Realistic Expectation for Isaiah Canaan

ROXTXIA · Aug 5, 2013

I actually think Canaan will be one of Morey's 2nd-round steals. Maybe not on the level of Parsons; I don't want to overreach.

Thing is, for awhile we won't have much idea of his worth. He has about fifty guys ahead of him on the depth chart. And now that we're a loaded-for-bear team, McHale probably won't say, "OK, for the win; where's my rookie?"

That's a shame because I'd like to see what he can do. Hopefully we'll be stomping out a few teams with Canaan not in the RGV and available for enough spot minutes to show his value.

jimmyv281 · Aug 5, 2013

He is gonna be a Terry Porter type of player.

IzakDavid13 · Aug 5, 2013

I like Isaiah Canaan...

He was projected to go in the first round, early 20's by afew experts. His strengths are his ability to hit the 3, although he struggled a bit last season. (38.9% from 45.6% year before)

He reminds me a lot of Lowry when he does the 'bowling ball drive' to the hole, but his main strength will be his ability to knock down those 3 pointers. He is turnover prone, but has been working hard on fixing that area of his game...

From Draft Express:

Isaiah Canaan overcame staggering adversity in the wake of Hurrican Katrina[/url] before traveling north to join the upstart Murray State Racers. A long way from Katrina-ravaged Biloxi, Canaan is now one of the best offensive players in the country. Not only has the junior point guard led the Racers to a 23-1 record and a top-ten national ranking, but he has also established himself as a legitimate prospect in the process.

Standing around 6'0 with a solid frame and wingspan, Canaan is undoubtedly undersized for the point guard position. He is not a standout athlete, either, lacking comparable quickness and explosiveness to most undersized NBA guards. He is able to compensate somewhat due to his quickness with the ball in his hands and his solid body control around the basket, but his physical profile is well below average at the next level.

Despite his physical limitations, he is one of the more prolific offensive players in the country, averaging a stellar 22.8 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted while shooting 47.1% from the field.

While Canaan can do many things well on offense, he is an elite perimeter scorer. In fact, he is one of the most accomplished three-point shooters in the country at a blistering 46.3% from beyond the arc on 7.7 attempts per 40 minutes pace adjusted. He has textbook shooting mechanics as well, complete with solid elevation and range that extends well beyond the NBA three-point line.

More than just a spot-up shooter, Canaan does an excellent job creating space for himself to get shots off, looking just as comfortable shooting off of the dribble as he is spotting up thanks to his outstanding scoring instincts. He's taking more pull-ups than catch and shoot jumpers this season, but is knocking down his off the dribble looks at an outstanding 41% clip, which ranks amongst the best in college basketball.

Canaan could certainly stand to improve his ability to get inside the paint, however, as his lack of elite athleticism and size limit him significantly as a finisher around the basket. Canaan converts just 45% of his attempts around the basket, a very low rate, and on film, it's common to see his shot blocked, as he simply struggles to finish over bigger players. While his strength and body control help him to compensate somewhat, his ability to do more than just knock down tough jumpers is likely scouts' most significant concern looking to the next level.

So, too, is the question of positioning. Canaan is a point guard in the sense that he facilitates the offense and is the primary ball handler for the Racers, but he looks for his own shot first. Even as he thrives in Murray State's pick-and-roll game, it's usually in a scoring capacity. He shows some basic court vision in transition and in drive and dish situations, but there are concerns about whether he has the mentality to distribute the ball effectively when playing with significantly better players around him at the professional level. Canaan's 0.19 pure point rating currently ranks 42nd amongst the 69 players designated as point guards or combo guards in our database.

Yet another question mark presents itself on the defensive end. While Canaan is fine guarding point guards in the Ohio Valley Conference, he is unproven against elite competition and games against Memphis, Dayton, and Southern Mississippi comprise a very small sample size, hardly representative of NBA-caliber point guards. While he can be active and aggressive for stretches, Canaan's lateral quickness looks average at best. He struggles to stay in front of quicker guards both one-on-one and while defending the pick-and-roll, where he lacks the size and strength to fight through screens. Due to his physical deficiencies, it is unlikely that he is ever more than an average defender at the next level. That being said, his struggles seem to be, in part, an issue of consistent focus and effort, as well.

