds (especially on baseline threes).
    8. You've already got 2-3 other guys (e.g., Parsons, Harden, Lin ) standing around the 3-point line, so it is much easier to find space and a passing angle for either a big to swing the ball to you or an off-balance driving guard to sneak the ball over to you to shoot a 2-pointer.

    Look, I love the 3-pointer, and it is a key, necessary, and critical part of the game. But so is the midrange 2-pointer. I don't love the 21 foot 2-point shot, but the 14-17 foot 2-pointer absolutely has its place in the game.
     
  17. jtr

    jtr Member

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    And so why does the 3 point shot average 0.3 pps more than the 2 point shot? Because the mid and long range 2 point shot is truly a garbage shot only better than an end of quarter half court heave. And if you turn it around the 3 point shot (1.08 pps) is 36.7% better than the mid and long range 2 point shot (0.79 pps). And this is not some esoteric advanced stat. It is league based and has been stable for at least the last 6 years that I know of.
     
  18. luckytxn

    luckytxn Member

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    Lol



    Totally agree with you on the 2 or 3 pointer. We can obviously see that the Rockets agree because they also value the 3 or close in 2 pointer. The Rockets also seem so far to keep using this strategy.

    The arguments seem to be that if we do get a PF that has a good 2 point shot but a bad perimeter shooter is OK as at least they make the 2 pointer at a high rate.

    I also can't see why the Rockets would all of a sudden veer away from what seems to be established team policy than they are now pursuing. The only need for arguments sake to have is what PF fits into this team philosophy the best and not why they should go after a player and then just try to fit them in. (Play with what we have)
     
  19. jtr

    jtr Member

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    I have written a long article on the least understood facet of the Rockets offense. It is currently missing only one shot chart. Expect it tomorrow.
     
  20. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    You fools. There is no power forward position.
     

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