IF.......... Morey can find a team to take Lin and only send back draft picks (probably a couple 4 second rounders, like the TRob deal) THEN.....the chances that he executes a sign-and-trade with the Lakers becomes a high probability.
Every scenario you post involves trading Lin, it's quite amusing. Love the perseverance. We have the cap room for Dwight via 1) waiving all our non-guaranteeds 2) trading White for no salary back. When Dwight announces Houston, lakers may actually open up to a sign and trade since we can sign outright anyways. We could actually send our non-guaranteeds and white there instead of waiving them.
Look. I like Lin. A whole lot. I like everything about the young man. He's a winner. Great character. Great worker. And I think he's an underrated player. The fact of the matter is you have to read the tea leaves here. Morey shopped him. Why? Because Morey is investigating the possibility of putting together a sign-and-trade acquisition of Dwight that will keep us over the cap and give him a lot more options to build out the roster and compete for a championship THIS SEASON. So, let's be real straight. I am for Lin. I like Lin. That is not what this is about. It's about making this team championship competitive this season. Just trading our non-guaranteed contracts and White to the Lakers or elsewhere to get Dwight accomplishes nothing. That is still using cap space and causes us to lose our exceptions and our Birds rights on Garcia. I am not simply persevering here. I am bringing to your attention what is likely happening behind the scenes. Once again....if Morey can put together a sign-and-trade for Dwight using $15.513178 mil of outgoing salary it keeps us operating over the cap and opens up a lot of options to build out this team, options that can play out over the course of the season, including the trade deadline, etc. Here's more reasoning for you: If we get Dwight it will be because we have told him we are willing to make him a primary offensive option in the post. So, think about it....we had trouble this last season integrating Lin and Harden together with Harden running the pick and roll at the top and leaving Lin hanging around on the wing to shoot jumpers...and then they went back and forth trying to find the right mix...because Lin excels in the pick and roll too. That's all we ran last year...pick and roll after pick and roll....Harden running about 60-65% of them, Lin running about 25% of them and Parsons/Delfino/Garcia running the rest of the leftovers. That's all we ran was pick and roll. If Dwight comes here....that ain't happening. We are running pick and roll from the top with Harden and Dwight and Dwight is rolling right into the post, ball will be swung to the corner and thrown in to Dwight on the low block and then he's operating with spot-up shooters in space. We're paying Lin over $8 million. We don't need to pay a guy $8 million to spot up at the 3-point line on the wing. Bottom line is we can get a better shooter than Lin (although he will be much improved if he comes back) and a guy that can run pick and roll almost as good as Lin if necessary (but the opportunities will be few and far between) for about $4 million or less instead of $8 million. So, you should be able to see the handwriting on the wall here. EVEN IF we don't move Lin in a sign-and-trade for Dwight......he's likely the first guy out the door as soon as we can find a suitable trade that gets us better perimeter shooters and defenders. And I'm telling you...if Dwight commits to Houston....Lin may be gone in the blink of an eye. He may not be a Rocket next week. And he will most likely be gone within a year at most. That's why I keep bringing up Lin trades. I have nothing against the guy. I like everything about him. It's obvious to me that we are going to trade him. That's all.
Btw, Lin wasn't being shopped according to Morey's 790 interview. Look, I agree with you the Rockets have the flexibility to stay over the cap and get the full MLE over the Room Exception but when you think about it, that's only an extra 2.5m. Asik has as much chance if not more of being traded to the Lakers as Lin in this scenario. Furthermore, it depends on what further moves the Rockets are considering. A straight up S&T with Atlanta Asik for J.Smith? Lin will not be traded for pieces, ex. 2-3 shooters. Lin will be more valuable to the rockets if Dwight signs and not less as you imply. Lin as a great passer and distributor as well as a PNR ball handler is a valuable skill set in the event of Dwight coming. Beverley has not proven to have the floor vision or passing ability of a starting PG yet. It's boils down to a difference of opinion on how valuable Lin is when Dwight comes. I think even at 8.3m, he is more valuable to the rockets than trading him for 2 or 3 shooters at 2.7m each. Anyways, Lin shot 40% in the last 41 games last season and has been working on his shot this off-season, I wouldnt say he can't shoot. Lin will only be traded for an upgrade at PG, not for pieces or cap room IMHO.
What if Morey doesn't want waive all our non guaranteed guys? Those guys are on extremely favorable contracts.
I think Lin will be fine on the floor with Dwight. the problem is after next season, he's on the last year of a deal, still counting $8.3 on the cap but we have to actually pay $15 million out. That means he will be virtually unmovable at that point. I am not advocating trading Lin for 2 or 3 shooters. I am saying if Lin can be traded in a sign and trade package for Dwight and we stay over the cap, then we have more flexibility to add shooters and defenders with the Full MLE and the Bi-Annual exception. Right now, the rumors are out that Dwight wants Calderon and Calderon want to play with Dwight. Calderon has held out waiting for what Dwight is going to do. If he stays with the Lakers, that means they could sign Calderon with their taxpayer exception, which is $3.2 million. That's not a whole lot. Calderon is a better shooter than Lin. If he would play for the Lakers at $3.2 million, surely he'd play with Dwight in Houston for the same money. See the difference??
You made a good point and I think we are going to keep Beverley because White was left off the SL roster today and I think they have found a trade for him for no salary back. I also believe what Morey said two days ago on the 790 interview. "Lin and Asik are NOT AVAILABLE" I think Josh Smith was an either/or not together with Dwight. Line-up Lin Harde Parsons Howard Asik as I've said all along. Bring on the twin towers!