Regardless of Murray State losing their undefeated status last night, Isaiah Canaan has put himself on NBA scouts' radars. The NCAA tournament should offer him chances to prove himself against better competition, which will do a lot to raise his draft stock and quell doubts that he is too small to compete at the next level. Scouts will want to see if he can capitalize on his success this year and develop further as a facilitator, finisher, and defender. It remains to be seen whether or not he will test the draft waters, but what is clear is that if the NBA is not an option, then he should have plenty of suitors at a high level overseas.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2b6eUKUc4
http://www.draftexpress.com

And...
Returning for his senior season at Murray State, Isaiah Canaan and the Racers had a hard act to follow after going 28-1 in the regular season and 15-1 in the Ohio Valley Conference last year. While the team initially struggled somewhat during their out of conference schedule, the Racers have gone 8-2 since conference play began, including a big win over previously undefeated Belmont last night.

Standing 6'1" in shoes with a solid 6-4 wingspan, Canaan is the offensive focal point for Murray State, accounting for nearly a third of the team's offense, third highest amongst top-100 prospects.

While playing the point guard position, true mainly in the sense that he is the team's primarily ball handler and initiator in the half court. Canaan is clearly a shoot first guard, a role that he has been asked to play his entire career at Murray State.

Canaan is a natural scorer, with his primary weapon being his jump shot. While his three point percentage has taken a dive this year (down to 38.9% from 45.6% last year), the shot forms the majority of Canaan's offense, and his overall excellent form indicates that his percentages should likely rise if he is able (and willing) to be a little more selective with his attempts.

Canaan is extremely comfortable shooting off the dribble, ranking #1 in this category amongst college basketball players (minimum 80 possessions) according to Synergy Sports Technology at 1.1 points per possession. The only draft prospect who can compete with him in this area is Trey Burke, who makes a slightly higher percentage of his pull-up jumpers (45% as opposed to 43%) but makes fewer off the dribble 3-pointers, which gives Canaan the edge. Canaan is able to steady himself and get good elevation and balance on his jump shot coming off the pick and roll, with a quick release that is hard for opponents to defend. This ability to shoot off the dribble and coming off of picks provides the primary intrigue in Canaan at the next level.

He's equally as proficient in catch and shoot situations (44%, 1.3 PPP), although he gets far less of these (two per game as opposed to six pull-ups) due to his role as the dominant focal point of Murray State's offense. Canaan does a good of being in position to receive the pass and has an extremely quick release with good follow through, and is deadly with even the slightest bit of separation, something that he isn't afforded with regularity due to opposing teams game planning against him. As a freshman, carrying a much lighter offensive load, Canaan made 48% of his 3-pointers on a healthy amount of attempts.

Canaan doesn't possess an incredible first step, and isn't a tremendous athlete in general, but he is very quick with his dribble and maintains excellent control, allowing him to play faster with the ball in his hands than his overall athleticism would indicate. He does a good job changing direction with his dribble, and has improved changing pace this year, something he didn't always do much of in previous years, but will be key if he hopes to have success at the next level. He's very comfortable splitting the pick, presenting another tough move in his arsenal that defenders have to game plan against, and likes to create contact in the lane with his strong, 200 pound frame, often just overpowering weaker OVC guards, drawing plenty of fouls in the process.

Once he gets into the lane he's not always able to capitalize on the attention he receives, however. Canaan isn't incredibly explosive, which presents problems finishing at the rim over length. He is shooting only 49.4% on his two point attempts this season and just 49% at the rim overall according to Synergy Sports Technology, both well below average, especially relative to the level of competition he plays against. He has an array of floaters in the lane which help offset this, and despite his diminutive size, Canaan has a well-developed upper body and does not shy away from contact, allowing him to draw fouls at a fairly impressive rate considering his small stature.

As a passer, Canaan gets the majority of his assists off simple drive and kicks from pick and roll sets, although he's not particularly comfortable in these settings and doesn't have the greatest of court vision or awareness. On the season, Canaan is averaging only 4.3 assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted compared to 3.4 turnovers, giving him a -1.43 pure passer rating, one of the worst amongst point guards in our top-100 rankings. Besides vision, he very much has a shoot first mentality, something that may be needed on the Racers squad, but presents a question mark about how he may respond when asked to play a smaller role at the NBA level.

On the defensive side of the ball, Canaan's physical profile presents some obvious hurdles to overcome. Beyond his lack of size, his lateral quickness appears to be just average, and his attention isn't always there, although this could largely be a byproduct of the amount of energy he has to expend on the other end of the court.

