Place your bets now... who starts at PF game 1 of reg. season?

Am I really the only one who thinks it's going to be Casspi?

To me he seems exponentially more like to be in the starting lineup come October than Asik or Camby come October 30th.

 

Yes. You are. Just curious, what's your rationale for that?

 

I have a feeling that D-Mo will come back in October much improved. This is going to be his breakout season. But Jeremy did say after the mini-camp that T-Jones' improvement "really stood out".

I like D-Mo. I hope he will prove that hard work pays off.

 

The lesser Dwight Howard. Actually, I voted DMo for his offense, as we will have a top defensive center patrolling the paint. But for putting up a wall of defense, pairing up Jones with Howard looks nice, too.

 

Ability to stretch the floor with 3pt shooting, adequate size (6'9", 230lbs) for the position, and a comparable rebounding rate to Morris or Patterson. In addition, he has considerably more experience than Jones or DMo, and unlike Smith he can stay on the court for longer than five minutes without committing a foul.

Statistically our more productive lineups last year were the ones with Delfino playing the 4. If Casspi can approximate his offensive production while still providing passable defense and rebounding at the 4 spot, I think he's going to get the nod.

 

And how honestly do you quantify the Jones defensive improvement? I do not see anything in the stats and advanced stats that quantifies it.

 

The third most used lineup last season featured D-Mo with Lin, Harden, Parsons and Asik. That lineup was also by far and away the most productive lineup of any with 60 or more minutes. How do you fit the actual facts in with your analysis?

 

When Delfino shared the floor with Lin, Harden, and Parsons (350+ min) we were +5.0 (per 100 pos). When D-Mo shared the floor with those three (~250 min) we were +4.9. And Delfino didn't get benched at the end of the year for bricking threes and being a spaz on defense.

Spoiler

 

If d-mo can make those 3s,

I would like Jones to be the offensive backbone in the second unit.

Therefore, D-mo should start.

 

Tough one. I went with Jones simply because his play seems to have come a long way. That said the Portland fiasco might nix it.

Assuming there are no more moves (risky assumption given that, well, Morey) I think it'll come down to who does well in camp. They are gonna start whoever is playing best and who fits best.

 

I have no idea.


However, I am most interested in seeing how Asik and Howard look at the power spots together. We ended the season starting Greg Smith alongside Asik and had some success with that lineup, going 6-4 with Smith. One of those games was a loss to the Lakers with Pau and Howard grabbing 20 and 18 rebounds respectively while Smith and Asik grabbed 10 and 12. Another loss was a toss-up game with the Grizz where Harden missed a shot late and turned the ball over 8 times. In still another loss, Asik and Smith got worked by Markieff and Scola. I have to believe in all 3 of those games Dwight in there alongside Asik instead of Smith flips those Ls around to W's.

So I am most interested in seeing Dwight and Asik together and I really think that if we can just get through training camp and get these 2 guys jelling that they can be absolutely devastating defensively and on the glass after they learn to play together.

If I were McHale, I'd work the 2 of them together early and often and help them divide up the rebounding responsibility by having them emphasize whichever one is under the defensive glass when the shot goes up that the other guy has to leak out and run the floor...doesn't matter which one...and the rebounder has to look to make the quick outlet pass to generate the break. Offensively...Dwight is the superior offensive rebounder. McHale should coach Asik to give up looking for the offensive board and get back to balance the defensive floor while Dwight can go all-in on the offensive glass.

Defensively..I would have Asik as my primary post defender and defending the pick and roll up top and let dwight roam around a bit. Unless the opposing team's 4 is sitting in the corner lighting it up, Dwight should cheat off and be ready to help out on any penetration. With that setup I think you basically shut off 90-95% of any penetration attempts or possible penetration attempts. Your perimeter guys can play tight and force the good 3-point shooters to put the ball on the floor and step inside the 3-pt arc where they'll have to decide to drive right into the teeth of Asik and Dwight or settle for the long 2-pt jumper...the shot we want to give up.