Calderon? I know his stats are nice. But <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/rR3NhE8fBs8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
who was guarding him? give Lin time man, with his recovered legs and the work that he is doing now on his 3 point shooting. I am sure he will return to this form stronger. Would be nice if the Rockets reap the benefits.
Was that the game Les was on the phone with Morey and after Lin hit the game winner Les hung up on Morey. "GET HIM BACK!" Now he's back will he say get him out of here! again?
An amazing game and an even better shot, but 1 game or play doesn't prove anything pertinent to this discussion. If Calderon came cheaper allowing us more cap flexibility then I think it's something the team should definitely explore. I'm not saying Calderon is a better overall player, anyone who is isn't being fair. But the skills Calderon excels at fit with what this team is trying to do and the extra cap flexibility is icing on the cake.
if he gets traded I am ok, what I am worried about, is that Morey doesn't him and Clutchfans goes in a massive LOF vs LOH war.
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Thats what I believe is gonna happen: 1)We finalized the T rob trade But only for the international players 2) DH sign with us 3) Hou gets Aldridge for Lin + Dmo+ White + 2014 first and save the 2 seconds from T rob trade 4) We get Carlderon and resign Garcia DH/Asik Aldridge/ TJones Parsons/Garcia Harden Carderon/Beverly/ canaan to optimistic?
There's no way Houston gets Aldridge for only Lin Dmo White and a first round. Why in the hell would they need Lin when they have Lillard?
I don't understand your obsession with the "stay above cap" strategy. Yes, the math works, but you have to take into account the value equations in the trades. There's simply no way a S&T for Howard with Lin/TRob/Garcia/White etc would work. You would have to give up considerable value (1st rounders for foreseeable future, Asik or even Parsons) to fully compensate all trading partners in such a case. When LBJ and Bosh left their teams in 2010, with pretty much zero leverage the Cavs and Raptors got pretty much all the picks the Heat could trade and no salary back. The difficulty to force the Lakes into a S&T while taking salary takes with so little valuable assets going out as you suggest is tremendous. As I mentioned before, it is just easier to trade Lin for the shooters/defenders you would like if you really want to part way with Lin. Salary cap situations can be complicated, but trades always have value equations behind it. Think about it this way. Signing Howard would save us the compensation for the Lakers, while we have to pay a third team in a trade of Lin for whoever you want. Trading for Howard would cost us a lot for the Laker's cooperation, while giving us the MLE which we can sign someone outright without paying another team. My point is that the compensation the Lakers would demand is greater than another team would demand for a S&T (or straight up trade) of a MLE type of player. In addition, your route is much more dependent on your trading partners, and therefore you are more likely to lose the trade due to lack of leverage.
I am not obsessed with over-the-cap. Just trying to provide balance to the possible acquisition of Dwight. There is the possibility of a sign-and-trade and I firmly believe Morey has and is investigating it. The beauty of the way that Morey manages the cap is he puts himself in a position to go either way. He walks the knife's edge to be able to go under the cap or over the cap. What I am saying is you have to consider the possibility of this happening. The reason why I seem obsessed with it is I'm the only one here that is talking about the possibility. I could easily say that you and the rest of this board is obsessed with signing Dwight outright. All I'm saying is that is not the only possibility. And...history is on my side. Most of these big time premier free agent acquisitions go down as sign-and-trades ultimately. The other reason why I keep bringing up sign-and-trade. It took Miami a wasted season b4 they could get their full TPE and bring in Battier and then win a ring. That should tell us something. Could we win a ring by signing Dwight outright this season? Possible but HIGHLY UNLIKELY. If Miami and the Big 3 couldn't do it until they added Battier and the other pieces...do you really want to buck those odds??? This is why I FAVOR a sign-and-trade BUT I would take the acquisition of Dwight no matter how it comes. As far as how the Big 3 deal went down....the difference in value between the 27th to 30th picks and second rounders is negligible. In the Lakers case, they'd probably prefer second rounders...especially in next year's draft. But if they don't..change them to first rounders. Why should we care? With Dwight and Harden this team is going to be drafting between 27 and 30 for the next 5+ years. It's the same thing as Miami. So, we'll keep the second rounders and let Morey clean up with them. The trade is not dependent on LA accepting second rounders. We can easily move to first rounders if that gets it done. Second rounders keep their cap space open and gives them the opportunity to dip into the deep 2014 draft class with non-guaranteed contracts like Morey just did with Isaiah Canaan. So, essentially the Lakers can pick and choose on the draft picks. The other differences: In Miami's case there was an incentive on the player's part to get the extra year on their contracts by signing and trading. That incentive no longer exists. There is no incentive for either player and team regarding a player's contract in a sign-and-trade or outright signing in free agency. Dwight's getting the same contract whether he signs outright or whether he is signed-and-traded. And the other difference is Miami HAD to move Beasley to create the space to sign the Big 3 outright. There was no way for them to put together a multi-player deal to stay over the cap and have their full TPE available. They had one move.....take those players into cap space. The big factor that we have with the Lakers is we have the ability to sign Dwight outright as long as we can package up Smith with White and cash and a future first rounder. That should definitely be enough to get White and his Winnebago out of town. There is no way that 28 other teams are going to collude to stop us from moving White. So, we have the ability to sign Dwight outright and leave the Lakers with literally N-O-T-H-I-N-G. You tell me....is N-O-T-H-I-N-G better than draft picks, a young talent in Smith, cash and further salary cap savings, and a huge $20.5 million TPE???????