With Canaan's scoring prowess, perimeter shooting ability and comfort operating in a pick and roll offense, he is firmly on the NBA draft radar, despite his shortcomings. With Murray State poised to earn a NCAA tournament bid through the Ohio Valley Conference, some additional opportunities to show himself against legitimate NBA caliber point guards could certainly help Canaan's chances on draft night.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2b6d4gRqz
http://www.draftexpress.com
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RedDragon01 · Aug 5, 2013

Wow, excluding all of the obviously sarcastic responses, there are a ton of posters that have unrealistic expectations of Canaan. Don't hold your breath for him to make the rotation at all this upcoming season.

He can't run a team because he has no court vision and forces passes that become turn overs. In addition, the man isn't going to play good team defense at all his first year, and isn't known for being a solid man defender. So his only upside at this point is his shooting.

Even if there is a trade or an injury, don't expect Canaan to see any playing time on the Rockets. The team will almost certainly find a replacement for the injured/traded point guard before giving this guy a chance in our rotation.

I hope he does well. And it'd be nice to see him get some regular burn in his sophomore year. But he's got way too much going against him to see the floor this year.

It'd be nice if he proves me wrong. But that's a bad bet to take.

IzakDavid13 · Aug 5, 2013

Just for the heck of it:

After a very efficient freshman season, B.J. Young strongly considered entering the 2012 NBA draft, before eventually electing to return to Arkansas. The hope was that Young would build on his promising debut campaign and ride a strong sophomore season to a comfortable position in the first round of the 2013 draft, after improving on some of the weaknesses he displayed as a freshman.

Things didn't go exactly as planned, as Young had a rather disappointing season, both individually and from a team perspective. Arkansas went 18-1 at home, but struggled to win on the road (1-12), and ended up not even being invited to the NIT after losing in the first round of the SEC tournament to Vanderbilt. Individually, Young's production dropped off in many key areas. His scoring rate went down by 10%, in no small part due to his struggles shooting the ball, with his 3P% regressing from an excellent 41% (on four attempts per game) as a freshman to 23% as a sophomore.

On the bright side, he managed to improve his passing rate (4.5 assists per-40 compared with 3.4) while cutting down on his turnovers (2.8 per-40 compared with 3.5), but his struggles as a shooter put a major dent in his overall efficiency.

Off the court, Young had some rocky moments as well. He was suspended in November for a “violation of team rules” (reportedly due to missed classes), and was benched for “disciplinary reasons” against Texas A&M a few weeks back.

On the court, Young remains one of the most electric open-court scorers in college basketball, blessed with terrific quickness pushing the ball up the floor and the ability to finish above the rim. He gets a huge chunk of his offense in transition, as Arkansas ranks as one of the fastest paced teams in the NCAA, but he's also extremely effective here, converting 70% of his shot-attempts in fast breaks situations, while getting fouled 21% of the time.

As you can see in the chart below, there's a case to be made for him as the best transition scorer in college basketball, which is something scouts will surely find attractive considering the significantly faster paced nature of NBA basketball.

Name Team Transition Attempts Per-Game FG% in Transition
Travis Releford Kansas 3.1 76.5%
C.J. Leslie N.C. State 2.6 76%
Maurice Kemp East Carolina 3.5 71.4%
T.J. Warren N.C. State 2.9 71.3%
B.J.Young Arkansas 4.3 70.3%
Tim Hardaway Jr Michigan 3 69%

While nowhere near as effective in the half-court as he is in transition, Young is still a very capable scorer with the potential to get even better with added polish and experience. His offensive instincts are tremendous, as he shows an incredibly wide variety of moves at his disposal to keep defenders off balance, utilizing shot-fakes, jump-stops, spins, behind the back dribbles, hesitation moves and outstanding body control to go along with his explosive first step. He operates at multiple speeds, and loves to initiate contact at the basket, even if he isn't always strong enough at this stage to finish the shots he creates for himself inside the paint.

Young appeared very intent on proving he can play point guard this year, which helps explain the improvement he made in the assist to turnover ratio (1.65/1 this season, 1/1 last season) department.

Although it will depend on the team that drafts him and the style of play they implement, it's not a given that he will have to become a pass-first point guard in the NBA, as there are plenty of combo guard scorers his size who are thriving in today's NBA.