So....personally I see all sorts of potential with the Asik/Dwight combo and I can't wait to see how it unfolds on the court. And personally I think the best way to do this is to get both guys in early shutting down the paint early...generating a bunch of fast breaks early...and when we do set up...forcing a bunch of fouls against early. Then after we're in the bonus....spread the floor....give Omer a break...and run the PnR with Harden/Dwight right into a Dwight post-up with shooters spotted up offensively.

I see tremendous defensive potential in an Asik/Dwight power combo and for the life of me I don't understand why Daryl is downplaying this possibility.

 

If Dmo can defend and shoot he can take that spot.

 

DMo..

 

The more important question: Who finishes?

 

Parsons with Garcia/Cassipi on the wings depending on who excells on a given night, unless were playing a team like the grizz, spurs etc who we will need to play bigger against

 

It probably won't be D-mo as he generally played poorly last year. His stats were below average across the board. Jones on the other hand was productive and we finished the season with him. I think it's Jones job to lose followed by Smith who also showed signs of good production. Unless D-Mo lights it up during pre-season he is not the starter. So I'd give it Jones 65%, Smith 25%, D-Mo 10%.

 

Probably Smith, and Asik if that pans out. Jones and Dmo could be a surprise but I don't think DMo is a defensive player. Let's see. We need some D at the end.

 

Jones

 

Casspi and Dmo are similar on defence, I project Dmo gonna improve his defence a lot, with added bulk. Offensively Dmo is easely the best, do to his scoring and ability to make plays. If Dmo improves his defence to acceptable level this year, he should easely be starter. With TJ coming close second with slightly less minutes, Casspi getting 5-8 minutes at max this year.

 

I already Posted in Random trade thread, but anyway:


A three way trade that could be a win-win for each team involved...
It seems LMA (LaMarcus Aldridge) wants out of Portland, Kevin Love isn't happy in the freezing cold hell hole of mediocrity that is Minnesota, and if the reports of Asik being disgruntled are true, ( I believe that story is just media hype...IMO) then a 3 way that sends:

To Portland:
Omer Asik
Terence Jones
Aaron Brooks
& a future protected pick (from Rockets)

To Minnesota:
LaMarcus Aldridge
Rights to Todorovic (& maybe even Llull's rights too?)
2nd Rounder from Rockets

Rockets receive:
Kevin Love
Chris Johnson
Meyers Leonard


All 3 players who are reportedly looking to play elsewhere, and in the case of Asik, start & play a big role on their team, get their wish.

Asik gets to start in Portland & anchor the D there, and I've heard that T.Jones apparently has a connection with some of the locals there already.
Aaron Brooks can go back to Oregon and back up a future star in Lilliard, sometimes going small ball playing together.

Rick Adelman replaces an All-Star with an All-Star who fits his system perfectly.

The Rockets get their stretch 4 in Love, who is also an excellent rebounder esp on the offensive end.
Chris Johnson has shown glimpses of being a defensive pest, who can play above the rim on offence.
& if we could get Meyers Leonard, he could be our back up big guy who could develop into a stretch big, and has a big upside as a shot blocker and someone who can finish above the rim on the fast break.

Imagine a starting lineup of
Houston Rockets
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jeremy Lin
James Harden
Chandler Parsons
Kevin Love
Dwight Howard

Bench
~~~~

Patrick Beverley / Isaiah Canaan
Francisco Garcia / Reggie Williams
Omri Casspi / Rob Covington
Donatas Motiejunas / Chris Johnson
Greg Smith / Meyers Leonard


I could really see Aaron Brooks going back to Oregon via a trade to help us get Meyers Leonard, but Brooks as a 3rd guard is a pretty good option to have. Canaan looks good, but might need some time in the D-League before producing consistently for the Rockets.


While I'm at it...
I wouldn't mind also getting Dorrell Wright for Omri & Reggie. He defends, is an athletic swing man & can hit the 3. But who knows, maybe Reggie & Omri both have breakout career years this season taking wide open looks when teams double Dwight or Harden.

I'm Very excited about this season. Super excited!!!

If the last bit of my sentence didn't make sense, forgive me. I just had an ankle reconstruction and the nurses gave me some morphine & OxyContin for the pain. I feel like John Travolta in Pulp Fiction right now...

Whoop! Whoop! Whoop!


Better stop now, starting to ramble on & on & on & on & on...


What y'all think?