Hypothetically, would you rather he come up and we lose the #1 pick, or he doesn't come up and we get the #1 pick?
If most of our prospects pan out, we're going to be contenders for a long time. Not only that, we will have enough depth to make trades for big time players as well as shell out a little bit of cash in FA once the Comcast deal gets done. Should be fun.
\ Well that goes back to the debate about how OPS is NOT a great stat because it treats OBP and SLG equally... when in reality there's no way they can be given equal weight to each other. If one had to be worth more than the other, statistically, it would be OBP.
If we are willing to spend to keep all of the ones that turn out good around, and spend to add where our biggest needs develop, we could have another long long run of success! If the top arms develop like is possible, could be even better than late 90s to mid 2000s. So many variables in baseball, but the farm has been built the right way
I'd rather not F with a players livelihood/career at the sake of tanking... whether its on our team or any other team. If all the Astros wanted was the #1 pick, then there'd be no sense in calling any player of value up this year (Cosart, Villar). Either they're overvaluing what they want Springer to work on (the 2 strike approach, which again I feel will have to be re-adjusted anyways once he faces MLB level stuff), or they just want him to come up with the rest of the AAA guys at the same time (Singleton, Asher).
Yep, we'll see. He's certainly going to get plenty of playing time. I guessed .280 avg, .720 OPS. I guess we can check back in a few years.
Based on things I've heard from different baseball sources through the years, it is difficult for most prospects to adjust to major league pitching. If a player has a huge problem with his approach at the plate or his swing, the player can just get overwhelmed in the major leagues. MLB coaches try to patch here and there, but are generally working on getting better immediate results than on developing a player. Sometimes, it creates bad habits. I think it is best for the Astros if Springer is ready when he comes up. I don't think an extra month in AAA will hurt Springer or long term effect he will have on Astros. All you would be losing is it taking him a month longer to adjust to MLB pitching. A month too soon in MLB could cause bad habits or hurt his confidence that could last a career. That said, based on what little I've seen...bring the man up!
I understand not calling him up as it applies to super-2 status (as the team may still be forming a contender between now and then)... and we're past that point now, but after 5 years, this team needs to be pretty darn close. If they're not, Springer will be traded anyways (presuming he turns out to be an all-star). If they are close, Springer will get a contract extension that makes the year he becomes a free agent meaningless (again, presuming he turns out to be an all-star, and Crane actually wants to resign players).
Theoretically I see where you're coming from... but I can't recall a player who was "ready" who had his career decimated by being called up too early. On the flip side, there are countless players who outperform their age the second they come up to the big leagues... several examples existing in today's game. Basically, most players who have "it" are going to figure it out regardless of how they're promoted and if they don't, it likely wasn't because they were called up to early as the reason why.
I'm not talking about super-two, I'm talking about delaying his free agency. If you call him up now and he sticks (or before mid-April) he will be a free agent after the 2019 season. If you wait until two weeks after next opening day, he won't be a free agent until after the 2020 season. I don't know what the Astros will look like in 2020, but I do know they have an infinitely better chance to be contenders that year than this year. And the closer we get to the end of the season, the more Luhnow will have to weigh whether bringing him up for a few games in 2013 is worth losing him for the entire 2020 year.
When will they know when he's "ready"? When he hits better at AAA? that'll be kind of hard to do...I agree there's no rush, but hopefully by Septemeber. seems ready to me
Again, see my post above. Chances are, the team knows what they are both by 2019 and 2020. If they're good, they're extending him... if not, they're trading him. Hell, this team needs to be good by 2015 or 2016 otherwise Luhnow won't even be here in 2020. And this presumes he's an all-star to begin with. All this theoretical way of managing players futures is wrong... if a guy can play, and contribute to making the team better, he needs to be in the majors.
Cosart and Villar were on a different end of the prospect spectrum. Their success at the big league level and future role with the team was/is way more up in the air and less predictable than Springer's. They were basically brought up for evaluation, as are most of the minor leaguers that we will see coming up the rest of the year. Springer has a spot in the outfield waiting for him, likely for years to come. They aren't "effing with his career" by not having brought him up yet, or even if they don't bring him up in the next 50 games. As far as his livelihood? Well, that's the brakes. It's a business. He's under contract. What he does when he's a free agent will be what's best for him. Until then, the Astros are doing what they feel is best for them, and I don't blame them, whether the reason is increasing their probability of getting the #1 pick, delaying Springer's free agency a year, or both. I honestly don't understand the impatience. It's less than 2 months of baseball. I guess if I was a younger fan, I'd be eager to see him play immediately, but I could honestly care less if he plays in any of the final 50 games, or if I have to wait until the beginning of next season to see him. Give me whichever option better helps the future of a team who has spent the past 8 years in abject misery. Luhnow and his brain trust have been doing everything right in line with rebuilding this team into a not-too-distant future powerhouse of a ballclub. Trust that keeping Springer in the minors until they feel the time is right is a prudent move as well.
And doing this at AAA will automatically translate to the majors? Like I said before, maybe he needs to be back at AA... maybe the AAA pitching is actually more conducive to promoting his swing away culture.
There's no way to predict whether or not this is a good decision or whether or not they've been rebuilding the "right" way until the year 2020... so I wouldn't be so quick to defend the big club's actions as being the "right way to handle things". The minors were never designed to be a venue to prolong service time... chances are this gets addressed even more in the next CBA (as they did already by accelerating the Super 2 cut-off).
I mean, that works both ways and makes this whole debate pointless. I wouldn't be so quick to criticize their actions as being the wrong way to handle this.