Showing average decision making ability, Young clearly looks more comfortable operating as a scorer, even if he can find the open man in transition or rolling to the basket on the pick and roll.

The biggest questions NBA scouts will ask themselves in the next few months will likely revolve less around his playmaking ability and more around the disappearance of his jump-shot this season.

After making 64 of his 146 (44%) attempts last season (48% of shots with his feet set and 37% off the dribble) according to Synergy Sports Technology, Young regressed badly this year, making just 32 of 137 (23%), not being effective with either his feet set (30%) or off the dribble (20%). He seemingly lost his confidence in his jumper this season, as he appeared to be experimenting with different release points as the year went on. Young's mechanics look much more like someone who can't shoot than those of a knockdown shooter, so how well he's able to shoot in private workouts could go a long way in convincing a NBA team that he has better potential in this area than he displayed this season.

Defensively, Young is a mixed bag. With his quick feet and long arms, he's capable of playing very good man to man defense when he wants to, and he can put excellent pressure on the ball in full-court situations as well. Off the ball, Young is pretty poor, though, as he's quick to get out of his stance and will relax far too easily as soon as his man passes the ball away—which is a real issue considering his team plays a lot of matchup zone, which demands a high level of attentiveness. He loses his focus in longer possessions and gives up on plays when he's not really into the game mentally, closing out with his arms down, struggling to fight over the top of screens, and not really hustling as much as you'd hope.

Even though Young is undersized for the shooting guard position, there's no question he has the tools to be an above average defender at either backcourt spot if he's willing to put forth the effort physically and mentally, something he hasn't always been asked to do throughout his career so far.

Young is undoubtedly one of the bigger boom or bust potential prospects in this draft, as his talent as an athlete and scorer are highly coveted traits in today's NBA, but there are significant question marks about his perimeter shooting ability and intangibles. Character concerns have followed him seemingly throughout his career, starting from when he was expelled from Christian Brothers high school as a sophomore, and then again when he was asked to leave Hazelwood Central high school as a junior.

His stay at Arkansas is not ending on the best note either judging by what his coaching staff is reportedly conveying to NBA teams, so the interview process and background checks will likely play a significant role in where he ends up getting picked and the success he ultimately finds.

Young wouldn't be the first talented young athlete to overcome such concerns and thrive at the NBA level after maturing, and the fact that he is the same age or younger than freshmen like Ben McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Willie Cauley, T.J. Warren, Alex Poythress and Steven Adams certainly bodes well for his long-term potential.

Young has a little over three months to prepare himself for the NBA draft, so anything he can do to improve his body, perimeter shooting or ease the concerns around his off-court concerns will go a long way in solidifying his stock.

Arkansas freshman B.J Young has gotten his college career off to an impressive start, coming off the bench and providing the Razorbacks with a boost of energy, while also leading the team in scoring. The former top-20 recruit from the Saint Louis area has shown that he's capable of scoring in a number of ways, and he's managed to do so in an efficient manner.

Standing 6'3” with a long wingspan, Young has nice size and length for a guard prospect, to go along with a thin, wiry frame should continue to develop and get stronger in time. On top of that, he has outstanding speed and explosiveness, which he further enhances by playing with tremendous energy.
Young plays the role of a scoring guard off the bench for Coach Mike Anderson and the Razorbacks, playing about 24 minutes per game, as part of a balanced attack where nobody averages more than 29 minutes.

He uses over 30% of his possessions in transition, where he's an absolute jet with the ball in his hands and always in attack mode. In addition to his blazing speed, he effectively utilizes change of speed and change of direction dribbles, enabling him to get to the rim at will in the open floor.

In the half-court, Young spends most of his time off the ball and does much of his damage spotting up, where he's proven to be a very capable outside shooter, knocking down a solid 39% of his 3-pointers so far this season. He also shown the ability to pull-up in the mid-range area as well, looking comfortable shooting off the catch or off the dribble.

He combines his perimeter shooting with a lightning-quick first step that he uses to get into the paint off the dribble. He's proven to be an efficient scorer inside the arc, shooting 54% on 2-pointers this season, as he attacks the rim fearlessly and has also shown a nice floater that he utilizes effectively to score over bigger defenders in the basket area.

