ESPN: Aldridge Not A Top 10 PF in terms of projected WARP

WARP, like any other trivially simplistic rating system will tend to represent player value only as a rough approximation of their true value. Obviously there is no perfect player ranking system, but much more accurate models probably populate the NBA offices of teams which are consistently good at evaluating talent. However, using the actual versus expected value as demonstrated by NBA teams success in the draft, leads me to believe that the ranking basketball players is much more of an art than a science.

http://www.nbastuffer.com/component...ew/term,Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)/

WARP, a metric which is invented by Kevin Pelton, stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. The term and concept are borrowed from sabermetrics and, specifically, Baseball Prospectus.

Conceptually, the WARP system seeks to evaluate players in the context of a team made up of them and four completely average players. The performance of this team is then compared to that of a team made up of four average players and one replacement level player. The method also draws heavily on the work of Dean Oliver.
Using replacement level shows the value of players who can play heavy minutes and avoid injury while continuing to perform above replacement level. Using wins gives a measure of value that is easy to understand and constant over time. Lastly, by eschewing the traditional linear weights method so common in basketball analysis, WARP does a better job of incorporating defensive value. Learn more about WARP calculation.
Comments: Like all rating systems based on box-score data, WARP cannot account for contributions that are not tracked in the box score, most notably on defense. It does no better than linear weights methods at evaluating players like Bruce Bowen. Also, it requires a number of assumptions - the value of assists, the trade-off between usage and efficiency, and replacement level. But, this rating system is very flexible. Players can be rated on a per-minute basis (using the theoretical "winning percentage" of the team with four average players), in terms of their offense and defense and in terms of their overall value.

 

Yep. Behind Love.

 

I went to Warped Tour. Does that count?

 

RAPM > WARP

 

Projecting guys like ryan anderson, A Davis, Josh Smith, K Faried, Ibaka to be better than Aldridge next yeat, I don't if you are trolling or trying to be stupid.

 

RAPM really is the best stat out there IMO.

 

Who cares if he's #5 or #15, we'll take him if he's a good fit.

 

Yes, WARP is an incomplete statistic with problems, but I actually do think LMA will be behind most of these guys.

Lebron -> better, duh
Griffin -> arguably better
A Davis -> probably
Love -> probably
Duncan -> better
Ryan Anderson -> nah, he's worse than LMA
Faried -> 50/50 chance
Josh Smith -> 50/50
Ibaka -> 50/50
Carmelo Anthony -> better, duh

LMA is just not nearly as good as CF thinks. He's a top 50 player in the NBA, but probably not a top 25 player, and definitelynot a top 10-15 guy.

 

Could not have said it better.

 

negative ghostrider. LMA would never behind that stat-padder.

 

WARP is a terrible way to rate players, we should just ignore it.

 

I think people would agree that top 10 PFs include the following (give or take 2 or 3 players):

Tim Duncan
Kevin Love
LMA
Bosh
Dirk
KG
Z Bo
Ibaka
Griffin
Josh Smith

Honorable mentions:
Faried
David Lee
David West
Millsap/Jefferson
Pau Gasol

 

Faried is not 50/50 with LMA. Faried is a disaster defensively and while he is super high energy he simply cannot consistently impact the game like LMA can.

I think LMA is a victim of a stacked position. PG and PF in today's game are very stacked.

 

A lot of tweeners though if you think about it. PGs that can/should be playing SG and PFs that can/should be playing either SF or C.

examples:
Tim Duncan
Russell Westbrook
Curry
Jennings
Gasol
Josh Smith

 

This isn't better in the future, this is better than now. You think 2nd year pro Davis will eb better than LMA?

 

Lebron > Yep
Griffin > Nope
A Davis > Not yet
Love > Roughly equivalent. LMA is better defensively and in the post. Love is better a better rebounder and shooter from distance.
Duncan > Yep
Ryan Anderson > Nope
Faried > Nope
Josh Smith > Nope. His defense doesn't make up for lack of shooting.
Ibaka > Close, but not quite. Probably similar on the defensive side (minus Ibaka's shot blocking) but very far apart on offense.
Carmelo Anthony > Yep

So I'd put LMA 4th on this list....tied with Love.

 

WARP is a good concept, but at this point probably not all the way there.

Also, 4 is a problematic position to project since there's so many tweeners nowadays.

Though one should point out that LMA's efficiency was not THAT great last year.

At this point, I think yeah, a mix of RAPM and Winshare is a bit more reliable, I think offensively winshare is really good, but defensively RAPM is considerably better.

 

Lebron and Carmelo are SFs that sometimes play PF just like Parsons can, but they don't start on their teams as a PF.