Trust me don't take it personally. I guess I am a prickly baby boomer. Every day is a new day for me, and it will not affect my attitude towards you, which to be honest is positive. Best to you and yours.
I'm very surprised that not one of them mentioned Omer. Did these fellows follow the league last season??
My opinion is still that a FULLY healthy Dwight is the best center in the NBA. I gotta say though, I really, really like Marc Gasol. I'm not going to go back on my words since we got Dwight, I think Marc is the best center if Dwight isn't FULLY healthy.
Drummond is the classic high risk high reward pick, it's amazing how much his attitude changed once he got drafted. To be quite honest there's a lot of amazingly athletic big men in the NBA, the problem is most of them are either just cashing in on their height (ala Thabeet), they have attitude problems (Cousins), or they just happened to be dumb as rocks (Slowmile Swift, DJordan). If you had the number 1 pick would you choose Drummond with so many questions over a certified blue chip like Davis or MKG? Sure it looks like a no-brainer now but at the time you only had one shot, you don't want to be the guy who passed on blue chips Melo, Wade and Bosh because Darko Milicic was doing amazing stuff at only 18 years old.
At this point in time, Omer is considered an elite rebounder, an elite defender and a terrible offensive player. I'm not sure what category that fits in, he doesn't seem under or overrated and he isn't nor going to be the best player at any point.
If Drummond does not improve his FT shooting substantially he will simply become another version of Deandre Jordan, a liability in crunch time UNLESS he rises to Ben Wallace or Dwight Howard level defensively. I still believe this kid is going to disappoint the same way Benoit Benjamin disappointed. He'll show glimpses of potential that make most everyone salivate at what he could be and after about another 5-7 years everyone will wake up and realize he is mediocre. It all starts in the heart of the player. I have seen zero heart from Andre. Compare his work ethic to Tyler Zeller or to Karl Malone (to bring up a name from the past of a poor FT shooting young big entering the league) or Tim Duncan. It's not there. How many free throws is Andre putting up this summer? Practically none. He'll come bsck next year with the same 30% average and everybody will be talking about mental block, etc. when the whole problem is his desire and love for the game. Once his rookie deal is over and he fools some idiotic GM to throw him $60-80 million, the chance of him improving will be gone and he'll turn into the worst contract in the league. Andre plays for money not because he loves the game. I hope I am wrong. Hate to say these things about a player. But Drummond has shown nothing over his rookie campaign to change how I feel about him.
Since the big man put up combine numbers of a point guard and weighed 280+ pounds yes I would. But the professionals had a different opinion. I am good with that.
Spoiler NBA centers represent a disappearing position, stricken from the All-Star ballots just last season. I've received a few queries about using traditional positional designations as a basis for ranking players, and I understand the concerns. However, I'm not in the camp of those who believes that positions no longer exist. There's no denying that there has been an evolution of where NBA production and value comes from over the years. That has been perhaps the dominant theme of this rankings series. Consider this chart, which breaks down WARP by height during the 3-point era. Code: Percent of WARP by height, 3-point era Height 80s 90s 00s 10s 6-3 and under 20% 26% 25% 24% 6-4 to 6-6 20% 19% 18% 14% 6-7 to 6-9 33% 27% 31% 29% 6-10 and above 27% 27% 26% 32% The average height in the NBA has barely changed over time, but the value derived from big men is higher than ever. What's disappearing is the prototypical 2-guard, who offers neither elite quickness nor elite length. Although the league is getting increasingly small, big men are as important as ever, whether you call them centers or not. As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH, you may recall, is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA. With the pieces falling into place, let's take an early stab at ranking players by position. Keep in mind that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science. Players are ranked according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level, which accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context. Here are the projected top 10 centers for the 2013-14 NBA season: 1. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets Projected 2013-14 WARP: 13.2 Howard is coming off his worst season since his rookie year, and ATH has him bouncing back to a level roughly equivalent to his third season. Because of his history of back trouble, you can't dismiss last year's dip in rebound rate as a fluke. However, his block rate was higher, so not all the athletic indicators were down. Howard's foul-drawing rate is always hard to read because of how often he is intentionally fouled, but it was strong last year as well. In his last fully healthy season, Howard put up 20.5 WARP, and that's the championship-caliber center the Rockets hoped they signed this summer. 2. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.1 Drummond was a monster in limited minutes last year and he was a monster during the Orlando Summer League. Obviously, the ATH system is highly enamored of his abilities. Much of his projected value stems from huge block and rebound rates. He's also a standout in foul-drawing and steals, which makes him 4-for-4 in the categories ATH looks at as athletic markers. Like many a raw, athletic big man before him, Drummond's weak spot is at the line, where he is forecast to hit just 37 percent of his free throws this season. Drummond's playing time projection also is murky. I've got him as the starting center on Detroit's depth chart, with Greg Monroe moving over to the 4 and Josh Smith to the 3. If that alignment doesn't work out because of spacing problems, new coach Maurice Cheeks will have some hard decisions to make. 3. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.7 Cousins has become gradually more accurate from the field as his career progressed but his overall value, strong as it is, is held back by traits identified with lack of discipline: shot selection, turnovers and fouls. The important thing is that the trends in all these areas have generally been positive, with the exception of turnovers. Cousins needs to stop undermining his court time with foul trouble, but if new coach Mike Malone can use Cousins in a way that accentuates his strengths, the upside is immense. 4. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3 After an injury-shortened 2011-12 season, Horford was mostly healthy last year and had a typical Horford season. During three of the past four years, he has posted winning percentages between .558 and .565, marking his career .603 season in 2010-11 as an outlier. Horford can approach that level of value simply by fixing a strangely broken free throw stroke after shooting 9 percent worse than any other season of his career. Perhaps the loss of confidence at the charity stripe explains why Horford became more jump-shot oriented than ever before. 5. Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1 Noah became a central figure in Chicago's offense last season in Derrick Rose's absence, with the offense often running through Noah's fine passing skills from the high post. That led to a spike in assist rate that won't be repeated with Rose back in action. At the same time, a return to typical levels of usage and a focus on offensive rebounding can up Noah's efficiency and help him avoid a slight, age-related decline. One thing seems certain, and coach Tom Thibodeau has said as much: Noah's minutes will be managed more carefully in the coming season. 6. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0 We're still trying to figure out what Monroe will be, and with Drummond ready to break out, this is the time to find out. Monroe's WARP totals in three seasons thus far have been 6.6, 12.3 and 8.4 respectively. Last season, Monroe's efficiency fell because of his lack of a consistent face-up shot and insistence on trying more of them. Over a third of Monroe's attempts as a pro have come outside the vicinity of the rim, and he's hit just 32 percent of those shots. He needs to become a midrange threat to fit with Drummond and take advantage of his solid passing skills. Monroe improving his stroke might be the most important piece of Detroit's puzzle. 7. Al Jefferson, Charlotte Bobcats Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8 Sometimes I think we become so fixated on what Jefferson isn't good at -- defense -- that we lose sight of the fact that he's a very good interior scorer during a time in which that skill is in short supply. It feels like Jefferson has been around a long time, but in fact he's almost the same age as Noah. Sure, Jefferson needs to excise some of the bad jumpers out of his game but then again, he's always stuck on bad teams starving for the points. Unfortunately, that may not change right away in Charlotte. 8. JaVale McGee, Denver Nuggets Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.3 Statistically, McGee was underused by George Karl last season, but the fact of the matter is that Denver's starting five functioned better with Kosta Koufos in the middle. Well, Koufos is gone, as is Karl, and this is the season we'll find out if McGee can turn his fine part-time production into a full-time, star-making role on a good team. 9. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.2 Gasol really came into his own last season and his projected decline is one of the more perplexing results ATH spit out this summer. It's not a defensive regression -- his defensive rating is actually forecast to improve from 106.1 to 105.4. At 7-1, 265 pounds, Gasol is part of a distinct historical group, one that portends a regression in athletic factors at age 29. He's still a fine player, but the Grizzlies can't really withstand a four-win decline from him. 10. Chris Bosh, Miami Heat Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.8 Bosh is a jump-shooting big man, soft on the boards and isn't an elite rim protector. He's also capable of doing much more than he's asked to do on the Heat; just how much is no longer clear after his three seasons as the third option in Miami. One of the most interesting stories in the Miami season will be whether Dwyane Wade is babied through the regular season, and if so, whether Bosh will be able to pick up the slack. Next five: Anderson Varejao, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan The solid but unspectacular rankings of four of these five centers can be explained by age, injuries, a skill set too slanted toward one end of the floor, or all the above. But all of them can help teams win. The one player I want to pinpoint here is Lopez, who I think subjectively should be in the top 10. Lopez went from two seasons of just under a .500 winning percentage (in 82 and five games, respectively) to .629 last year. The most impressive part of that gain was his improved rebounding and shot-blocking, and I'd be surprised to see him regress as ATH forecasts him to do. Like all the Nets, his usage rate is projected to fall because of the new lineup, but if Jason Kidd is smart, he'll keep the offense focused around Lopez and Deron Williams, while Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett fill roles. If that happens, Lopez is easily a top-five center. Also notable: Roy Hibbert, Andrew Bynum The players I get the most guff about are the ones freshest in our memories. Hibbert was so good against Miami in the Eastern Conference finals that we forget how rough most of his regular season was, when he hit just 44.9 percent on 2-point shots. Two of Hibbert's last three seasons have been similar, so ATH's pessimism is understandable. While his offensive performance is variable, Hibbert is clearly one of the most valuable defenders in the league and I still think we have a way to go to properly value that kind of player statistically. As for Bynum, I think we all understand what's holding back his projection. Keep in mind Bynum's 2011-12 WARP, before last year's missed campaign: 12.1. A healthy Bynum is an All-Star player. Link
It's not so much WARP, as it is the projection system. I'm sure the projection system is a very complicated regression system where it takes into account everything it can as a indicator including historically similar physical players. Like he says in the article, Gasol scored worse because of how historically 7-1, 265 lbs players declined. It also doesn't take into account whether players played hurt or not.
So it is a flawed useles system. Gasol will not decline this much. And the guy running this system should have noted that Pekovic was not in the list, and make a comment on it, he did mention Bynum.
Of course it's a flawed system. If it wasn't a flawed system, every team in the league will have perfect scouting and make zero risk moves. It is a system that they built that they feel are as objectively accurate as they possible can make at this point, flawed or not. It would be an entirely pointless exercise to build a system then adjust at the end because of how it doesn't match perception. I'd much rather read a list like this and debate the flaws of the system vs. perhaps maybe the fact that our perception could be wrong, rather than some Joe Schmo's subjective opinion that probably just reflects people's perception and has no original insight.
I did not get into how this system works, so I cannot comment on how it is flawed. But in all these lists there are a couple of obvious errors. Maybe they are the exceptions that make the rule. But if you create a system, and it ranks Gasol as the 9th center you know something is wrong, and maybe you should change the system. I do agree that it is nice that they try to make these type of systems. But the lists this one creates are so far from reality that I do not see the point of making lists as a result of this system.
But the author is honest about the intended use of this list and at least attempts to provide an explanation to why such chasms between perception and this list exist. The purpose of this list is not to rank the best centers in the league. It is a listed rank of projected WARP (which the author also never claims is a "who's better than who" metric, it is just one form of a production metric), based on historical data. Apparently this system is bearish on Marc Gasol's production next year because historically players at his size have declined at age 29. That is interesting to me.
I don't think that's delusional. He'll defer to Kobe and not demand to touch the ball during actual games. So he fits. It's just the team won't be as good with him.