Perhaps the biggest question with Young as an NBA prospect is whether or not he can function as more of a playmaking point guard, or if he's more suited to primarily play as a scorer off the bench, similar to what he's doing this season at Arkansas. While he looks to have good instincts and doesn't appear selfish at all, he clearly plays with a scorer's mentality and hasn't shown much in terms of facilitating for others, as evidenced by his negative assist to turnover ratio and the fact that his 3.3 assists per forty minutes pace adjusted is lower than any other point guard prospect in our top 100 rankings.

With that said, he hasn't really had the opportunity to play as the primary ball-handler this season, and his ability to get into the paint and create could make him a tremendous asset as a playmaker at the NBA level. Although he doesn't get to run much pick-and-roll this season, he has the potential to be effective as the ball-handler in these situations, thanks to his ability to shoot the ball from deep and his blazing speed to turn the corner off the dribble.

Defensively, Young plays with great energy and has excellent lateral quickness and length, which makes him a pesky on-ball defender with the ability to put pressure on opposing ball-handlers. He may have some trouble with his bigger guards until he fills out more, though, and he will need some work on fighting through screens and better understanding positioning defense.

Overall, Young has certainly emerged as an intriguing prospect, as guards with combination of speed, explosiveness, and shooting ability are highly coveted in today's NBA. While his minutes and role may not change dramatically in the system he plays in at Arkansas, his draft stock could still rise quite a bit as he continues to develop his body and has a chance to show more of his playmaking skills.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2b6gbgv1G
http://www.draftexpress.com
Click to expand...

B.J. Young being groomed to play PG, but once again he is turnover prone.

jocar · Aug 5, 2013

McNultyisDrunk said: ↑

A lesser Scott Machado, perhaps?
Click to expand...

Close! Except the exact opposite. This dude is a pure scorer, Machodo is all playmaker.

meh · Aug 5, 2013

IMO, his floor is Daniel Gibson, a non-descript backup quality PG that can hit the 3. His ceiling is probably Lowry-esque, but as a more natural scorer and less natural passer.

In terms of development, I wouldn't count out anything. If Morey has shown anything, it's that he'll clear the way for a young guy to get minutes. He did it when he traded Alston, then trading Brooks and Battier, then trading Patterson/Morris. I don't expect Canaan to contribute next year. But if he's really tearing things up, don't be surprised that Beverley or Lin gets traded before the deadline.

BONIERO1576 · Aug 5, 2013

I don't think he really has the body to play great defense in the NBA but Maurey has a knack for picking players that have at least one skill that will translate to the NBA. So I'm thinking Nuggets era Earl Boykins, a spark plug type guy that you can bring in to gun off the bench. The problem is that right now that doesn't fill a need for us, since Brooks is a very similar player with more experience and better playmaking.

BabyBatterBoy · Aug 5, 2013

Jameer Nelson

Angkor Wat · Aug 5, 2013

If he plays, two things:

He's either really good or the guys in front of him really suck.

Or injuries. Ok that's three things.

Easy · Aug 5, 2013

A shorter Steve Novak.

khanhdum · Aug 5, 2013

sounds like he could be a jason terry for us

rockbox · Aug 5, 2013

He will be a rotation guy by the end of the year because shooters almost always make it. How many minutes will be determined on how well he can get his shot off against NBA players.

jayhow92 · Aug 5, 2013

IgotNext said: ↑

A rich mans Kyle Lowry.... I hope
Click to expand...

Wouldn't he be a poor mans Lowery?

Tom Bombadillo · Aug 5, 2013

jtr said: ↑

A high expectation for him is to survive the year in the D-League. And not get cut.
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That would actually be a low expectation, considering the contract we signed him to.

<3myrockets · Aug 5, 2013

Lowry/Jameer Nelson hybrid - attack but can hit the outside shot fairly consistently

WAYFARER713 · Aug 5, 2013

Trash juice..

Deuce · Aug 5, 2013

Isaiah Canaan to me has the potential to be a Bobby Jackson type scoring PG off the bench. If he could fill that role, then I would be satisfied!
Bobby Jackson's Sacramento years in particular.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3191/career;_ylt=AnfZZeQ53oSbb9qHi8G4oGMwPKB4

RocketsRed14 · Aug 5, 2013

Give me a poor man's Damien Lillard and I'll be happy.

SuperBeeKay · Aug 5, 2013

Hopefully somebody like Reggie Jackson. Can knock down 3's from the bench

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